prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 12 Michigan State 73 49.7, 243 Eastern Michigan 14 9.8
93% 67 North Carolina State 42 40.9, 233 Presbyterian 0 14.8
93% 38 Cincinnati 31 41.4, 214 Miami - Ohio 24 16.8
93% 24 Boise State 34 43.5, 207 Louisiana - Lafayette 9 15.7
91% 145 Eastern Illinois 63 43.8, 248 Austin Peay 7 14.9
91% 72 Washington 45 45.9, 232 Georgia State 14 23.3
91% 70 Northern Iowa 46 34.8, 224 Northern Colorado 7 12.8
91% 19 Harvard 41 39.4, 120 Holy Cross 18 19.9
91% 11 Georgia 66 50.5, 215 Troy State 0 15.5
91% 3 Oregon 38 48.3, 136 Washington State 31 28.2
90% 77 Fordham 49 36.4, 213 Columbia 7 21.3
90% 6 Texas A&M 58 45.5, 182 Southern Methodist 6 18.6
89% 14 Nebraska 41 39.1, 50 Miami - Florida 31 24.8
89% 1 Florida State 23 41.1, 10 Clemson 17 29.0
88% 153 North Texas 77 44.0, 249 Nicholls State 3 18.3
88% 118 Towson 31 33.5, 231 North Carolina Central 20 14.6
88% 97 Tennessee State 10 40.3, 242 Tennessee Tech 7 14.0
88% 23 Wisconsin 68 37.6, 116 Bowling Green 17 20.4
88% 13 Brigham Young 41 35.3, 98 Virginia 33 19.5
86% 55 Penn State 48 33.8, 197 Massachusetts 7 14.1
86% 9 North Dakota State 22 31.5, 88 Montana 10 13.8
85% 89 Alabama State 42 45.2, 234 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 22.0
85% 65 Duke 47 38.1, 203 Tulane 13 23.0
84% 108 Minnesota 24 33.1, 183 San Jose State 7 21.2
83% 168 Ohio 36 35.8, 240 Idaho 24 20.3
83% 32 Louisville 34 38.2, 218 Florida International 3 17.4
82% 76 Eastern Kentucky 49 32.7, 184 Tennessee - Martin 24 21.2
81% 106 Houston 47 37.4, 216 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 20.7
80% 172 Samford 63 36.4, 229 Virginia Military 21 26.9
80% 91 Albany 37 28.6, 222 Rhode Island 20 15.1
80% 71 Dartmouth 35 31.8, 157 Central Connecticut 25 19.9
80% 46 Marshall 48 37.7, 171 Akron 17 26.4
79% 87 Temple 59 33.3, 174 Delaware State 0 20.2
79% 86 Dayton 31 29.7, 185 Robert Morris 7 13.4
79% 4 Alabama 42 30.8, 28 Florida 21 16.9
78% 156 Fresno State 56 33.8, 192 Southern Utah 16 24.7
78% 58 Coastal Carolina 48 36.7, 186 Florida A&M 3 23.2
78% 48 Arizona 49 37.0, 134 California 45 26.2
75% 35 Villanova 49 33.1, 74 James Madison 31 22.9
73% 62 Youngstown State 52 37.9, 158 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 25.5
73% 33 South Carolina 48 33.1, 154 Vanderbilt 34 20.3
72% 191 Abilene Christian 21 50.9, 245 Incarnate Word 0 30.3
72% 42 Georgia Southern 28 39.4, 188 South Alabama 6 28.7
71% 61 Oregon State 28 33.2, 99 San Diego State 7 24.9
70% 113 Toledo 34 38.2, 123 Ball State 23 32.0
67% 176 Alcorn State 52 34.0, 237 Mississippi Valley Sta 9 25.0
66% 16 Utah 26 34.5, 60 Michigan 10 28.5
65% 111 Colgate 27 32.2, 149 Cornell 12 26.1
65% 81 Central Florida 41 32.3, 122 Bethune - Cookman 7 22.4
63% 209 Western Michigan 45 40.0, 210 Murray State 14 35.3
63% 175 Stephen F. Austin 35 37.5, 204 Weber State 20 30.5
63% 163 Buffalo 36 28.0, 173 Norfolk State 7 21.9
63% 114 Old Dominion 45 34.7, 195 Rice 42 27.9
62% 137 Memphis 36 37.7, 150 Middle Tennessee State 17 33.9
62% 127 Northwestern 24 28.2, 151 Western Illinois 7 23.6
62% 84 Boston College 40 24.6, 82 Maine 10 19.0
61% 223 New Mexico 38 35.3, 238 New Mexico State 35 32.7
61% 152 Drake 21 20.5, 164 Marist 6 15.9
61% 80 Duquesne 30 29.9, 83 Monmouth 21 26.0
60% 217 Texas Southern 45 28.3, 227 Alabama A&M 23 24.9
60% 212 Morgan State 38 29.0, 220 Howard 35 26.9
60% 165 Wyoming 20 29.5, 179 Florida Atlantic 19 26.3
60% 155 Wake Forest 24 27.6, 178 Army 21 24.8
60% 135 Illinois 42 30.5, 147 Texas State - San Marc 35 26.8
60% 128 Arkansas State 21 28.2, 107 Utah State 14 26.1
60% 102 Missouri State 33 33.5, 140 Central Arkansas 31 31.7
60% 54 Arkansas 52 35.0, 36 Northern Illinois 14 32.9
60% 49 New Hampshire 29 32.5, 93 Richmond 26 30.9
59% 69 East Carolina 70 36.8, 51 North Carolina 41 35.4
58% 189 South Dakota 28 26.0, 160 Northern Arizona 21 24.8
58% 79 Eastern Washington 52 40.1, 112 Montana State 51 38.5
54% 31 San Diego 39 31.6, 40 Princeton 29 30.8
53% 75 Maryland 34 27.4, 96 Syracuse 20 26.8
51% 170 South Carolina State 17 15.2, 144 Furman 7 15.0
51% 7 Oklahoma 45 32.6, 30 West Virginia 33 32.4
49% 159 Charleston Southern 20 21.5, 132 The Citadel 18 21.7
47% 241 Morehead State 40 31.2, 244 Davidson 32 31.7
47% 187 South Florida 17 22.7, 146 Connecticut 14 23.3
44% 180 California Poly 42 26.8, 169 Portland State 14 27.9
41% 110 Liberty 38 26.9, 78 Bryant 21 28.3
40% 211 Kansas 24 24.0, 166 Central Michigan 10 26.2
40% 205 Elon 20 37.7, 177 North Carolina - Charl 13 41.0
40% 141 Jacksonville 34 24.4, 73 Pennsylvania 31 28.7
40% 101 Yale 54 28.8, 56 Lehigh 43 30.1
40% 68 William & Mary 33 25.4, 39 Lafayette 19 28.1
39% 221 Southern 34 30.7, 219 Prairie View 24 34.0
39% 27 Auburn 20 31.4, 29 Kansas State 14 34.8
37% 109 Rutgers 31 26.2, 94 Navy 24 32.2
36% 59 Iowa 24 22.1, 57 Pittsburgh 20 27.4
35% 202 Colorado 21 31.0, 138 Hawaii 12 36.2
35% 198 Gardner - Webb 43 17.8, 115 Wofford 36 24.3
32% 181 Northwestern State 30 28.8, 126 Louisiana Tech 27 38.1
30% 117 Bucknell 36 20.0, 64 Sacred Heart 20 30.9
25% 143 Georgetown 17 20.4, 41 Brown 3 30.2
23% 226 North Dakota 13 17.5, 104 Stony Brook 3 30.0
20% 225 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 26.2, 105 Southeast Louisiana 23 38.4
19% 235 Southern Mississippi 21 19.1, 90 Appalachian State 20 35.1
18% 206 Purdue 35 22.3, 53 Southern Illinois 13 36.2
16% 45 Georgia Tech 27 24.5, 26 Virginia Tech 24 33.9
14% 228 Grambling 40 19.7, 130 Jackson State 35 36.3
11% 44 Mississippi State 34 15.8, 5 Louisiana State 29 32.9
10% 142 Indiana 31 27.1, 15 Missouri 27 47.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 1.02 29 1.10 18 1.02 26 0.90 10 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 102 75 74.1 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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