prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 82 Montana 38 35.9, 230 Northern Colorado 13 11.7
94% 31 Illinois State 55 50.7, 247 Austin Peay 6 9.3
94% 21 Nebraska 45 41.7, 141 Illinois 14 22.9
94% 11 Louisiana State 63 48.3, 233 New Mexico State 7 11.6
94% 4 Georgia 35 44.6, 94 Tennessee 32 22.3
93% 13 Michigan State 56 37.0, 171 Wyoming 14 12.8
93% 10 Wisconsin 27 44.4, 178 South Florida 10 13.7
92% 165 Central Arkansas 52 46.4, 249 Nicholls State 18 19.3
92% 92 San Diego State 34 38.2, 218 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 21.1
92% 44 Kansas State 58 38.0, 200 Texas - El Paso 28 16.2
92% 40 Coastal Carolina 31 41.2, 202 Elon 3 17.2
92% 8 Ohio State 50 43.7, 63 Cincinnati 28 27.3
91% 36 Louisville 20 35.2, 159 Wake Forest 10 17.0
91% 22 Auburn 45 43.4, 157 Louisiana Tech 17 22.1
91% 20 Texas Christian 56 33.4, 210 Southern Methodist 0 11.6
91% 14 Oklahoma State 45 44.6, 136 Texas Tech 35 23.4
91% 7 Clemson 50 45.5, 68 North Carolina 35 27.8
91% 3 Baylor 49 49.8, 116 Iowa State 28 28.0
90% 33 Princeton 56 53.5, 241 Davidson 17 16.6
89% 155 Central Connecticut 38 32.8, 239 Rhode Island 14 14.2
89% 119 Montana State 29 35.7, 208 North Dakota 18 22.0
89% 41 Northern Iowa 50 40.3, 228 Tennessee Tech 7 13.7
89% 29 Virginia Tech 35 41.3, 173 Western Michigan 17 18.5
88% 220 Delaware State 35 39.6, 252 Savannah State 10 16.0
88% 30 Yale 49 46.6, 181 Army 43 21.4
88% 16 Mississippi 24 41.6, 133 Memphis 3 23.3
86% 38 Georgia Southern 34 38.8, 125 Appalachian State 14 22.3
85% 83 Tennessee State 27 29.4, 219 Florida A&M 7 10.5
84% 146 Alcorn State 56 38.4, 212 Southern 16 25.9
84% 103 Virginia 45 34.2, 198 Kent State 13 17.8
84% 89 Jacksonville State 52 42.2, 226 Murray State 28 27.9
84% 79 Alabama State 38 39.5, 174 Texas Southern 3 26.6
84% 53 Albany 42 30.7, 223 Columbia 7 10.5
83% 129 Southeast Louisiana 63 43.6, 245 Incarnate Word 7 21.2
83% 124 California 59 38.7, 194 Colorado 56 28.1
83% 1 Florida State 56 36.3, 66 North Carolina State 41 24.1
82% 112 Toledo 42 37.6, 167 Central Michigan 28 26.0
81% 152 Buffalo 35 33.3, 217 Miami - Ohio 27 21.9
80% 76 Lafayette 35 35.8, 191 Wagner 23 18.1
79% 131 Mercer 27 49.6, 236 Virginia Military 24 32.8
79% 115 Fresno State 35 44.8, 227 New Mexico 24 33.9
79% 111 Sam Houston State 42 38.8, 229 Lamar 10 27.9
79% 50 Texas 23 30.1, 189 Kansas 0 17.8
78% 34 San Diego 20 30.3, 163 Marist 16 16.6
78% 2 Texas A&M 35 44.5, 37 Arkansas 28 33.0
77% 183 Abilene Christian 59 53.3, 251 Houston Baptist 14 28.5
77% 28 Southern California 35 30.2, 64 Oregon State 10 19.0
76% 87 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 33.0, 161 Samford 24 25.1
75% 184 Northeast Louisiana 22 30.4, 231 Troy State 20 19.4
75% 122 North Carolina A&T 38 32.5, 224 Howard 22 22.7
74% 55 Temple 36 31.1, 147 Connecticut 10 22.7
73% 118 Rutgers 31 32.0, 207 Tulane 6 21.0
72% 144 The Citadel 37 28.9, 201 Gardner - Webb 14 18.4
72% 24 Villanova 41 37.0, 142 Pennsylvania 7 22.7
71% 77 Eastern Washington 37 41.8, 209 California - Davis 14 27.1
70% 23 Notre Dame 31 30.4, 86 Syracuse 15 23.0
68% 204 South Alabama 34 34.2, 238 Idaho 10 27.3
68% 140 Bowling Green 47 32.6, 214 Massachusetts 42 25.5
68% 104 Southern Illinois 34 29.4, 154 Western Illinois 17 21.9
68% 56 Fordham 45 34.5, 120 Holy Cross 16 29.2
64% 180 Southern Utah 31 25.3, 221 Weber State 28 19.0
64% 128 Kentucky 17 33.2, 153 Vanderbilt 7 26.5
63% 248 Campbell 34 28.0, 250 Valparaiso 24 21.7
63% 232 Alabama A&M 42 26.7, 244 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 21.4
63% 149 Texas State - San Marc 37 32.4, 193 Tulsa 34 27.5
63% 71 Miami - Florida 22 34.0, 72 Duke 10 30.8
63% 65 Iowa 24 28.0, 168 Purdue 10 21.9
62% 158 Jackson State 33 34.7, 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 30 29.7
61% 172 Norfolk State 15 25.8, 199 Morgan State 14 22.3
61% 162 Rice 41 29.4, 225 Southern Mississippi 23 24.8
61% 97 Nevada - Reno 21 31.1, 160 San Jose State 10 28.0
61% 19 Stanford 20 31.0, 61 Washington 13 27.3
61% 18 Harvard 22 24.6, 67 Brown 14 21.1
60% 105 Colgate 19 23.2, 100 Georgetown 0 20.5
60% 101 Bucknell 20 29.7, 135 Cornell 7 26.8
60% 81 Maryland 37 36.1, 138 Indiana 15 33.5
59% 108 Jacksonville 35 29.8, 151 Butler 7 28.4
57% 60 New Hampshire 52 29.1, 58 Dartmouth 19 28.0
56% 73 William & Mary 27 20.6, 93 Stony Brook 21 19.4
49% 148 South Carolina State 17 22.5, 190 Hampton 10 22.7
46% 213 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 30.6, 206 Tennessee - Martin 27 31.2
43% 170 Northern Arizona 38 23.3, 130 California Poly 35 24.7
40% 211 Grambling 26 31.7, 195 Prairie View 20 34.7
40% 192 Charleston Southern 47 32.5, 187 North Carolina - Charl 41 36.6
40% 121 Maine 27 21.9, 126 Towson 24 24.3
40% 47 Colorado State 24 32.4, 57 Boston College 21 34.2
39% 25 Missouri 21 27.4, 15 South Carolina 20 32.4
38% 177 Ohio 34 26.8, 95 Eastern Illinois 19 32.0
37% 176 Florida Atlantic 41 26.8, 143 Texas - San Antonio 37 31.1
37% 156 Indiana State 38 23.2, 88 Liberty 19 27.6
36% 139 Delaware 30 24.4, 109 James Madison 23 31.3
35% 240 Idaho State 44 30.7, 188 Sacramento State 24 37.8
34% 49 California - Los Angel 62 30.2, 39 Arizona State 27 35.2
33% 132 Western Kentucky 36 31.5, 96 Navy 27 36.3
33% 90 Minnesota 30 22.5, 80 Michigan 14 27.8
30% 175 Middle Tennessee State 41 31.7, 127 Old Dominion 28 40.6
27% 216 Florida International 34 27.3, 169 Alabama - Birmingham 20 37.4
25% 123 Monmouth 28 27.8, 85 Lehigh 21 37.4
17% 137 Northwestern 29 16.6, 48 Penn State 6 30.3
13% 166 Air Force 28 23.0, 17 Boise State 14 37.2
11% 235 Western Carolina 35 16.6, 145 Furman 17 32.3
9% 134 Washington State 28 23.3, 26 Utah 27 40.0
7% 205 Akron 21 15.9, 45 Pittsburgh 10 37.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.63 28 1.07 20 1.13 23 1.02 21 0.98 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 79 78.1 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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