prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 73 Eastern Kentucky 31 43.0, 250 Austin Peay 0 10.1
94% 35 East Carolina 45 47.7, 229 Southern Methodist 24 15.5
94% 1 Florida State 43 43.2, 155 Wake Forest 3 12.3
93% 65 McNeese State 45 54.6, 249 Nicholls State 3 14.5
92% 144 Texas State - San Marc 35 43.1, 240 Idaho 30 24.0
92% 33 Georgia Southern 36 44.0, 238 New Mexico State 28 20.4
92% 12 Georgia 44 44.8, 148 Vanderbilt 17 19.1
91% 45 Princeton 38 46.0, 237 Columbia 6 19.4
91% 43 West Virginia 33 38.4, 178 Kansas 14 17.0
90% 182 Akron 31 37.5, 244 Eastern Michigan 6 20.2
90% 111 Bethune - Cookman 27 32.2, 223 Delaware State 7 13.8
90% 80 Northern Illinois 17 38.2, 225 Kent State 14 15.6
90% 39 New Hampshire 48 35.9, 213 Elon 14 17.8
90% 13 Oklahoma State 37 42.8, 133 Iowa State 20 20.9
89% 100 Tennessee - Chattanoog 55 38.8, 239 Virginia Military 7 18.2
89% 64 Dayton 54 38.9, 242 Davidson 48 16.1
89% 6 Harvard 34 35.5, 139 Georgetown 3 16.5
88% 59 Jacksonville State 38 41.9, 204 Tennessee - Martin 14 22.3
88% 4 Clemson 41 45.7, 52 North Carolina State 0 28.4
87% 16 North Dakota State 17 30.4, 162 Western Illinois 10 15.1
86% 67 Eastern Washington 56 57.7, 235 Idaho State 53 34.1
85% 159 Marist 35 35.1, 248 Valparaiso 7 15.1
85% 149 Middle Tennessee State 37 36.7, 224 Southern Mississippi 31 22.8
84% 89 Colorado State 42 41.8, 196 Tulsa 17 25.4
84% 71 Brown 20 31.9, 233 Rhode Island 13 12.0
83% 186 Norfolk State 14 35.5, 251 Savannah State 7 15.2
83% 44 Coastal Carolina 37 30.9, 172 Furman 31 17.8
82% 183 Louisiana - Lafayette 34 37.7, 234 Georgia State 31 27.9
82% 123 Southern Illinois 41 33.2, 176 South Dakota 10 24.3
82% 58 Montana 18 30.8, 200 North Dakota 15 18.3
82% 36 Kansas State 45 39.5, 103 Texas Tech 13 26.5
81% 41 Georgia Tech 28 35.6, 60 Miami - Florida 17 29.0
80% 113 Southeast Louisiana 30 37.5, 194 Northwestern State 22 25.8
80% 86 Monmouth 51 29.2, 187 Robert Morris 20 18.4
80% 49 Fordham 42 39.1, 94 Lafayette 18 30.8
79% 164 San Jose State 33 30.7, 218 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 22.1
78% 129 California Poly 42 30.3, 193 Southern Utah 39 18.5
78% 51 Oregon State 36 35.0, 190 Colorado 31 23.6
75% 8 Ohio State 52 36.9, 61 Maryland 24 29.8
74% 3 Baylor 28 38.2, 47 Texas 7 28.6
73% 158 Louisiana Tech 55 32.8, 195 Texas - El Paso 3 26.0
73% 34 Illinois State 45 35.8, 55 South Dakota State 10 27.8
71% 132 Bowling Green 36 38.2, 154 Buffalo 35 31.5
71% 2 Texas Christian 37 33.1, 11 Oklahoma 33 24.3
70% 214 Texas Southern 20 33.3, 241 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 23.0
70% 170 Butler 49 37.4, 247 Stetson 41 24.0
70% 15 Michigan State 27 33.1, 20 Nebraska 22 27.1
69% 122 Montana State 59 34.3, 217 Sacramento State 56 25.8
69% 121 Arkansas State 28 30.9, 163 Northeast Louisiana 14 22.2
69% 18 Villanova 41 32.0, 74 Maine 20 23.2
68% 87 Yale 51 36.0, 181 Cornell 13 27.2
67% 83 Jacksonville 29 32.0, 108 Drake 14 25.1
66% 188 Portland State 23 32.0, 205 California - Davis 14 26.1
65% 25 Louisville 28 28.7, 97 Syracuse 6 24.0
63% 135 Wofford 17 28.0, 152 The Citadel 13 23.2
63% 105 Fresno State 24 35.8, 93 San Diego State 13 32.7
63% 95 Toledo 20 38.7, 168 Western Michigan 19 33.0
62% 114 Dartmouth 31 30.0, 146 Pennsylvania 13 24.1
61% 246 Incarnate Word 31 33.0, 252 Houston Baptist 8 23.9
61% 208 Miami - Ohio 42 28.4, 207 Massachusetts 41 25.6
61% 131 Colgate 20 23.8, 143 Holy Cross 17 20.0
61% 96 Rutgers 26 26.1, 84 Michigan 24 23.8
61% 30 Florida 10 28.2, 115 Tennessee 9 24.8
61% 29 Boise State 51 28.1, 92 Nevada - Reno 46 24.6
60% 228 Tennessee Tech 30 33.0, 226 Murray State 27 30.8
60% 220 North Carolina Central 27 28.7, 219 Howard 22 26.4
60% 136 Central Arkansas 49 40.1, 192 Stephen F. Austin 39 36.6
60% 134 Samford 21 42.5, 166 Mercer 18 37.6
60% 77 Virginia 24 30.4, 66 Pittsburgh 19 28.1
60% 70 Marshall 56 39.2, 124 Old Dominion 14 36.3
60% 57 Youngstown State 14 33.4, 112 Missouri State 7 31.6
60% 37 Virginia Tech 34 30.3, 82 North Carolina 17 28.7
59% 102 Bryant 34 26.5, 88 Bucknell 15 25.3
58% 22 Notre Dame 17 22.1, 17 Stanford 14 20.8
56% 227 Southern 51 30.9, 215 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 36 30.1
56% 169 Central Michigan 28 24.9, 157 Ohio 10 24.2
55% 107 Sacred Heart 10 29.3, 128 Delaware 7 28.1
53% 189 Morgan State 24 22.4, 212 Florida A&M 9 22.0
53% 137 Indiana 49 36.5, 109 North Texas 24 36.1
52% 118 Alcorn State 33 32.7, 85 Alabama State 7 32.4
51% 174 Rice 28 28.9, 165 Hawaii 14 28.8
49% 24 Auburn 41 29.8, 9 Louisiana State 7 29.9
47% 211 Gardner - Webb 27 35.7, 203 North Carolina - Charl 24 36.3
41% 153 Air Force 30 29.0, 125 Navy 21 30.4
40% 216 Florida International 38 23.4, 177 Florida Atlantic 10 25.5
40% 202 Grambling 38 27.2, 198 Alabama A&M 28 30.0
40% 138 California 60 34.1, 141 Washington State 59 36.4
40% 99 Richmond 46 27.7, 119 Liberty 39 28.9
40% 28 Mississippi 23 26.3, 5 Alabama 17 28.5
39% 140 South Carolina State 13 20.3, 117 North Carolina A&T 0 23.3
39% 130 Stony Brook 14 21.1, 116 Towson 3 24.9
39% 53 Central Florida 17 28.2, 72 Houston 12 30.8
37% 90 Kentucky 45 25.7, 19 South Carolina 38 32.0
36% 31 Utah 30 27.9, 32 California - Los Angel 28 32.2
34% 180 Army 33 31.7, 120 Ball State 24 36.7
34% 156 Purdue 38 27.3, 150 Illinois 27 31.6
34% 50 Mississippi State 48 28.6, 14 Texas A&M 31 36.5
33% 230 Lamar 24 33.5, 173 Abilene Christian 21 44.9
28% 197 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 23.3, 75 Tennessee State 21 32.6
28% 151 Indiana State 20 21.9, 40 Northern Iowa 19 30.4
28% 98 James Madison 31 22.2, 56 Albany 28 31.1
27% 232 Northern Colorado 24 19.2, 160 Northern Arizona 17 28.3
25% 243 Presbyterian 19 24.2, 206 Western Carolina 14 33.4
24% 145 Memphis 41 27.0, 76 Cincinnati 14 35.6
23% 221 New Mexico 21 27.9, 161 Texas - San Antonio 9 39.2
23% 199 South Alabama 47 21.0, 127 Appalachian State 21 32.4
22% 201 Alabama - Birmingham 42 30.7, 126 Western Kentucky 39 43.6
21% 245 Campbell 31 26.1, 236 Morehead State 24 37.8
21% 209 Prairie View 48 27.4, 147 Jackson State 30 37.5
20% 101 Northwestern 20 21.7, 10 Wisconsin 14 34.1
17% 54 Arizona State 38 24.9, 21 Southern California 34 35.6
14% 106 Utah State 35 19.9, 27 Brigham Young 20 35.3
6% 68 Arizona 31 28.0, 7 Oregon 24 46.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 1.12 36 1.10 24 0.72 23 1.03 14 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 81 82.1 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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