prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 101 Northern Illinois 28 42.9, 245 Eastern Michigan 17 22.2
94% 89 Eastern Kentucky 33 37.0, 214 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 21.4
94% 55 Jacksonville State 49 40.7, 215 Tennessee Tech 3 20.7
94% 39 Marshall 35 46.0, 195 Florida Atlantic 16 23.3
94% 4 Texas Christian 82 46.8, 114 Texas Tech 27 22.1
93% 174 Tennessee - Martin 37 34.3, 249 Austin Peay 7 13.3
93% 83 Colorado State 45 36.5, 185 Wyoming 31 22.0
93% 76 Coastal Carolina 43 37.3, 216 Charleston Southern 22 18.9
93% 16 Villanova 48 45.9, 202 Morgan State 28 18.0
93% 10 Michigan State 35 34.7, 68 Michigan 11 18.1
93% 8 Clemson 16 36.5, 79 Syracuse 6 19.7
92% 209 North Carolina Central 42 40.3, 250 Savannah State 14 21.0
92% 145 Wofford 38 37.4, 244 Virginia Military 3 18.6
92% 54 Georgia Southern 69 42.0, 239 Georgia State 31 21.4
92% 25 Missouri 24 36.5, 140 Vanderbilt 14 17.8
92% 14 North Dakota State 47 33.5, 205 South Dakota 7 13.6
91% 63 Utah State 34 34.6, 218 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 17.3
91% 5 Oregon 59 46.2, 147 California 41 26.4
90% 86 McNeese State 41 41.8, 248 Incarnate Word 21 16.0
90% 35 California - Los Angel 40 42.0, 188 Colorado 37 28.0
90% 20 Nebraska 42 37.5, 109 Rutgers 24 20.6
89% 56 Arkansas 45 42.2, 179 Alabama - Birmingham 17 26.5
89% 43 East Carolina 31 38.2, 171 Connecticut 21 19.2
89% 30 New Hampshire 28 32.6, 77 Stony Brook 20 19.9
88% 122 North Carolina A&T 40 28.1, 212 Florida A&M 21 13.9
88% 117 Liberty 34 37.6, 225 Gardner - Webb 0 22.6
88% 13 Wisconsin 52 35.7, 59 Maryland 7 23.6
87% 112 Toledo 42 42.0, 199 Massachusetts 35 27.2
87% 98 Bryant 42 35.9, 198 Robert Morris 9 19.0
86% 66 Richmond 30 31.5, 203 Elon 10 19.2
86% 21 Kansas State 23 34.3, 48 Texas 0 22.2
85% 149 Marist 27 33.5, 242 Campbell 20 16.2
85% 96 Dartmouth 27 35.8, 234 Columbia 7 20.2
85% 70 Illinois State 21 33.4, 123 Missouri State 7 24.2
85% 62 Brown 42 28.7, 165 Cornell 16 15.8
84% 108 Maine 20 27.6, 232 Rhode Island 14 16.0
84% 1 Alabama 34 32.7, 85 Tennessee 20 18.8
79% 169 South Alabama 27 38.0, 229 Troy State 13 26.4
79% 3 Ohio State 31 33.7, 44 Penn State 24 25.5
78% 82 Cincinnati 34 34.9, 146 South Florida 17 24.0
78% 61 Boston College 23 26.2, 163 Wake Forest 17 16.6
77% 22 Boise State 55 33.8, 42 Brigham Young 30 23.7
77% 19 Stanford 38 27.2, 67 Oregon State 14 16.5
75% 41 Arizona 59 38.4, 134 Washington State 37 32.6
74% 125 Drake 21 28.6, 176 Butler 19 19.2
74% 118 Sam Houston State 38 40.7, 184 Abilene Christian 21 31.1
74% 51 Northern Iowa 27 27.8, 166 Western Illinois 13 20.4
73% 241 Morehead State 48 36.4, 247 Valparaiso 47 28.1
72% 136 Memphis 48 33.3, 222 Southern Methodist 10 20.9
72% 78 Yale 43 37.2, 135 Pennsylvania 21 27.6
72% 46 San Diego 40 31.2, 74 Dayton 29 24.2
71% 71 Albany 24 30.0, 115 Colgate 17 23.0
71% 32 Auburn 42 35.8, 26 South Carolina 35 29.5
70% 152 Western Michigan 42 29.2, 173 Ohio 21 22.4
70% 138 Central Arkansas 58 37.6, 180 Northwestern State 35 30.5
69% 148 Rice 41 32.3, 177 North Texas 21 26.0
69% 124 Navy 41 31.1, 142 San Jose State 31 26.2
69% 9 Harvard 49 33.1, 45 Princeton 7 28.1
68% 53 James Madison 48 45.0, 208 North Carolina - Charl 40 35.6
67% 100 Eastern Illinois 28 31.2, 116 Tennessee State 3 25.5
67% 72 William & Mary 31 27.8, 103 Delaware 17 21.2
66% 81 Nevada - Reno 26 32.1, 168 Hawaii 18 26.6
66% 12 Louisiana State 10 27.7, 18 Mississippi 7 21.3
65% 38 Central Florida 34 29.4, 75 Temple 14 22.9
65% 28 Fordham 48 37.6, 80 Lehigh 27 32.7
64% 143 Western Kentucky 66 42.7, 151 Old Dominion 51 37.9
64% 92 Tennessee - Chattanoog 38 41.7, 189 Mercer 31 31.5
64% 29 Utah 24 30.2, 23 Southern California 21 26.6
63% 153 Ball State 35 28.5, 172 Akron 21 24.6
63% 133 Louisiana Tech 31 32.0, 201 Southern Mississippi 20 27.5
63% 37 Mississippi State 45 30.9, 91 Kentucky 31 27.5
61% 190 Portland State 30 29.1, 230 Weber State 17 26.8
61% 111 Bucknell 22 21.8, 150 Georgetown 17 19.3
60% 236 Stetson 40 37.3, 246 Davidson 34 34.0
60% 183 Texas State - San Marc 22 27.6, 204 Northeast Louisiana 18 26.0
60% 132 Alcorn State 77 34.6, 162 Prairie View 48 32.5
60% 126 Central Michigan 20 31.3, 155 Buffalo 14 29.8
59% 192 Hampton 23 23.4, 221 Delaware State 0 22.1
59% 127 Samford 45 25.2, 167 Furman 0 23.7
55% 207 Miami - Ohio 10 26.1, 178 Kent State 3 25.2
55% 60 North Carolina 28 34.8, 104 Virginia 27 34.1
53% 231 Idaho State 46 35.5, 228 Northern Colorado 12 35.1
49% 33 Arizona State 24 33.2, 47 Washington 10 33.3
47% 73 Youngstown State 30 28.9, 110 South Dakota State 27 29.2
47% 49 Georgia Tech 56 30.4, 64 Pittsburgh 28 30.9
45% 252 Houston Baptist 31 31.3, 251 Nicholls State 21 32.1
40% 226 Southern Utah 35 21.8, 187 North Dakota 17 23.8
40% 128 California Poly 41 30.8, 57 Montana 21 33.7
39% 235 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 38 29.3, 227 Texas Southern 37 35.0
39% 175 Stephen F. Austin 27 36.9, 120 Southeast Louisiana 17 40.4
38% 144 South Carolina State 20 20.6, 84 Bethune - Cookman 14 23.9
38% 141 Illinois 28 27.4, 90 Minnesota 24 30.4
37% 223 Western Carolina 29 28.0, 161 The Citadel 15 32.3
37% 159 Louisiana - Lafayette 55 28.0, 107 Arkansas State 40 31.6
37% 158 Northern Arizona 28 31.4, 102 Eastern Washington 27 36.1
37% 36 West Virginia 34 31.7, 31 Oklahoma State 10 36.5
36% 217 Texas - El Paso 34 26.2, 200 Texas - San Antonio 0 30.8
34% 170 Wagner 20 24.2, 137 Central Connecticut 10 30.2
29% 156 Indiana State 41 21.3, 99 Southern Illinois 26 28.9
26% 121 Holy Cross 24 23.3, 87 Lafayette 14 29.0
24% 40 Miami - Florida 30 22.7, 24 Virginia Tech 6 30.5
22% 210 Alabama A&M 37 23.0, 129 Alabama State 36 32.0
20% 197 Southern 42 28.6, 160 Jackson State 28 35.8
10% 196 Saint Francis - Pennsy 30 22.6, 65 Sacred Heart 27 39.1
6% 238 Presbyterian 18 17.5, 50 Monmouth 12 40.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.09 33 1.00 22 1.10 20 1.04 20 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 82 78.8 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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