prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 143 South Carolina State 59 39.2, 250 Savannah State 7 12.5
94% 70 Youngstown State 28 38.4, 211 South Dakota 17 19.5
94% 68 Dayton 42 46.8, 247 Valparaiso 19 16.2
94% 54 Jacksonville State 56 45.4, 249 Austin Peay 0 9.3
94% 39 Georgia Southern 42 46.7, 232 Troy State 10 18.1
94% 24 Texas A&M 21 43.9, 199 Northeast Louisiana 16 18.1
94% 21 Nebraska 35 42.8, 152 Purdue 14 22.2
94% 4 Ohio State 55 49.5, 140 Illinois 14 22.2
93% 85 Bethune - Cookman 34 36.1, 217 North Carolina Central 20 19.4
93% 8 Baylor 60 47.3, 161 Kansas 14 20.8
92% 23 Missouri 20 36.9, 114 Kentucky 10 22.2
91% 113 Appalachian State 44 44.6, 236 Georgia State 0 24.5
91% 12 North Dakota State 37 33.4, 95 South Dakota State 17 16.2
90% 109 Liberty 28 36.6, 234 Presbyterian 7 21.5
90% 101 Montana 31 40.7, 210 Sacramento State 13 23.5
90% 73 Coastal Carolina 38 38.1, 229 Gardner - Webb 14 23.3
90% 58 Yale 25 41.2, 233 Columbia 7 21.1
89% 129 Central Michigan 38 36.3, 242 Eastern Michigan 7 20.9
89% 61 Eastern Illinois 41 39.0, 225 Tennessee Tech 10 25.0
89% 20 Notre Dame 49 35.3, 121 Navy 39 22.9
89% 15 Kansas State 48 36.3, 38 Oklahoma State 14 23.5
88% 164 Butler 62 37.1, 244 Morehead State 52 23.4
88% 128 Arkansas State 44 37.4, 241 Idaho 28 23.3
88% 28 Fordham 37 39.4, 116 Colgate 13 24.6
88% 14 Oklahoma 59 36.5, 112 Iowa State 14 23.9
87% 9 Wisconsin 37 35.1, 118 Rutgers 0 22.0
86% 124 Towson 21 28.6, 218 Elon 19 16.3
86% 32 New Hampshire 49 34.5, 79 Albany 24 24.4
86% 7 Harvard 23 32.5, 77 Dartmouth 12 20.1
85% 120 Delaware 28 30.5, 223 Rhode Island 13 16.9
85% 50 Princeton 38 34.9, 168 Cornell 27 24.5
85% 25 Southern California 44 38.5, 151 Washington State 17 28.4
84% 106 Eastern Washington 54 39.9, 196 North Dakota 3 25.9
84% 63 Washington 38 37.2, 180 Colorado 23 28.6
84% 5 Oregon 45 34.3, 16 Stanford 16 23.4
83% 84 Memphis 40 38.8, 198 Tulsa 20 23.4
83% 34 Georgia Tech 35 37.7, 104 Virginia 10 27.2
82% 167 Texas State - San Marc 37 35.6, 243 New Mexico State 29 24.8
82% 33 Miami - Florida 47 39.8, 59 North Carolina 20 31.7
81% 230 Lamar 72 46.1, 252 Houston Baptist 14 25.2
80% 69 Cincinnati 38 34.5, 200 Tulane 14 23.9
79% 67 Colorado State 38 34.2, 153 San Jose State 31 27.1
77% 78 Bryant 31 35.6, 159 Central Connecticut 3 24.2
76% 42 Iowa 48 27.5, 89 Northwestern 7 19.6
73% 86 Michigan 34 36.0, 141 Indiana 10 29.2
72% 138 Western Michigan 41 32.1, 228 Miami - Ohio 10 24.1
72% 46 Brigham Young 27 35.0, 170 Middle Tennessee State 7 27.1
72% 36 Mississippi State 17 32.9, 48 Arkansas 10 27.0
71% 93 Tennessee - Chattanoog 51 33.2, 201 Western Carolina 0 25.4
71% 65 Utah State 35 28.7, 178 Hawaii 14 21.4
70% 122 Rice 31 30.0, 219 Florida International 17 21.8
68% 27 Arizona State 19 32.0, 30 Utah 16 27.8
67% 195 Texas - El Paso 35 31.7, 220 Southern Mississippi 14 26.6
66% 231 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 35.5, 238 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 29.9
66% 224 Howard 17 27.7, 227 Delaware State 10 23.7
66% 146 Northern Arizona 29 26.0, 221 Weber State 22 20.6
66% 99 Sam Houston State 42 37.9, 183 Stephen F. Austin 28 30.6
66% 76 Nevada - Reno 30 30.1, 103 San Diego State 14 24.5
66% 57 Houston 27 28.6, 150 South Florida 3 23.1
65% 107 McNeese State 35 34.1, 197 Northwestern State 28 28.5
64% 3 Texas Christian 31 36.6, 22 West Virginia 30 32.0
63% 147 Louisiana - Lafayette 19 34.2, 166 South Alabama 9 29.6
63% 94 Lehigh 27 27.2, 154 Georgetown 19 23.6
63% 82 Sacred Heart 23 27.6, 160 Wagner 7 22.9
63% 47 Brown 21 26.1, 145 Pennsylvania 13 21.6
62% 248 Incarnate Word 38 32.0, 251 Nicholls State 20 27.4
62% 137 Vanderbilt 42 35.0, 156 Old Dominion 28 32.0
62% 105 Bucknell 27 26.3, 97 Lafayette 24 23.7
62% 44 California - Los Angel 17 37.1, 40 Arizona 7 34.8
61% 102 California Poly 35 39.6, 98 Montana State 27 36.5
61% 52 San Diego 17 25.5, 119 Drake 14 22.8
61% 2 Florida State 42 31.4, 19 Louisville 31 29.5
60% 155 Air Force 23 30.2, 191 Army 6 28.5
60% 74 James Madison 31 26.7, 51 William & Mary 24 24.7
60% 62 Northern Iowa 42 27.3, 64 Illinois State 28 25.4
60% 53 Texas 34 30.8, 136 Texas Tech 13 29.5
59% 187 Grambling 35 32.7, 215 Texas Southern 7 30.9
58% 96 Eastern Kentucky 56 22.8, 135 Tennessee State 42 21.5
56% 149 Louisiana Tech 59 35.7, 134 Western Kentucky 10 34.8
54% 206 New Mexico 31 29.6, 209 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 29.2
50% 172 Tennessee - Martin 62 32.0, 208 Murray State 38 32.0
50% 148 Indiana State 20 26.9, 133 Missouri State 18 26.8
49% 239 Stetson 28 34.6, 240 Campbell 24 34.9
48% 202 Alabama - Birmingham 31 33.0, 203 Florida Atlantic 28 33.3
40% 192 Norfolk State 12 14.9, 214 Florida A&M 10 16.6
40% 176 The Citadel 28 32.6, 193 Mercer 26 36.5
40% 169 Southern 28 30.8, 125 Alabama State 21 32.9
40% 66 Duke 51 27.2, 75 Pittsburgh 48 28.3
39% 190 Morgan State 38 26.1, 181 Hampton 35 28.5
39% 177 Abilene Christian 52 36.7, 144 Central Arkansas 35 40.4
38% 186 Alabama A&M 25 27.9, 174 Jackson State 14 31.7
37% 226 Idaho State 31 34.0, 188 Portland State 13 38.2
37% 55 Richmond 10 30.9, 26 Villanova 9 34.4
35% 80 Temple 20 30.4, 43 East Carolina 10 34.3
35% 72 Maryland 20 22.8, 49 Penn State 19 28.5
34% 88 North Carolina State 24 21.9, 71 Syracuse 17 26.1
34% 56 Boston College 33 19.4, 45 Virginia Tech 31 25.8
28% 237 Northern Colorado 27 19.5, 207 California - Davis 21 28.0
28% 29 Auburn 35 25.1, 17 Mississippi 31 30.9
24% 173 Saint Francis - Pennsy 26 25.5, 83 Duquesne 16 33.2
24% 108 Tennessee 45 23.8, 31 South Carolina 42 33.4
20% 246 Virginia Military 31 20.8, 184 Furman 15 30.4
19% 142 California 45 27.2, 60 Oregon State 31 36.9
19% 37 Florida 38 23.6, 10 Georgia 20 32.9
18% 158 Connecticut 37 16.9, 35 Central Florida 29 27.8
15% 162 Marist 17 17.9, 90 Jacksonville 16 29.6
12% 212 Charleston Southern 27 18.3, 87 Monmouth 0 34.8
11% 189 Wyoming 45 25.9, 111 Fresno State 17 39.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.19 34 1.07 15 0.90 33 0.95 14 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 82 80.7 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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