prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 133 Tennessee State 31 33.5, 249 Austin Peay 27 9.7
94% 124 Southeast Louisiana 76 54.9, 252 Houston Baptist 7 15.3
94% 50 San Diego 49 47.2, 240 Morehead State 28 20.7
94% 40 Marshall 63 41.8, 230 Southern Mississippi 17 22.2
94% 37 Arizona 38 43.0, 185 Colorado 20 25.3
94% 27 New Hampshire 41 38.6, 216 Rhode Island 14 18.0
94% 19 Mississippi 48 40.7, 235 Presbyterian 0 8.9
94% 9 Harvard 45 43.3, 233 Columbia 0 7.4
94% 2 Florida State 34 42.2, 111 Virginia 20 18.0
93% 113 San Diego State 35 38.5, 238 Idaho 21 21.0
93% 16 Boise State 60 41.8, 207 New Mexico 49 22.7
93% 6 Wisconsin 34 38.6, 156 Purdue 16 21.9
92% 85 Colorado State 49 36.4, 172 Hawaii 22 23.2
92% 53 Eastern Illinois 48 48.2, 226 Murray State 26 26.3
92% 12 Clemson 34 34.9, 166 Wake Forest 20 14.9
91% 208 Howard 51 38.8, 250 Savannah State 21 21.9
91% 62 William & Mary 17 31.0, 197 Elon 7 13.3
89% 94 Samford 34 37.6, 221 Western Carolina 20 22.1
89% 82 Jacksonville 56 40.1, 246 Davidson 0 19.3
89% 34 Georgia Southern 28 38.2, 176 Texas State - San Marc 25 25.5
87% 147 Louisiana - Lafayette 44 38.0, 242 New Mexico State 16 25.0
87% 30 Villanova 42 39.1, 121 Towson 14 21.6
86% 116 Montana State 29 39.5, 220 Portland State 22 25.2
86% 102 Sam Houston State 40 40.3, 247 Incarnate Word 19 20.2
86% 91 Appalachian State 31 34.2, 163 Northeast Louisiana 29 22.6
86% 56 Princeton 22 35.6, 135 Pennsylvania 17 24.9
86% 25 Fordham 30 34.5, 100 Bucknell 27 26.3
84% 108 North Carolina A&T 45 33.4, 192 Morgan State 0 23.3
83% 181 Grambling 38 34.1, 237 Mississippi Valley Sta 23 24.2
83% 143 Central Arkansas 44 44.2, 225 Lamar 41 31.3
83% 138 Alabama State 26 33.0, 180 Jackson State 10 23.6
82% 140 Rice 17 33.7, 218 Texas - San Antonio 7 21.9
82% 109 Fresno State 38 36.6, 158 San Jose State 24 28.7
82% 41 Mississippi State 45 39.0, 152 Tennessee - Martin 16 21.1
82% 15 Georgia 63 38.2, 105 Kentucky 31 27.6
81% 167 Southern 30 37.4, 234 Texas Southern 20 25.2
80% 154 Northern Arizona 23 28.3, 202 California - Davis 21 19.5
78% 179 Charleston Southern 44 28.3, 229 Gardner - Webb 14 18.7
78% 155 Old Dominion 38 35.8, 222 Florida International 35 25.0
74% 231 Troy State 45 34.8, 244 Georgia State 21 28.2
73% 214 Tulsa 38 29.6, 236 Southern Methodist 28 19.3
73% 137 Air Force 48 31.0, 209 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 23.8
73% 126 Arkansas State 45 32.8, 191 South Alabama 10 23.2
73% 3 Oregon 51 34.5, 32 Utah 27 28.8
72% 68 Eastern Washington 36 37.5, 76 Montana 26 31.2
71% 120 Toledo 30 34.8, 188 Kent State 20 27.1
71% 79 Dartmouth 42 28.9, 165 Cornell 7 22.8
70% 57 Utah State 20 30.2, 157 Wyoming 3 23.1
69% 99 Bethune - Cookman 13 24.0, 178 Norfolk State 7 16.6
69% 90 Sacred Heart 35 27.9, 177 Central Connecticut 27 21.3
69% 5 Texas Christian 41 35.8, 10 Kansas State 20 28.1
68% 171 The Citadel 42 25.1, 198 Furman 35 18.8
68% 122 Louisiana Tech 40 36.9, 201 Alabama - Birmingham 24 31.8
68% 42 Penn State 13 32.9, 144 Indiana 7 26.6
67% 128 South Carolina State 34 22.9, 212 Florida A&M 17 17.6
66% 73 Coastal Carolina 59 51.1, 204 North Carolina - Charl 34 42.0
66% 33 Georgia Tech 56 32.4, 81 North Carolina State 23 28.4
65% 87 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 28.6, 129 Wofford 13 22.8
65% 70 Illinois State 35 31.6, 67 Youngstown State 21 27.2
65% 35 Florida 34 28.1, 104 Vanderbilt 10 22.0
63% 169 Western Kentucky 35 37.9, 189 Texas - El Paso 27 32.9
63% 161 Wagner 20 23.6, 213 Robert Morris 0 19.3
62% 103 Liberty 34 31.0, 110 Monmouth 24 27.4
62% 26 Arizona State 55 31.4, 21 Notre Dame 31 29.0
61% 193 Sacramento State 42 32.3, 195 Southern Utah 21 29.3
61% 187 North Texas 31 30.0, 199 Florida Atlantic 10 27.2
61% 173 Prairie View 51 40.7, 219 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 23 36.7
61% 170 Western Illinois 44 26.3, 206 South Dakota 29 24.4
61% 132 Alcorn State 41 34.5, 168 Alabama A&M 14 30.8
61% 86 Northern Illinois 35 32.8, 141 Ball State 21 30.9
61% 59 Michigan 10 24.8, 117 Northwestern 9 22.2
61% 43 California - Los Angel 44 31.6, 65 Washington 30 29.9
61% 36 Texas 33 31.2, 38 West Virginia 16 26.4
61% 17 Louisville 38 27.0, 55 Boston College 19 24.7
60% 211 North Carolina Central 47 28.6, 196 Hampton 13 27.0
60% 136 Bowling Green 27 29.3, 182 Akron 10 27.8
60% 106 South Dakota State 32 27.9, 148 Indiana State 17 26.6
60% 60 Duke 27 29.4, 83 Syracuse 10 27.3
57% 66 Bryant 20 27.1, 107 Duquesne 17 26.2
55% 190 Ohio 37 26.6, 164 Buffalo 14 26.0
51% 114 Holy Cross 27 27.8, 88 Lehigh 20 27.7
47% 48 Jacksonville State 20 30.6, 75 Eastern Kentucky 6 30.9
44% 227 Tennessee Tech 27 27.9, 215 Southeast Missouri Sta 26 28.5
44% 1 Alabama 20 24.0, 14 Louisiana State 13 24.7
42% 127 Southern Illinois 32 24.6, 150 Missouri State 22 25.6
40% 101 Lafayette 19 24.9, 125 Colgate 16 26.3
40% 96 Maine 33 23.8, 61 Richmond 20 25.2
40% 95 Memphis 16 27.6, 71 Temple 13 29.1
40% 84 Minnesota 51 24.2, 28 Iowa 14 26.1
40% 74 James Madison 27 21.8, 80 Stony Brook 24 24.0
39% 183 Kansas 34 24.6, 134 Iowa State 14 28.0
39% 4 Ohio State 49 31.8, 11 Michigan State 37 33.4
38% 224 Weber State 24 21.1, 217 North Dakota 12 24.6
38% 8 Baylor 48 37.2, 7 Oklahoma 14 41.6
37% 200 Northwestern State 34 36.4, 186 Abilene Christian 10 40.6
36% 241 Stetson 22 24.4, 151 Marist 14 32.8
35% 63 Yale 45 27.5, 47 Brown 42 31.3
35% 31 Texas A&M 41 31.1, 29 Auburn 38 36.4
33% 205 Army 35 21.8, 145 Connecticut 21 27.6
32% 210 Idaho State 30 33.8, 98 California Poly 28 41.5
31% 54 Northern Iowa 23 21.0, 13 North Dakota State 3 25.7
26% 174 Stephen F. Austin 31 29.9, 112 McNeese State 16 39.2
26% 153 Washington State 39 29.3, 93 Oregon State 32 37.4
26% 119 Delaware 31 21.5, 92 Albany 28 29.1
21% 115 Drake 34 21.2, 97 Dayton 30 29.0
15% 248 Valparaiso 17 26.9, 175 Butler 3 39.9
9% 203 Tulane 31 16.7, 52 Houston 24 35.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.88 42 1.04 15 0.98 20 1.12 18 1.02 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 81 78.6 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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