prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 88 Southeast Louisiana 62 51.0, 251 Nicholls State 3 15.1
94% 82 Dayton 19 40.7, 245 Campbell 14 14.1
94% 42 Central Florida 53 39.2, 224 Southern Methodist 7 13.0
94% 41 Brigham Young 64 54.0, 250 Savannah State 0 8.7
94% 18 Clemson 28 49.8, 241 Georgia State 0 12.9
94% 11 Oklahoma 44 41.2, 170 Kansas 7 13.9
94% 10 Georgia 55 46.7, 173 Charleston Southern 9 18.1
94% 7 Ohio State 42 50.6, 149 Indiana 27 24.2
94% 3 Florida State 20 38.9, 70 Boston College 17 20.1
94% 2 Oregon 44 52.9, 189 Colorado 10 20.6
94% 1 Alabama 48 47.0, 227 Western Carolina 14 9.9
93% 101 South Dakota State 37 38.6, 220 South Dakota 14 21.7
93% 80 Brown 41 33.2, 225 Columbia 7 13.3
93% 59 East Carolina 34 39.4, 210 Tulane 6 21.5
93% 50 James Madison 59 34.9, 194 Elon 27 15.6
93% 37 Northern Iowa 38 33.8, 146 Missouri State 24 18.9
93% 19 Arizona State 52 47.0, 139 Washington State 31 29.3
93% 12 North Dakota State 38 33.0, 100 Youngstown State 14 16.5
93% 6 Harvard 31 37.1, 55 Yale 24 22.8
92% 151 Ball State 45 38.1, 247 Eastern Michigan 30 17.5
92% 58 Houston 38 38.0, 187 Tulsa 28 21.3
92% 40 South Carolina 37 38.5, 196 South Alabama 12 19.9
91% 83 Colorado State 58 41.5, 199 New Mexico 20 26.8
91% 48 Jacksonville State 49 36.9, 213 Southeast Missouri Sta 30 22.4
91% 33 Marshall 23 44.7, 216 Alabama - Birmingham 18 27.4
91% 17 Boise State 63 37.7, 158 Wyoming 14 23.4
91% 9 Michigan State 45 37.2, 95 Rutgers 3 18.1
90% 125 Duquesne 22 29.6, 229 Robert Morris 0 10.6
88% 5 Baylor 49 45.8, 46 Oklahoma State 28 28.3
87% 226 Tennessee Tech 41 29.9, 249 Austin Peay 15 18.2
87% 133 Monmouth 31 33.1, 234 Gardner - Webb 15 16.2
87% 35 Mississippi State 51 34.1, 126 Vanderbilt 0 20.4
86% 91 Bethune - Cookman 18 30.1, 197 Florida A&M 17 18.8
86% 68 Eastern Washington 56 41.4, 207 Portland State 34 29.8
86% 64 Utah State 41 29.9, 155 San Jose State 7 19.7
86% 4 Wisconsin 26 30.9, 54 Iowa 24 22.3
85% 160 Western Kentucky 45 35.0, 211 Texas - San Antonio 7 25.3
85% 28 Florida 52 33.9, 92 Eastern Kentucky 3 19.3
84% 165 The Citadel 45 36.1, 242 Virginia Military 25 23.7
84% 123 South Carolina State 30 24.0, 201 Norfolk State 20 11.0
83% 60 Tennessee - Chattanoog 45 30.4, 181 Furman 19 20.2
83% 27 New Hampshire 20 31.4, 93 Maine 12 23.8
83% 22 Stanford 38 33.0, 128 California 17 25.3
82% 63 Illinois State 44 34.4, 136 Southern Illinois 29 22.7
81% 38 Auburn 31 38.9, 122 Samford 7 24.1
80% 179 Northeast Louisiana 30 31.7, 244 New Mexico State 17 21.9
79% 25 Villanova 35 35.8, 127 Delaware 28 25.5
78% 212 Morgan State 69 28.8, 231 Delaware State 7 21.0
77% 74 Sam Houston State 38 41.1, 161 Central Arkansas 31 30.4
76% 106 Memphis 31 29.7, 147 South Florida 20 19.5
76% 105 Drake 27 37.6, 239 Stetson 15 24.1
76% 72 Montana 34 35.8, 132 Montana State 7 25.0
74% 67 Northern Illinois 21 30.7, 164 Ohio 14 24.5
71% 52 Cincinnati 41 31.9, 144 Connecticut 0 24.2
70% 62 Washington 37 31.7, 96 Oregon State 13 26.1
69% 218 North Carolina - Charl 52 51.9, 236 Morehead State 14 41.5
69% 131 Tennessee State 48 34.7, 214 Murray State 33 28.9
69% 73 Pittsburgh 30 28.7, 104 Syracuse 7 22.6
68% 114 Toledo 27 35.5, 110 Bowling Green 20 30.8
67% 115 Pennsylvania 34 26.9, 182 Cornell 26 22.2
66% 208 Idaho State 46 35.3, 217 Weber State 28 30.4
65% 243 Valparaiso 27 33.4, 246 Davidson 13 28.0
64% 190 Middle Tennessee State 35 31.3, 200 Florida Atlantic 34 26.4
64% 176 North Texas 17 27.4, 205 Florida International 14 23.2
63% 203 Howard 30 30.2, 204 Hampton 29 27.3
63% 162 Rice 31 31.0, 185 Texas - El Paso 13 26.5
63% 135 Wofford 34 37.2, 188 Mercer 6 30.4
63% 78 Northwestern 38 30.8, 169 Purdue 14 26.2
62% 32 California - Los Angel 38 31.2, 29 Southern California 20 28.9
61% 167 Stephen F. Austin 27 36.7, 172 Northwestern State 24 33.5
61% 120 San Diego State 30 28.8, 130 Air Force 14 26.2
61% 111 Albany 27 25.0, 85 Stony Brook 17 22.7
60% 198 Akron 30 28.1, 177 Massachusetts 6 26.9
60% 109 Texas Tech 34 35.4, 140 Iowa State 31 33.8
60% 47 Dartmouth 41 33.2, 76 Princeton 10 32.1
60% 15 Missouri 29 29.9, 61 Tennessee 21 28.3
60% 13 Kansas State 26 31.9, 45 West Virginia 20 30.0
59% 113 Appalachian State 35 32.8, 153 Louisiana - Lafayette 16 31.7
53% 124 Western Michigan 32 28.5, 138 Central Michigan 20 28.2
53% 20 Louisville 31 29.4, 36 Notre Dame 28 29.1
50% 223 North Dakota 33 23.3, 233 Northern Colorado 14 23.4
46% 180 Sacramento State 41 31.8, 195 California - Davis 30 32.4
45% 183 Western Illinois 34 25.6, 148 Indiana State 20 26.2
42% 102 Lafayette 27 28.5, 86 Lehigh 7 29.2
42% 44 Arkansas 30 23.7, 21 Mississippi 0 24.7
40% 159 Old Dominion 30 35.9, 119 Louisiana Tech 27 37.2
38% 237 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 28.3, 209 Alabama A&M 19 32.6
38% 171 Georgetown 21 20.1, 121 Holy Cross 16 23.5
38% 134 California Poly 34 26.3, 99 San Diego 3 32.3
38% 116 Colgate 21 23.1, 112 Bucknell 6 26.8
38% 103 Fresno State 40 31.5, 108 Nevada - Reno 20 34.8
37% 166 Texas State - San Marc 45 28.2, 107 Arkansas State 27 31.9
37% 69 North Carolina 45 34.2, 51 Duke 20 38.1
35% 84 Maryland 23 24.8, 57 Michigan 16 29.7
32% 98 Virginia 30 24.9, 24 Miami - Florida 13 31.2
29% 94 Richmond 34 22.1, 53 William & Mary 20 28.7
28% 192 North Carolina Central 21 23.5, 87 North Carolina A&T 14 31.0
28% 174 Central Connecticut 22 27.3, 129 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 33.8
26% 157 Wake Forest 6 16.2, 49 Virginia Tech 3 25.4
25% 43 Arizona 42 26.0, 31 Utah 10 31.6
23% 142 Wagner 23 18.3, 79 Bryant 20 28.2
22% 215 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 23.6, 178 Hawaii 31 31.2
21% 228 Rhode Island 13 20.2, 137 Towson 7 28.6
21% 206 Southern Utah 22 20.4, 154 Northern Arizona 14 29.3
20% 230 Lamar 27 25.6, 150 McNeese State 24 37.9
20% 143 Illinois 16 21.0, 39 Penn State 14 28.8
20% 117 Liberty 15 30.3, 56 Coastal Carolina 14 40.6
14% 66 Minnesota 28 25.4, 34 Nebraska 24 35.0
13% 168 Jackson State 34 23.5, 75 Alcorn State 31 37.8
11% 175 Tennessee - Martin 37 24.0, 65 Eastern Illinois 16 38.3
6% 193 Army 42 25.4, 26 Fordham 31 45.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.95 27 1.04 19 0.63 23 0.92 29 1.04 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 80 85.4 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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