prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 23 New Hampshire 35 36.3, 73 Tennessee - Chattanoog 30 24.5
83% 15 North Dakota State 39 35.0, 63 Coastal Carolina 32 23.6
79% 107 Navy 17 37.2, 193 Army 10 28.4
40% 80 Illinois State 59 34.5, 90 Eastern Washington 46 37.3
18% 67 Sam Houston State 34 26.0, 28 Villanova 31 37.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 0.00 1 1.26 3 0.81 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 3 3.9 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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