prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 18 North Dakota State 35 33.0, 67 Sam Houston State 3 20.4
88% 1 Texas Christian 42 34.0, 37 Mississippi 3 21.2
86% 60 Utah State 21 32.7, 191 Texas - El Paso 6 20.7
78% 19 Stanford 45 29.2, 75 Maryland 21 21.4
71% 24 Arizona State 36 36.1, 72 Duke 31 30.3
70% 129 Bowling Green 33 31.5, 199 South Alabama 28 25.6
69% 97 Louisiana Tech 35 35.4, 137 Illinois 18 30.7
69% 17 Florida 28 32.2, 56 East Carolina 20 26.9
69% 15 Southern California 45 34.6, 35 Nebraska 42 29.4
69% 12 Boise State 38 34.9, 39 Arizona 30 30.0
67% 2 Oregon 59 37.7, 5 Florida State 20 33.3
65% 14 Wisconsin 34 32.7, 34 Auburn 31 28.9
63% 132 Western Kentucky 49 34.7, 155 Central Michigan 48 31.6
63% 101 Toledo 63 35.9, 124 Arkansas State 44 33.5
62% 20 Georgia Tech 49 32.9, 22 Mississippi State 34 30.7
61% 27 Missouri 33 28.4, 52 Minnesota 17 26.1
61% 16 Georgia 37 33.1, 21 Louisville 14 30.8
61% 3 Ohio State 42 34.2, 4 Alabama 35 32.4
60% 36 Arkansas 31 25.2, 51 Texas 7 22.3
59% 57 Utah 45 29.8, 77 Colorado State 10 28.9
59% 23 Texas A&M 45 33.6, 31 West Virginia 37 32.5
57% 26 South Carolina 24 29.0, 45 Miami - Florida 21 28.1
55% 30 Oklahoma State 30 30.9, 46 Washington 22 30.3
51% 74 Marshall 52 35.1, 49 Northern Illinois 23 35.0
48% 59 Tennessee 45 27.5, 42 Iowa 28 27.8
42% 11 Clemson 40 28.1, 8 Oklahoma 6 29.0
40% 64 Houston 35 27.6, 48 Pittsburgh 34 29.3
39% 144 Air Force 38 27.1, 134 Western Michigan 24 29.1
39% 109 Navy 17 26.5, 85 San Diego State 16 29.3
39% 79 Memphis 55 29.0, 41 Brigham Young 48 31.1
39% 58 Penn State 31 19.7, 43 Boston College 30 21.8
39% 55 Virginia Tech 33 22.8, 40 Cincinnati 17 25.2
39% 6 Michigan State 42 36.4, 7 Baylor 41 38.3
35% 142 Louisiana - Lafayette 16 30.2, 105 Nevada - Reno 3 34.0
35% 115 Rutgers 40 30.2, 71 North Carolina 21 34.3
32% 32 California - Los Angel 40 28.5, 13 Kansas State 35 33.4
29% 166 Rice 30 28.5, 103 Fresno State 6 34.5
29% 70 North Carolina State 34 24.3, 28 Central Florida 27 29.2
26% 44 Notre Dame 31 21.3, 9 Louisiana State 28 29.3
17% 65 Illinois State 21 29.8, 25 New Hampshire 18 38.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.28 24 0.91 5 0.55 4 0.87 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 40 24 26.4 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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