12 Jan 2016: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2015 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6  11  8.8  7.0 Alabama                 
  2  6  10  9.2  6.4 Oklahoma                
  3  9  10  9.1  6.3 Clemson                 
  4  8  11  9.8  5.7 Baylor                  
  5  7  10  8.8  6.6 Ohio State              
  6 14   9  8.9  6.4 Mississippi             
  7 13   9  8.8  6.5 Stanford                
  8 13   9  8.5  6.5 Florida State           
  9  8   9  9.0  6.0 Texas Christian         
 10 25   8  8.5  6.4 Louisiana State         
 11 27   8  9.2  5.7 North Carolina          
 12 30   8  8.9  5.9 Arkansas                
 13 34   8  9.1  5.8 Notre Dame              
 14 32   8  9.7  5.2 Oregon                  
 15 15   8  8.7  6.1 Mississippi State       
 16 19   8  8.6  6.2 Southern California     
 17 18   7  8.3  6.4 Michigan State          
 18 26   7  8.1  6.6 Washington              
 19 23   7  8.2  6.5 Michigan                
 20 23   7  8.7  5.9 Tennessee               
 21 31   7  8.8  5.8 Houston                 
 22 13   7  8.8  5.8 Boise State             
 23 24   7  8.1  6.4 Georgia                 
 24 20   7  9.1  5.5 Oklahoma State          
 25 17   7  8.4  6.1 West Virginia           
 26 43   7  8.5  6.0 Auburn                  
 27 19   6  8.2  6.3 Utah                    
 28 24   6  8.4  6.0 California - Los Angeles
 29 16   6  7.7  6.6 Wisconsin               
 30 35   6  8.3  6.1 Texas A&M               
 31 47   6  8.9  5.4 Arizona State           
 32 65   6  8.7  5.6 Memphis                 
 33 42   6  9.2  5.2 California              
 34 60   6  9.2  5.1 Western Kentucky        
 35 39   6  8.4  5.9 Louisville              
 36 45   6  8.3  5.9 Navy                    
 37 28   6  8.5  5.8 Brigham Young           
 38 28   6  8.1  6.1 Iowa                    
 39 42   6  8.3  5.9 Georgia Tech            
 40 33   6  8.8  5.4 Nebraska                
 41 36   5  8.6  5.5 North Carolina State    
 42 44   5  8.2  5.9 Virginia Tech           
 43 66   5  9.0  5.1 Bowling Green           
 44 57   5  8.4  5.7 Toledo                  
 45 27   5  7.6  6.5 Florida                 
 46 39   5  9.6  4.5 Texas Tech              
 47 40   5  8.2  5.8 Pittsburgh              
 48 47   5  9.0  5.0 Arizona                 
 49 48   5  8.3  5.6 Washington State        
 50 41   4  7.7  6.2 San Diego State         
 51 49   4  8.2  5.7 Kansas State            
 52 19   4  8.2  5.6 Georgia Southern        
 53 49   4  7.7  6.1 Temple                  
 54 51   4  8.3  5.5 Duke                    
 55 36   4  8.1  5.7 Miami - Florida         
 56 70   4  8.1  5.8 South Carolina          
 57 57   4  8.0  5.8 South Florida           
 58 41   4  7.8  6.0 Texas                   
 59 69   4  8.4  5.3 Western Michigan        
 60 60   3  7.8  5.8 Minnesota               
 61 61   3  6.9  6.8 Missouri                
 62 33   3  7.6  6.0 Penn State              
 63 33   3  8.0  5.6 Marshall                
 64 45   3  8.1  5.5 Utah State              
 65 60   3  8.9  4.6 Indiana                 
 66 48   3  8.2  5.3 Louisiana Tech          
 67 27   3  7.9  5.6 Appalachian State       
 68 46   3  8.4  5.1 Cincinnati              
 69 51   3  8.1  5.4 Air Force               
 70 46   3  6.8  6.7 Boston College          
 71 41   3  8.1  5.4 East Carolina           
 72 68   3  8.3  5.1 Southern Mississippi    
 73 41   3  7.2  6.2 Northwestern            
 74 65   2  7.9  5.5 Virginia                
 75 51   2  8.5  4.8 Arkansas State          
 76 49   2  7.9  5.5 Northern Illinois       
 77 54   2  8.1  5.2 Kentucky                
 78 64   2  8.0  5.3 Syracuse                
 79 58   2  7.8  5.4 Iowa State              
 80 56   2  7.7  5.5 Illinois                
 81 64   1  7.5  5.6 Central Michigan        
 82 62   1  7.6  5.5 Colorado                
 83 55   1  7.8  5.2 Colorado State          
 84 62   1  7.8  5.2 Middle Tennessee State  
 85 56   1  7.8  5.1 Maryland                
 86 63   1  7.6  5.3 San Jose State          
 87 62   1  7.9  5.0 Rutgers                 
 88 47   1  6.7  6.2 Vanderbilt              
 89 62   1  6.9  6.0 Wake Forest             
 90 60   1  8.5  4.3 Tulsa                   
 91 50   1  7.5  5.3 Nevada - Reno           
 92 55   1  7.5  5.3 Ohio                    
 93 63   0  7.9  4.8 Purdue                  
 94 51   0  6.7  6.0 Connecticut             
 95 58   0  7.0  5.7 Akron                   
 96 54   0  7.5  5.1 Oregon State            
 97 52   0  7.7  4.8 Buffalo                 
 98 49   0  7.6  4.9 New Mexico              
 99 52   0  7.5  5.0 Troy State              
100 54   0  7.7  4.6 Nevada - Las Vegas      
101 42  -1  7.2  5.0 Georgia State           
102 43  -1  7.3  4.8 Louisiana - Lafayette   
103 46  -1  7.0  5.1 Florida Atlantic        
104 47  -1  7.0  5.1 Army                    
105 55  -1  7.7  4.3 Southern Methodist      
106 34  -1  7.4  4.6 Rice                    
107 37  -1  7.6  4.4 Fresno State            
108 42  -1  7.3  4.7 Ball State              
109 49  -2  7.1  4.8 Massachusetts           
110 53  -2  7.1  4.9 Tulane                  
111 35  -2  7.0  4.9 Florida International   
112 31  -2  7.3  4.6 South Alabama           
113 39  -2  7.0  4.9 Wyoming                 
114 40  -2  7.8  3.9 Idaho                   
115 41  -2  6.7  5.0 Central Florida         
116 30  -3  6.9  4.8 Texas - San Antonio     
117 23  -3  7.2  4.4 Texas State - San Marcos
118 30  -3  7.3  4.2 Old Dominion            
119 40  -3  6.8  4.8 Miami - Ohio            
120 28  -3  6.7  4.8 Hawaii                  
121 31  -3  6.1  5.5 Kent State              
122 29  -3  6.6  4.9 Kansas                  
123 27  -3  6.7  4.8 Texas - El Paso         
124 29  -3  6.7  4.8 Northeast Louisiana     
125 33  -4  6.7  4.7 North Texas             
126 35  -4  7.5  3.8 Eastern Michigan        
127 27  -4  7.5  3.7 New Mexico State        
128 44  -5  6.8  4.1 North Carolina - Charlot

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1 17   7  8.2  6.5 North Dakota State      
  2 26   5  7.9  6.3 Northern Iowa           
  3 24   6  8.4  5.8 Illinois State          
  4 38   5  7.9  6.2 Harvard                 
  5 32   5  8.3  5.7 Jacksonville State      
  6 34   4  7.8  6.1 South Dakota State      
  7 39   4  8.9  4.8 James Madison           
  8 36   3  8.2  5.4 Richmond                
  9 38   3  7.7  5.8 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 10 52   3  8.1  5.3 Coastal Carolina        
 11 44   3  7.9  5.5 William & Mary          
 12 50   3  7.2  6.2 Dartmouth               
 13 42   2  7.7  5.7 Youngstown State        
 14 63   2  8.4  4.9 Sam Houston State       
 15 35   2  8.4  4.8 Southern Illinois       
 16 48   2  7.7  5.5 Montana                 
 17 31   2  7.8  5.4 Western Illinois        
 18 54   2  7.0  6.1 Villanova               
 19 52   2  7.6  5.5 Southern Utah           
 20 46   1  7.7  5.3 The Citadel             
 21 40   1  8.5  4.5 Fordham                 
 22 35   1  7.7  5.3 Portland State          
 23 30   1  8.1  4.9 Samford                 
 24 55   1  7.6  5.4 New Hampshire           
 25 30   1  7.8  5.1 Indiana State           
 26 25   0  7.8  5.0 Pennsylvania            
 27 69   0  7.7  5.1 Alcorn State            
 28 44   0  8.2  4.6 Northern Arizona        
 29 59   0  7.2  5.6 Charleston Southern     
 30 33   0  7.8  5.0 Princeton               
 31 44   0  8.4  4.3 Montana State           
 32 83   0  6.8  6.0 McNeese State           
 33 34   0  8.1  4.6 California Poly         
 34 35   0  7.5  5.2 Yale                    
 35 32   0  8.3  4.4 Eastern Washington      
 36 49   0  7.4  5.2 Holy Cross              
 37 35   0  7.4  5.2 Eastern Kentucky        
 38 57   0  7.3  5.3 Duquesne                
 39 69   0  7.0  5.6 North Carolina A&T      
 40 47   0  7.2  5.4 Towson                  
 41 26   0  7.3  5.2 Eastern Illinois        
 42 22   0  7.8  4.6 Tennessee - Martin      
 43 45   0  7.1  5.4 South Dakota            
 44 57   0  7.3  5.2 Bryant                  
 45 40   0  7.5  4.9 Western Carolina        
 46 57   0  7.8  4.6 Bethune - Cookman       
 47 44   0  7.4  5.0 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 48 44   0  7.3  5.1 Liberty                 
 49 35   0  7.6  4.8 Brown                   
 50 35  -1  7.2  5.1 North Dakota            
 51 60  -1  8.2  3.9 Prairie View            
 52 17  -1  7.2  5.0 Southeast Missouri State
 53 30  -1  7.0  5.2 Wofford                 
 54 36  -1  7.0  5.1 Colgate                 
 55 82  -1  7.3  4.9 Central Arkansas        
 56 67  -1  7.9  4.2 Grambling               
 57 47  -1  7.0  5.1 Sacred Heart            
 58 67  -1  6.5  5.6 South Carolina State    
 59 73  -1  7.1  5.0 Mercer                  
 60 55  -1  6.5  5.6 Maine                   
 61 39  -1  7.7  4.3 Lehigh                  
 62 **  -1  6.9  5.2 San Diego               
 63 34  -1  6.9  5.1 Monmouth                
 64 30  -1  6.7  5.3 Weber State             
 65 59  -2  6.2  5.7 Delaware                
 66 54  -2  6.1  5.9 Stony Brook             
 67 99  -2  7.0  4.9 Jacksonville            
 68 65  -2  7.5  4.3 Lamar                   
 69 41  -2  6.8  5.0 North Carolina Central  
 70 98  -2  6.5  5.3 Dayton                  
 71 64  -2  7.4  4.3 Stephen F. Austin       
 72 67  -3  7.5  4.2 Southern                
 73 33  -2  6.6  5.1 Furman                  
 74 29  -3  6.7  5.0 Hampton                 
 75 77  -3  6.4  5.3 Southeast Louisiana     
 76 47  -3  6.7  4.9 Tennessee State         
 77 43  -3  7.4  4.1 Northwestern State      
 78 22  -3  7.6  3.9 Murray State            
 79 48  -3  6.5  5.1 Albany                  
 80 42  -3  6.0  5.7 Bucknell                
 81 97  -3  6.4  5.1 Marist                  
 82 38  -3  6.2  5.3 Elon                    
 83 46  -3  6.4  5.0 Georgetown              
 84 30  -4  6.8  4.5 California - Davis      
 85 34  -4  7.0  4.3 Northern Colorado       
 86 50  -4  6.4  4.9 Morgan State            
 87 29  -4  6.4  4.9 Central Connecticut     
 88 22  -4  5.9  5.4 Columbia                
 89 15  -4  6.9  4.3 Tennessee Tech          
 90 21  -4  6.4  4.8 Rhode Island            
 91 91  -4  7.0  4.1 Abilene Christian       
 92 18  -4  7.0  4.1 Virginia Military       
 93 **  -5  7.4  3.7 Kennesaw State          
 94 40  -4  5.8  5.5 Presbyterian            
 95 **  -4  6.2  5.0 Drake                   
 96 18  -5  7.0  4.1 Idaho State             
 97 33  -5  6.6  4.5 Sacramento State        
 98 89  -5  6.6  4.5 Butler                  
 99 79  -5  6.4  4.7 Alabama State           
100 87  -5  7.0  4.0 Morehead State          
101 45  -5  5.9  5.2 Norfolk State           
102 24  -5  6.2  4.8 Cornell                 
103 97  -6  6.1  4.7 Campbell                
104 41  -6  6.3  4.5 Lafayette               
105 48  -6  6.3  4.4 Missouri State          
106 17  -6  6.2  4.5 Wagner                  
107 39  -6  5.5  5.2 Gardner - Webb          
108 15  -7  6.4  4.1 Howard                  
109 73  -7  6.0  4.6 Incarnate Word          
110 19  -7  6.0  4.5 Florida A&M             
111 34  -7  5.3  5.3 Robert Morris           
112 44  -7  6.1  4.3 Jackson State           
113 34  -8  6.0  4.2 Alabama A&M             
114 28  -8  6.2  4.0 Nicholls State          
115 11  -9  5.8  4.3 Delaware State          
116 11  -9  5.7  4.2 Austin Peay             
117 32  -9  5.9  4.0 Texas Southern          
118 62 -10  5.9  3.7 Stetson                 
119 16 -10  6.0  3.5 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
120 24 -10  5.5  4.1 East Tennessee State    
121  8 -11  6.1  3.3 Savannah State          
122 25 -11  6.0  3.3 Valparaiso              
123  8 -11  5.4  3.8 Mississippi Valley State
124 22 -12  5.5  3.6 Davidson                
125 14 -14  5.2  3.2 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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