prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 11 Southern California 59 57.9, 212 Idaho 9 11.5
84% 2 Ohio State 38 55.6, 147 Hawaii 0 13.5
83% 5 Baylor 66 65.8, 197 Lamar 31 24.1
82% 67 North Dakota State 41 45.2, 210 Weber State 14 14.8
82% 3 Texas Christian 70 58.1, 167 Stephen F. Austin 7 18.1
81% 13 Wisconsin 58 47.8, 192 Miami - Ohio 0 10.1
80% 10 Georgia Tech 65 48.1, 173 Tulane 10 11.3
78% 8 Florida State 34 46.3, 152 South Florida 14 11.9
77% 4 Alabama 37 48.0, 115 Middle Tennessee State 10 14.6
76% 48 Boston College 76 45.0, 223 Howard 0 14.4
75% 79 Youngstown State 21 44.5, 238 Robert Morris 14 13.2
75% 6 Georgia 31 44.9, 127 Vanderbilt 14 17.0
73% 47 Illinois State 67 45.3, 198 Morgan State 14 19.7
73% 9 Mississippi 73 43.8, 117 Fresno State 21 16.0
72% 163 Northeast Louisiana 47 47.5, 249 Nicholls State 0 17.5
72% 24 Nebraska 48 45.1, 161 South Alabama 9 18.8
71% 100 Samford 58 38.2, 233 Florida A&M 21 13.0
71% 56 South Dakota State 55 41.3, 196 Southern Utah 10 17.8
71% 20 California - Los Angel 37 46.8, 174 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 22.7
70% 16 Clemson 41 41.4, 108 Appalachian State 10 17.2
69% 221 Northern Colorado 34 48.2, 253 Houston Baptist 10 21.6
69% 140 McNeese State 43 44.9, 246 Incarnate Word 6 14.5
69% 119 Sacred Heart 56 43.6, 244 Valparaiso 3 18.9
69% 40 Virginia Tech 42 34.8, 199 Furman 3 10.6
69% 37 Washington 49 46.6, 168 Sacramento State 0 25.1
69% 25 Texas A&M 56 46.1, 118 Ball State 23 25.6
69% 14 Kansas State 30 38.1, 169 Texas - San Antonio 3 13.5
68% 200 Southern Mississippi 52 36.5, 248 Austin Peay 6 17.2
68% 86 Northern Illinois 57 51.0, 207 Murray State 26 31.3
68% 77 Texas Tech 69 45.1, 145 Texas - El Paso 20 27.4
68% 39 Duke 55 42.7, 189 North Carolina Central 0 22.0
68% 38 Oklahoma State 32 44.2, 135 Central Arkansas 8 25.4
67% 146 Albany 35 34.1, 232 Rhode Island 7 16.3
67% 85 Indiana 36 40.6, 177 Florida International 22 23.3
67% 81 James Madison 55 41.9, 166 Lehigh 17 24.9
67% 36 Miami - Florida 44 38.8, 141 Florida Atlantic 20 21.6
67% 23 Arizona State 35 43.4, 105 California Poly 21 27.3
67% 22 Missouri 27 38.1, 111 Arkansas State 20 22.2
66% 219 Southern 50 38.5, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 22.7
66% 194 Mercer 57 45.2, 242 Stetson 14 29.3
66% 134 Stony Brook 38 33.2, 209 Central Connecticut 9 16.3
66% 58 Pittsburgh 24 35.0, 175 Akron 7 20.5
66% 50 New Hampshire 26 36.2, 179 Colgate 8 21.7
66% 12 Auburn 27 39.9, 72 Jacksonville State 20 26.1
65% 226 Virginia Military 43 46.8, 243 Morehead State 40 38.2
65% 195 Kent State 45 26.6, 240 Delaware State 13 15.7
65% 183 North Carolina - Charl 34 34.8, 222 Presbyterian 10 25.0
65% 181 Tennessee State 35 32.6, 236 Jackson State 25 18.1
65% 178 Bethune - Cookman 56 33.2, 228 Grambling 53 26.4
65% 157 Wofford 34 32.5, 215 Tennessee Tech 14 21.0
65% 131 Old Dominion 24 34.5, 231 Norfolk State 10 22.1
65% 130 The Citadel 28 39.9, 182 Western Carolina 10 28.1
65% 110 Louisiana - Lafayette 44 36.1, 154 Northwestern State 17 28.8
65% 103 Colorado 48 41.2, 176 Massachusetts 14 31.2
65% 101 Richmond 31 40.4, 216 Hampton 28 27.1
65% 97 Georgia Southern 43 35.9, 107 Western Michigan 17 29.3
65% 93 Syracuse 30 26.1, 124 Wake Forest 17 17.2
65% 92 Air Force 37 36.4, 138 San Jose State 16 25.3
65% 76 Northwestern 41 31.0, 106 Eastern Illinois 0 26.5
65% 75 North Carolina 53 37.0, 136 North Carolina A&T 14 29.6
65% 66 Michigan 35 28.4, 82 Oregon State 7 20.9
65% 64 North Carolina State 35 35.3, 128 Eastern Kentucky 0 27.2
65% 62 Penn State 27 33.6, 125 Buffalo 14 20.9
65% 61 Coastal Carolina 41 34.6, 164 South Carolina State 14 24.7
65% 57 California 35 38.4, 99 San Diego State 7 30.4
65% 51 Iowa 31 31.0, 102 Iowa State 17 24.5
65% 46 Northern Iowa 38 40.0, 65 Eastern Washington 35 34.7
65% 44 Texas 42 30.3, 90 Rice 28 19.5
65% 41 Memphis 55 33.2, 120 Kansas 23 23.8
65% 35 Notre Dame 34 32.7, 73 Virginia 27 26.7
65% 31 West Virginia 41 37.7, 98 Liberty 17 25.2
65% 30 Utah 24 28.5, 74 Utah State 14 17.0
65% 29 Arizona 44 37.1, 94 Nevada - Reno 20 27.5
65% 28 Florida 31 36.9, 52 East Carolina 24 24.0
65% 21 Stanford 31 26.9, 60 Central Florida 7 14.2
64% 151 Texas State - San Marc 63 38.4, 205 Prairie View 24 34.6
63% 84 Illinois 44 33.3, 116 Western Illinois 0 29.5
62% 214 Georgetown 34 20.8, 227 Marist 7 16.7
62% 158 Delaware 19 28.1, 139 Lafayette 9 24.5
58% 185 Towson 35 31.6, 149 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 29.3
57% 45 Brigham Young 35 35.9, 32 Boise State 24 34.1
54% 184 Connecticut 22 27.3, 159 Army 17 26.1
53% 19 Oklahoma 31 33.6, 34 Tennessee 24 32.8
52% 132 Central Michigan 31 29.5, 153 Monmouth 10 28.8
48% 220 Georgia State 34 34.8, 224 New Mexico State 32 35.3
47% 186 South Dakota 27 25.5, 211 California - Davis 17 26.3
47% 17 Louisiana State 21 28.0, 18 Mississippi State 19 28.9
46% 142 Duquesne 26 23.6, 144 Bucknell 7 25.0
45% 7 Michigan State 31 35.6, 1 Oregon 28 37.0
43% 172 Alcorn State 31 29.4, 203 Alabama State 14 31.5
40% 225 Elon 21 19.9, 218 Gardner - Webb 13 23.3
39% 42 Minnesota 23 28.2, 54 Colorado State 20 31.4
38% 55 Villanova 14 34.3, 53 Fordham 7 37.6
37% 123 Purdue 38 27.7, 95 Indiana State 14 31.7
35% 217 Southern Methodist 31 27.1, 137 North Texas 13 33.8
35% 213 North Dakota 21 20.6, 201 Drake 18 26.9
35% 208 Troy State 44 24.8, 143 Charleston Southern 16 35.3
35% 188 Portland State 34 34.3, 126 Idaho State 14 41.7
35% 170 Tulsa 40 35.5, 133 New Mexico 21 42.8
35% 96 Temple 34 22.7, 49 Cincinnati 26 33.6
35% 89 Washington State 37 29.4, 68 Rutgers 34 38.4
35% 80 Western Kentucky 41 36.8, 43 Louisiana Tech 38 41.2
35% 70 Kentucky 26 27.2, 33 South Carolina 22 39.0
35% 69 Houston 34 23.6, 26 Louisville 31 35.7
34% 234 Eastern Michigan 48 23.0, 162 Wyoming 29 38.8
34% 204 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 25.0, 87 Southern Illinois 24 40.3
34% 156 Ohio 21 25.1, 27 Marshall 10 40.8
34% 129 Bowling Green 48 27.6, 63 Maryland 27 42.2
34% 83 Toledo 16 27.2, 15 Arkansas 12 43.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.84 78 1.16 13 1.36 7 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 84 72.3 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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