prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 163 Alcorn State 55 46.2, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 12.3
93% 12 Wisconsin 28 51.7, 201 Troy State 3 11.7
93% 3 Oregon 61 63.6, 218 Georgia State 28 9.6
93% 2 Texas Christian 56 52.4, 205 Southern Methodist 37 6.8
92% 128 Vanderbilt 47 37.4, 248 Austin Peay 7 8.1
92% 103 Richmond 42 49.3, 228 Virginia Military 10 21.7
92% 19 Oklahoma 52 51.1, 158 Tulsa 38 18.9
92% 4 Ohio State 20 51.9, 96 Northern Illinois 13 21.7
91% 88 Washington State 31 44.6, 196 Wyoming 14 25.9
91% 53 Michigan 28 40.7, 186 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 13.5
91% 43 Minnesota 10 36.6, 204 Kent State 7 8.8
91% 18 Texas A&M 44 46.6, 101 Nevada - Reno 27 24.9
90% 25 Missouri 9 36.3, 178 Connecticut 6 8.7
89% 65 Cincinnati 37 42.1, 208 Miami - Ohio 33 22.0
89% 57 Villanova 28 33.7, 166 Delaware 21 14.2
89% 22 Mississippi State 62 42.7, 162 Northwestern State 13 17.2
88% 42 Oklahoma State 69 36.3, 171 Texas - San Antonio 14 10.8
88% 33 Arizona State 34 47.5, 159 New Mexico 10 22.3
88% 7 Georgia 52 39.2, 40 South Carolina 20 22.0
87% 193 Abilene Christian 49 58.6, 253 Houston Baptist 21 18.3
87% 164 South Carolina State 36 31.6, 231 Florida A&M 0 11.6
87% 41 Marshall 45 40.7, 233 Norfolk State 7 11.1
86% 68 Jacksonville State 48 33.7, 179 Tennessee State 13 16.2
86% 55 North Dakota State 34 40.8, 200 North Dakota 9 17.6
85% 213 Morgan State 61 51.6, 253 Houston Baptist 0 15.9
84% 92 Indiana State 29 39.6, 185 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 22.4
84% 64 Coastal Carolina 34 37.6, 119 Western Illinois 27 23.5
84% 9 Michigan State 35 42.9, 80 Air Force 21 20.9
83% 26 Utah 45 37.9, 125 Fresno State 24 22.8
82% 184 Akron 52 41.7, 251 Savannah State 9 16.7
82% 56 Harvard 41 42.6, 232 Rhode Island 10 10.7
82% 36 Illinois State 34 39.5, 131 Eastern Illinois 31 24.4
81% 73 Fordham 44 48.7, 240 Columbia 24 15.5
81% 38 Boise State 52 48.0, 127 Idaho State 0 28.5
81% 35 Tennessee 55 45.9, 188 Western Carolina 10 18.9
80% 71 James Madison 42 39.5, 135 Albany 28 23.0
79% 61 North Carolina State 38 44.3, 146 Old Dominion 14 30.7
79% 28 Arizona 77 41.8, 169 Northern Arizona 13 20.0
78% 29 Memphis 44 44.7, 120 Bowling Green 41 30.1
78% 17 California - Los Angel 24 36.7, 45 Brigham Young 23 26.0
78% 14 Kansas State 39 37.9, 49 Louisiana Tech 33 22.4
77% 97 Youngstown State 48 38.1, 152 Saint Francis - Pennsy 3 25.4
76% 122 Ball State 28 40.5, 229 Eastern Michigan 17 24.2
76% 93 Syracuse 30 28.1, 130 Central Michigan 27 16.1
74% 39 Washington 31 23.1, 77 Utah State 17 12.7
73% 206 Southern 50 40.7, 238 Jackson State 31 28.0
71% 174 Texas - El Paso 50 38.2, 226 New Mexico State 47 29.4
70% 95 Oregon State 35 30.7, 132 San Jose State 21 21.6
68% 203 Prairie View 53 42.6, 237 Alabama A&M 49 32.2
68% 150 Hawaii 47 28.6, 214 California - Davis 27 20.1
68% 90 Maryland 35 31.3, 142 South Florida 17 21.4
68% 87 Indiana 38 42.9, 84 Western Kentucky 35 37.7
67% 50 Virginia Tech 51 29.3, 118 Purdue 24 20.2
66% 121 Middle Tennessee State 73 38.7, 180 North Carolina - Charl 14 31.4
66% 116 Western Michigan 52 45.4, 207 Murray State 20 34.4
66% 86 Temple 25 33.3, 181 Massachusetts 23 21.6
66% 81 Toledo 30 38.9, 105 Iowa State 23 29.7
66% 74 Penn State 28 28.5, 91 Rutgers 3 20.7
66% 59 Eastern Washington 55 53.1, 110 Montana State 50 42.2
66% 46 Iowa 27 30.3, 63 Pittsburgh 24 23.4
66% 34 Florida 14 31.8, 72 Kentucky 9 23.7
65% 246 Incarnate Word 20 33.2, 249 Nicholls State 10 24.6
65% 222 Presbyterian 23 26.4, 239 Campbell 13 19.9
65% 215 Hampton 37 34.9, 234 Howard 19 27.3
65% 209 Southern Utah 30 27.1, 223 Northern Colorado 3 21.9
65% 153 Bucknell 19 29.9, 227 Cornell 14 21.4
65% 139 Charleston Southern 47 28.2, 202 East Tennessee State 7 18.9
65% 134 North Carolina A&T 14 27.4, 220 Elon 7 17.5
65% 133 McNeese State 28 35.9, 177 Stephen F. Austin 14 30.2
65% 124 Buffalo 33 32.3, 148 Florida Atlantic 15 29.9
65% 123 Wake Forest 17 27.0, 160 Army 14 23.6
65% 109 Dartmouth 31 32.7, 211 Georgetown 10 20.8
65% 104 Yale 29 37.8, 191 Colgate 28 28.2
65% 89 Rice 38 35.4, 141 North Texas 24 28.6
65% 76 Navy 45 38.7, 62 East Carolina 21 35.4
65% 69 North Carolina 48 36.8, 66 Illinois 14 33.7
65% 48 Northern Iowa 34 29.5, 102 California Poly 20 25.2
65% 27 Miami - Florida 36 38.3, 24 Nebraska 33 32.7
65% 16 Louisiana State 45 31.2, 13 Auburn 21 26.7
65% 15 Clemson 20 27.3, 32 Louisville 17 23.7
63% 143 Princeton 40 32.4, 161 Lafayette 7 29.6
62% 11 Florida State 14 32.8, 31 Boston College 0 31.3
56% 183 Lehigh 42 32.1, 190 Pennsylvania 21 30.7
56% 94 Georgia Southern 48 31.7, 107 The Citadel 13 30.8
54% 1 Mississippi 43 29.4, 5 Alabama 37 28.6
53% 192 Dayton 24 28.4, 138 Duquesne 13 27.8
51% 243 Texas Southern 24 31.1, 245 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 20 30.9
50% 168 Florida International 39 26.3, 189 North Carolina Central 14 26.2
49% 182 Towson 29 25.5, 157 Holy Cross 26 25.6
47% 114 Arkansas State 70 30.2, 115 Missouri State 7 30.6
47% 75 Virginia 35 25.2, 100 William & Mary 29 25.7
45% 117 Bryant 20 28.9, 144 Brown 16 30.7
38% 172 South Dakota 52 20.9, 198 Drake 0 23.8
38% 70 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 29.3, 85 Samford 21 31.3
36% 212 Weber State 32 31.9, 167 Sacramento State 14 34.8
36% 129 Stony Brook 31 22.0, 58 New Hampshire 6 26.2
35% 170 Monmouth 31 24.3, 165 Wagner 16 30.1
35% 113 Liberty 31 26.6, 79 Montana 21 30.0
35% 98 Colorado 27 31.7, 67 Colorado State 24 35.3
35% 47 California 45 30.5, 54 Texas 44 33.3
34% 219 Tennessee Tech 29 27.5, 175 Mercer 22 34.4
34% 145 Ohio 35 21.8, 83 Southeast Louisiana 14 32.4
34% 30 Notre Dame 30 34.2, 10 Georgia Tech 22 40.0
33% 52 Texas Tech 35 30.5, 23 Arkansas 24 39.2
32% 230 Marist 34 15.5, 106 Sacred Heart 27 30.3
32% 187 Tulane 38 15.6, 140 Maine 7 26.1
32% 51 Northwestern 19 23.2, 37 Duke 10 29.5
31% 20 Stanford 41 17.7, 8 Southern California 31 28.7
29% 173 South Alabama 34 14.2, 108 San Diego State 27 26.9
28% 197 Lamar 49 27.0, 82 Sam Houston State 46 50.1
27% 194 Southern Mississippi 56 23.7, 149 Texas State - San Marc 50 33.5
24% 216 Idaho 41 22.6, 147 Wofford 38 36.3
21% 224 Grambling 34 25.5, 210 Alabama State 10 38.5
19% 199 Furman 16 15.3, 78 Central Florida 15 33.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.13 51 1.05 16 0.91 25 1.13 12 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 88 83.1 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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