prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 130 Eastern Kentucky 51 42.3, 248 Austin Peay 13 4.7
93% 106 Sam Houston State 63 60.9, 253 Houston Baptist 14 9.3
93% 81 New Hampshire 57 40.2, 216 Central Connecticut 14 15.8
93% 78 Western Kentucky 56 46.8, 219 Miami - Ohio 14 22.2
93% 45 South Dakota State 34 48.4, 237 Robert Morris 10 10.9
93% 24 Nebraska 36 50.4, 160 Southern Mississippi 28 21.2
93% 11 Michigan State 30 41.8, 115 Central Michigan 10 13.4
93% 5 Ohio State 38 50.6, 123 Western Michigan 12 16.7
93% 3 Alabama 34 43.1, 154 Northeast Louisiana 0 7.1
93% 2 Baylor 70 56.2, 84 Rice 17 26.5
93% 1 Mississippi 27 46.9, 124 Vanderbilt 16 9.4
92% 17 Notre Dame 62 48.7, 189 Massachusetts 27 14.0
91% 224 Alabama State 45 36.7, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 15 13.5
91% 97 Colorado 48 56.1, 251 Nicholls State 0 14.0
91% 85 Georgia Southern 44 44.5, 212 Idaho 20 24.8
91% 54 Marshall 36 37.1, 201 Kent State 29 17.3
91% 4 Georgia 48 58.3, 200 Southern 6 20.8
89% 93 Fordham 54 37.7, 153 Monmouth 31 24.7
89% 26 Wisconsin 28 35.8, 139 Hawaii 0 12.6
88% 47 North Carolina 41 35.5, 176 Delaware 14 18.8
88% 25 West Virginia 45 41.2, 86 Maryland 6 24.7
87% 169 Bethune - Cookman 42 49.5, 250 Savannah State 12 14.2
87% 159 Maine 27 29.7, 234 Rhode Island 17 10.4
87% 67 Houston 59 44.6, 143 Texas State - San Marc 14 25.9
87% 59 James Madison 48 41.6, 162 Southern Methodist 45 22.2
86% 51 Iowa 62 38.6, 157 North Texas 16 15.3
85% 190 Morgan State 21 40.2, 239 Howard 13 24.4
85% 171 Furman 24 41.1, 232 Virginia Military 21 22.7
85% 48 Louisiana Tech 27 37.2, 150 Florida International 17 19.2
85% 39 Northwestern 24 36.4, 126 Ball State 19 16.9
84% 184 San Diego 38 39.6, 245 Valparaiso 6 19.2
84% 49 North Carolina State 63 35.1, 151 South Alabama 13 21.1
84% 14 Stanford 42 29.2, 95 Oregon State 24 15.4
83% 65 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 30.9, 225 Presbyterian 0 10.6
83% 64 Eastern Washington 28 53.9, 183 Sacramento State 20 37.4
83% 52 South Carolina 31 29.1, 100 Central Florida 14 17.6
83% 15 Texas A&M 28 34.4, 35 Arkansas 21 23.5
81% 30 Memphis 53 44.0, 79 Cincinnati 46 31.9
80% 62 Penn State 37 25.4, 129 San Diego State 21 10.8
79% 74 Colorado State 33 33.7, 177 Texas - San Antonio 31 19.7
77% 173 Texas - El Paso 27 36.9, 247 Incarnate Word 17 15.3
76% 146 Wofford 16 30.2, 220 Gardner - Webb 0 17.4
75% 186 Tennessee State 30 30.3, 235 Florida A&M 14 18.5
73% 209 North Dakota 31 27.4, 202 California - Davis 24 19.5
73% 103 Montana 23 36.2, 179 Northern Arizona 14 21.1
73% 42 Boston College 17 30.4, 76 Northern Illinois 14 18.1
72% 218 Drake 41 37.6, 243 Stetson 3 18.4
71% 13 Louisiana State 34 29.2, 87 Syracuse 24 15.6
70% 53 Jacksonville State 48 36.8, 155 Tennessee - Martin 41 21.7
70% 32 Boise State 56 31.8, 69 Virginia 14 24.9
69% 231 Alabama A&M 28 39.5, 246 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 9 23.7
69% 73 Minnesota 27 24.5, 116 Ohio 24 14.7
68% 108 Yale 33 47.7, 230 Cornell 26 25.1
68% 91 Rutgers 27 34.4, 131 Kansas 14 22.9
68% 80 Toledo 37 38.4, 96 Arkansas State 7 32.0
68% 8 Southern California 42 34.7, 40 Arizona State 14 27.2
67% 236 Jackson State 34 30.5, 244 Texas Southern 30 21.8
67% 58 Harvard 53 35.0, 148 Brown 27 15.5
67% 57 Coastal Carolina 31 36.9, 119 Bryant 17 25.2
67% 44 Louisville 45 32.8, 88 Samford 3 24.4
66% 242 Morehead State 34 42.6, 249 Davidson 0 35.1
66% 145 Jacksonville 20 29.9, 223 Marist 16 22.2
66% 141 Princeton 52 39.1, 165 Lehigh 26 30.3
66% 68 Navy 28 28.6, 144 Connecticut 18 20.2
66% 33 Florida 28 29.9, 28 Tennessee 27 22.9
66% 23 Oklahoma State 30 29.4, 56 Texas 27 24.6
66% 7 Texas Christian 55 45.2, 34 Texas Tech 52 38.5
65% 226 Butler 25 33.2, 238 Campbell 24 23.4
65% 217 Georgetown 24 28.2, 241 Columbia 16 18.6
65% 199 Abilene Christian 35 41.8, 198 Stephen F. Austin 32 37.9
65% 196 Weber State 38 24.0, 227 Northern Colorado 17 20.9
65% 194 Dayton 31 59.2, 233 Kennesaw State 27 47.6
65% 168 Army 58 31.6, 211 Eastern Michigan 36 27.1
65% 136 San Jose State 49 35.5, 134 Fresno State 23 31.4
65% 113 Appalachian State 49 37.8, 138 Old Dominion 0 33.2
65% 101 William & Mary 21 22.5, 120 Stony Brook 0 17.4
65% 98 Southern Illinois 34 30.2, 114 Liberty 13 26.5
65% 82 Indiana 31 31.2, 127 Wake Forest 24 28.8
65% 70 Illinois 27 37.5, 89 Middle Tennessee State 25 31.7
64% 170 New Mexico 38 32.2, 195 Wyoming 28 30.8
64% 140 Albany 17 25.7, 149 Duquesne 14 23.1
64% 94 Bowling Green 35 38.2, 125 Purdue 28 36.4
61% 178 Nevada - Las Vegas 80 33.0, 164 Idaho State 8 31.8
59% 55 Michigan 31 25.3, 29 Brigham Young 0 24.3
58% 172 Florida Atlantic 17 33.2, 206 North Carolina - Charl 7 32.1
54% 117 Dartmouth 49 29.5, 105 Sacred Heart 7 28.3
53% 118 Montana State 45 36.4, 102 California Poly 28 35.9
44% 229 Norfolk State 24 21.0, 207 Hampton 14 22.2
42% 210 Tennessee Tech 31 34.9, 215 Murray State 29 36.2
36% 147 Central Arkansas 49 34.6, 175 Northwestern State 21 35.9
36% 104 Nevada - Reno 24 30.9, 111 Buffalo 21 32.9
35% 213 Lafayette 35 18.1, 193 Wagner 24 23.1
35% 204 Grambling 70 43.0, 197 Prairie View 54 45.6
35% 71 East Carolina 35 28.9, 38 Virginia Tech 28 33.2
35% 19 Mississippi State 17 29.7, 22 Auburn 9 31.8
35% 18 California - Los Angel 56 32.1, 21 Arizona 30 34.7
34% 191 Colgate 31 17.5, 152 Holy Cross 14 25.0
33% 221 Elon 17 18.6, 167 Towson 13 25.0
33% 66 Kentucky 21 21.5, 31 Missouri 13 26.8
32% 156 Charleston Southern 33 19.5, 121 The Citadel 20 30.4
32% 43 California 30 30.7, 37 Washington 24 37.3
27% 192 Pennsylvania 24 16.8, 72 Villanova 13 37.8
25% 41 Duke 34 26.5, 9 Georgia Tech 20 36.3
18% 185 Akron 35 19.4, 112 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 30.9
9% 27 Utah 62 25.2, 6 Oregon 20 42.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.18 46 1.12 12 1.13 23 1.12 18 1.02 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 87 78.7 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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