prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 181 Prairie View 54 51.3, 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 29 27.3
94% 167 Duquesne 35 33.1, 241 Wagner 17 7.3
94% 112 Princeton 47 42.4, 235 Cornell 21 17.9
94% 109 New Hampshire 20 40.3, 209 Rhode Island 17 16.8
94% 42 Appalachian State 44 39.3, 149 Troy State 41 13.4
94% 19 Florida State 45 41.4, 90 Syracuse 21 17.0
94% 14 Memphis 41 52.0, 175 Tulane 13 18.6
94% 3 Oklahoma 62 47.6, 186 Kansas 7 10.5
93% 193 Tennessee State 20 35.5, 244 Austin Peay 6 9.6
93% 165 Lamar 55 49.2, 252 Houston Baptist 7 17.2
93% 96 Southern Mississippi 34 46.8, 223 Texas - El Paso 13 20.4
93% 86 Richmond 38 39.7, 213 Albany 31 17.0
93% 60 South Dakota State 39 43.8, 233 Missouri State 0 14.4
93% 23 Boise State 55 41.5, 141 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 19.9
93% 15 Utah 27 41.3, 136 Oregon State 12 14.8
92% 55 Utah State 58 37.2, 161 Wyoming 27 14.4
92% 50 Western Kentucky 55 48.4, 211 Old Dominion 30 24.2
92% 36 Wisconsin 48 32.3, 100 Rutgers 10 13.7
92% 26 Iowa 31 39.0, 121 Maryland 15 17.6
91% 231 Campbell 39 34.3, 253 Davidson 9 15.4
91% 118 North Carolina A&T 28 38.2, 236 Florida A&M 10 15.9
91% 40 Illinois State 27 41.9, 110 Indiana State 24 24.7
90% 154 Bethune - Cookman 49 37.3, 245 Delaware State 21 18.4
90% 114 Buffalo 29 37.0, 217 Miami - Ohio 24 20.6
90% 107 Eastern Washington 14 47.2, 187 Weber State 13 29.6
90% 67 Cincinnati 52 41.0, 169 Central Florida 7 21.4
90% 32 California - Los Angel 35 40.3, 117 Colorado 31 21.1
89% 157 San Diego 47 38.0, 243 Stetson 16 13.5
89% 155 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 35.4, 221 Tennessee Tech 17 20.2
89% 108 McNeese State 15 38.8, 224 Abilene Christian 13 18.4
89% 83 Western Michigan 58 47.4, 180 Eastern Michigan 28 29.6
89% 75 Georgia Southern 37 46.6, 164 Texas State - San Marc 13 27.7
89% 28 Texas A&M 35 36.5, 76 South Carolina 28 21.3
89% 18 Houston 34 34.2, 89 Vanderbilt 0 15.6
88% 234 Jackson State 26 36.5, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 22.0
88% 116 Arkansas State 48 41.2, 192 Georgia State 34 24.7
88% 115 Marshall 34 39.7, 230 North Carolina - Charl 10 18.6
87% 133 Eastern Illinois 34 40.1, 204 Murray State 20 28.1
87% 101 Tennessee - Chattanoog 41 33.8, 151 Western Carolina 13 18.5
87% 43 Louisville 20 26.7, 130 Wake Forest 19 13.5
86% 119 Villanova 13 24.9, 166 Maine 3 11.8
86% 58 Louisiana Tech 42 41.2, 146 Rice 17 30.0
86% 13 Michigan 29 25.3, 99 Minnesota 26 12.2
85% 194 Stephen F. Austin 55 35.7, 237 Incarnate Word 21 19.5
85% 65 Northern Iowa 20 27.9, 128 South Dakota 7 16.2
85% 25 Harvard 14 31.1, 70 Dartmouth 13 15.8
84% 87 The Citadel 21 38.3, 176 Mercer 19 24.5
83% 174 South Carolina State 34 26.1, 191 Hampton 20 17.1
83% 92 Air Force 58 28.5, 183 Hawaii 7 18.2
83% 51 Arkansas 63 37.5, 145 Tennessee - Martin 28 21.8
82% 208 Alabama State 35 30.3, 238 Alabama A&M 20 19.8
82% 2 Clemson 56 33.6, 39 North Carolina State 41 22.9
81% 6 Stanford 30 37.8, 56 Washington State 28 26.6
79% 31 Tennessee 52 34.9, 79 Kentucky 21 27.0
78% 205 Northwestern State 37 38.1, 242 Nicholls State 21 27.4
76% 173 Wofford 41 31.0, 212 Virginia Military 20 23.8
73% 7 Texas Christian 40 41.3, 20 West Virginia 10 31.8
72% 148 Louisiana - Lafayette 30 32.5, 184 Northeast Louisiana 24 22.4
71% 246 Howard 55 33.9, 247 Savannah State 9 26.2
71% 81 Penn State 39 25.4, 78 Illinois 0 18.0
70% 152 Northern Arizona 63 36.2, 188 Northern Colorado 21 25.3
70% 123 Towson 19 26.0, 158 Delaware 0 18.9
70% 77 Portland State 35 34.0, 125 Montana 16 25.9
70% 52 Navy 29 30.7, 68 South Florida 17 21.8
69% 202 Marist 35 26.6, 219 Butler 14 18.8
69% 201 North Carolina Central 24 24.3, 229 Norfolk State 16 17.1
68% 135 Central Arkansas 21 28.8, 170 Southeast Louisiana 16 21.0
68% 69 Central Michigan 14 25.9, 139 Akron 6 18.5
68% 38 Washington 49 33.6, 49 Arizona 3 26.8
68% 11 Mississippi 27 34.2, 53 Auburn 19 27.9
68% 5 Southern California 27 39.4, 33 California 21 33.1
67% 206 Bucknell 35 19.3, 240 Lafayette 24 12.8
67% 120 Holy Cross 34 29.5, 144 Bryant 33 22.0
67% 85 Jacksonville State 34 33.1, 84 Eastern Kentucky 0 26.8
67% 8 Notre Dame 24 31.1, 54 Temple 20 24.2
66% 189 Lehigh 33 29.0, 197 Georgetown 28 24.8
66% 156 Ball State 20 35.4, 153 Massachusetts 10 30.0
66% 150 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 33.8, 179 Sacred Heart 14 27.6
65% 143 Alcorn State 48 41.1, 171 Southern 7 37.3
65% 21 North Carolina 26 29.7, 45 Pittsburgh 19 26.9
65% 10 Oklahoma State 70 45.5, 35 Texas Tech 53 42.0
64% 172 Dayton 31 22.1, 162 Jacksonville 14 19.4
64% 111 Tulsa 40 39.0, 131 Southern Methodist 31 37.7
64% 57 William & Mary 44 34.7, 41 James Madison 41 32.2
63% 113 Southern Utah 54 28.4, 105 California Poly 37 26.8
63% 59 North Dakota State 35 33.0, 72 Southern Illinois 29 31.7
61% 215 Morehead State 38 26.8, 227 Drake 35 26.0
54% 214 Central Connecticut 34 21.8, 207 Robert Morris 0 21.5
54% 17 Florida 27 26.6, 30 Georgia 3 26.2
51% 198 Kennesaw State 23 48.2, 168 Monmouth 13 47.9
46% 34 Oregon 61 35.3, 46 Arizona State 55 35.6
41% 48 Virginia Tech 26 18.5, 73 Boston College 10 19.3
38% 82 Youngstown State 23 25.9, 80 Western Illinois 21 26.9
36% 225 Gardner - Webb 14 9.2, 220 Presbyterian 10 11.5
35% 102 Charleston Southern 33 26.1, 71 Coastal Carolina 25 28.6
35% 97 Iowa State 24 25.4, 66 Texas 0 28.2
35% 88 San Diego State 41 25.7, 103 Colorado State 17 28.1
34% 137 Pennsylvania 48 28.2, 129 Brown 28 33.9
33% 226 New Mexico State 55 36.0, 190 Idaho 48 41.5
33% 200 Florida Atlantic 31 19.8, 138 Florida International 17 26.0
30% 124 Connecticut 31 24.1, 61 East Carolina 13 30.2
24% 222 North Texas 30 23.5, 160 Texas - San Antonio 23 33.2
21% 185 Colgate 31 29.2, 93 Fordham 29 38.6
17% 182 Furman 20 22.4, 126 Samford 17 34.0
16% 74 Miami - Florida 30 22.2, 27 Duke 27 33.5
14% 196 North Dakota 44 29.6, 106 Montana State 38 41.9
13% 122 Purdue 55 27.6, 47 Nebraska 45 38.2
12% 104 Virginia 27 24.2, 22 Georgia Tech 21 39.0
11% 218 Columbia 17 14.0, 147 Yale 7 30.8
11% 210 Elon 21 7.5, 140 Stony Brook 7 25.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.10 35 1.12 10 1.07 36 0.93 24 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 90 86.7 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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