91% 132 Alcorn State 65 39.5, 238 Texas Southern 13 18.2
91% 95 Northern Arizona 49 40.6, 225 Sacramento State 35 19.7
91% 79 San Diego State 38 35.1, 174 Wyoming 3 15.6
91% 67 Jacksonville State 56 34.1, 146 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 14.4
91% 45 Texas A&M 41 41.9, 130 Western Carolina 17 22.2
90% 93 Sam Houston State 59 50.1, 202 Northwestern State 21 28.5
89% 211 Morgan State 21 32.7, 239 Florida A&M 7 17.3
89% 187 Southern 46 41.3, 242 Alabama A&M 7 24.3
89% 53 Cincinnati 49 47.7, 97 Tulsa 38 32.8
89% 12 Michigan 48 39.1, 88 Indiana 41 22.4
89% 11 Ohio State 28 35.8, 81 Illinois 3 19.4
89% 8 North Carolina 59 41.4, 70 Miami - Florida 21 25.2
88% 222 Tennessee Tech 42 31.8, 244 Austin Peay 24 18.3
88% 121 Eastern Kentucky 41 41.0, 204 Murray State 34 27.8
88% 52 William & Mary 31 33.6, 114 Towson 17 17.9
88% 49 James Madison 24 37.5, 182 Delaware 21 20.8
88% 48 Louisville 38 32.3, 87 Virginia 31 18.4
88% 24 West Virginia 38 32.9, 71 Texas 20 18.6
87% 112 California Poly 55 38.6, 217 California - Davis 38 24.7
87% 80 Northwestern 21 32.6, 123 Purdue 14 19.8
87% 68 Dartmouth 34 33.9, 156 Brown 18 19.0
87% 27 Iowa 40 32.1, 85 Minnesota 35 15.8
86% 168 Monmouth 21 26.3, 224 Presbyterian 16 12.7
86% 126 New Hampshire 24 30.7, 206 Albany 14 20.8
86% 94 Arkansas State 59 37.7, 205 Northeast Louisiana 21 23.7
86% 90 Charleston Southern 31 28.2, 170 Liberty 24 12.6
86% 75 Coastal Carolina 45 51.8, 190 Kennesaw State 13 27.3
86% 51 South Dakota State 30 27.4, 127 South Dakota 23 16.2
85% 107 Marshall 52 32.6, 138 Florida International 0 21.2
83% 233 Gardner - Webb 28 23.3, 250 East Tennessee State 3 7.0
83% 54 Northern Illinois 41 34.9, 120 Buffalo 30 25.6
82% 13 Houston 35 41.6, 29 Memphis 34 32.5
80% 135 Ohio 27 25.6, 199 Kent State 0 14.9
78% 113 Fordham 38 39.3, 191 Georgetown 31 29.6
77% 157 South Carolina State 17 22.6, 230 Norfolk State 10 11.6
76% 15 Florida 24 26.6, 72 South Carolina 14 16.1
75% 19 Florida State 34 34.7, 31 North Carolina State 17 25.3
74% 57 Nebraska 31 42.7, 125 Rutgers 14 32.9
72% 143 Akron 37 24.6, 209 Miami - Ohio 28 15.6
70% 203 North Carolina Central 41 31.1, 234 Howard 6 23.5
68% 106 Middle Tennessee State 24 31.8, 176 Florida Atlantic 17 24.1
68% 34 Texas Tech 59 42.9, 69 Kansas State 44 35.8
67% 173 Lamar 28 35.4, 232 Incarnate Word 21 26.5
67% 172 North Dakota 45 33.2, 178 Northern Colorado 14 26.1
67% 165 Dayton 28 21.9, 188 Marist 21 13.9
67% 134 Montana 57 38.0, 140 Eastern Washington 16 32.4
67% 122 Colorado State 49 32.9, 129 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 27.6
67% 109 Southern Mississippi 65 35.2, 166 Rice 10 28.8
67% 76 Georgia Southern 45 33.0, 103 Troy State 10 28.0
67% 32 North Dakota State 27 29.4, 86 Youngstown State 24 24.0
66% 213 Old Dominion 31 32.6, 219 Texas - El Paso 21 27.9
66% 198 Jacksonville 20 26.8, 220 Campbell 14 21.7
66% 186 Stony Brook 19 20.7, 215 Rhode Island 7 15.8
66% 155 Massachusetts 28 39.8, 189 Eastern Michigan 17 34.4
66% 144 Holy Cross 23 25.2, 207 Bucknell 7 19.5
66% 55 Illinois State 42 38.2, 82 Southern Illinois 21 33.8
66% 17 Bowling Green 41 42.0, 60 Western Michigan 27 37.1
65% 181 Texas - San Antonio 30 31.3, 227 North Carolina - Charl 27 25.8
65% 175 Colgate 49 31.3, 164 Lehigh 42 27.7
65% 100 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 25.6, 99 The Citadel 23 21.9
65% 46 Toledo 28 28.7, 73 Central Michigan 23 24.8
64% 139 Nevada - Reno 37 26.6, 128 San Jose State 34 24.2
64% 133 Samford 37 28.9, 159 Wofford 27 27.0
64% 104 Vanderbilt 21 18.9, 101 Kentucky 17 16.6
63% 6 Alabama 31 25.3, 14 Mississippi State 6 24.0
62% 154 Mercer 27 23.9, 183 Furman 20 22.3
61% 83 Portland State 24 30.1, 74 Southern Utah 23 28.9
59% 226 Butler 20 24.7, 221 Drake 13 23.9
58% 116 Villanova 21 25.5, 89 Richmond 20 24.6
50% 78 Air Force 35 26.8, 63 Utah State 28 26.8
47% 160 Prairie View 38 37.1, 216 Alabama State 13 37.3
41% 108 Western Illinois 37 30.4, 124 Indiana State 30 31.2
36% 179 Georgia State 41 32.1, 194 Texas State - San Marc 19 34.2
36% 150 Eastern Illinois 23 33.6, 142 Tennessee - Martin 21 35.8
35% 192 South Alabama 32 30.6, 153 Louisiana - Lafayette 25 34.2
35% 185 Fresno State 42 27.7, 193 Hawaii 14 31.2
35% 64 South Florida 44 20.8, 37 Temple 23 23.9
35% 58 Arizona State 27 24.1, 26 Washington 17 27.7
35% 43 Georgia 20 26.6, 41 Auburn 13 29.5
34% 229 Abilene Christian 21 21.0, 208 Southeast Louisiana 17 27.3
34% 42 Pittsburgh 31 25.1, 40 Duke 13 29.7
33% 231 Cornell 3 15.9, 177 Columbia 0 21.9
33% 163 Tulane 34 21.2, 158 Army 31 28.2
32% 92 Missouri 20 14.9, 47 Brigham Young 16 22.1
32% 44 Virginia Tech 23 25.9, 30 Georgia Tech 21 32.9
31% 3 Oklahoma 44 39.0, 1 Baylor 34 44.9
29% 61 Arizona 37 31.6, 22 Utah 30 38.9
28% 200 Elon 27 11.6, 169 Maine 22 20.0
25% 147 Yale 35 24.7, 111 Princeton 28 32.1
25% 33 Oregon 38 31.3, 7 Stanford 36 42.8
23% 50 Washington State 31 30.2, 28 California - Los Angel 27 39.3
17% 38 Arkansas 31 24.8, 16 Louisiana State 14 36.0
15% 243 Wagner 28 18.0, 196 Central Connecticut 7 30.5
14% 197 Sacred Heart 28 21.5, 137 Bryant 19 33.1
9% 98 Pennsylvania 35 18.4, 36 Harvard 25 38.4
6% 162 New Mexico 31 15.6, 20 Boise State 24 49.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.72 42 1.01 11 0.73 30 1.04 28 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116 89 90.6 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.
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