prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 192 Jacksonville 58 45.4, 248 Valparaiso 13 14.6
94% 163 South Carolina State 52 40.1, 250 Savannah State 29 8.9
94% 109 Alcorn State 44 46.5, 244 Alabama A&M 10 11.6
94% 86 Pennsylvania 34 41.9, 230 Cornell 21 13.0
94% 70 Louisiana Tech 17 44.1, 222 Texas - El Paso 15 20.0
94% 58 Brigham Young 52 45.2, 165 Fresno State 10 20.7
94% 56 Jacksonville State 42 49.4, 190 Murray State 20 19.3
94% 52 Auburn 56 50.4, 186 Idaho 34 18.1
94% 28 West Virginia 49 41.1, 189 Kansas 0 13.0
94% 22 North Dakota State 55 55.1, 242 Missouri State 0 4.2
94% 17 Florida 20 40.2, 184 Florida Atlantic 14 4.2
94% 2 Clemson 33 39.9, 113 Wake Forest 13 6.6
92% 122 Towson 38 32.1, 211 Rhode Island 21 14.0
92% 78 Southern Mississippi 56 45.1, 206 Old Dominion 31 18.4
91% 185 Sacred Heart 45 34.6, 240 Wagner 17 14.8
91% 153 Prairie View 56 47.8, 234 Jackson State 14 29.6
91% 142 Bethune - Cookman 35 40.7, 238 Florida A&M 14 20.3
91% 112 Middle Tennessee State 41 39.1, 209 North Texas 7 18.5
91% 45 Illinois State 46 36.2, 116 South Dakota 0 19.2
91% 23 Iowa 40 42.7, 117 Purdue 20 21.0
91% 3 Alabama 56 36.0, 99 Charleston Southern 6 9.2
90% 167 Weber State 35 36.1, 232 Idaho State 14 19.3
90% 161 Lehigh 49 39.2, 236 Lafayette 35 20.9
90% 156 San Diego 28 35.1, 226 Butler 27 16.7
90% 31 Washington 52 31.1, 147 Oregon State 7 12.5
89% 108 Kentucky 58 41.4, 220 North Carolina - Charl 10 17.6
89% 15 Navy 44 42.5, 103 Tulsa 21 26.9
89% 14 Florida State 52 32.9, 97 Tennessee - Chattanoog 13 14.5
89% 7 Notre Dame 19 30.6, 92 Boston College 16 15.3
88% 114 Western Carolina 24 40.9, 214 Virginia Military 20 27.2
88% 73 Dartmouth 17 32.9, 115 Princeton 10 19.4
88% 68 Central Michigan 27 28.2, 202 Kent State 14 11.9
88% 62 Utah State 31 35.0, 132 Nevada - Reno 27 19.8
88% 51 Harvard 38 30.7, 138 Yale 19 17.5
88% 41 Washington State 27 40.1, 107 Colorado 3 25.8
88% 32 North Carolina State 42 42.4, 93 Syracuse 29 26.2
88% 9 Stanford 35 40.1, 40 California 22 27.4
88% 1 Oklahoma 30 44.5, 19 Texas Christian 29 27.5
87% 231 Incarnate Word 30 36.1, 253 Houston Baptist 3 15.9
87% 131 New Hampshire 22 28.5, 170 Maine 6 16.8
87% 119 McNeese State 20 33.2, 178 Lamar 14 21.5
87% 59 Northern Iowa 49 35.4, 94 Southern Illinois 28 22.2
86% 140 Holy Cross 45 32.7, 188 Georgetown 7 20.7
86% 124 San Jose State 42 31.1, 208 Hawaii 23 18.9
86% 85 East Carolina 44 36.1, 182 Central Florida 7 24.6
86% 74 Western Kentucky 63 40.7, 166 Florida International 7 28.2
86% 64 San Diego State 52 34.5, 133 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 23.9
86% 44 James Madison 38 36.4, 121 Villanova 29 23.3
84% 43 Georgia 23 32.6, 67 Georgia Southern 17 21.0
79% 126 Ohio 48 30.9, 162 Ball State 31 21.3
75% 75 Kansas State 38 32.1, 83 Iowa State 35 23.2
75% 69 Southern Utah 49 37.4, 104 Northern Arizona 41 27.2
72% 173 Monmouth 23 21.1, 235 Gardner - Webb 9 12.1
68% 164 Wofford 38 24.4, 191 Furman 28 16.4
68% 159 Georgia State 24 33.6, 187 South Alabama 10 26.4
68% 47 Northern Illinois 27 37.6, 63 Western Michigan 19 30.2
67% 201 Texas State - San Marc 16 33.5, 212 Northeast Louisiana 3 27.5
67% 195 Stony Brook 20 19.3, 205 Albany 2 12.3
67% 179 Colgate 14 23.8, 213 Bucknell 10 16.9
67% 84 Portland State 34 40.4, 157 Eastern Washington 31 34.2
67% 53 Arizona State 52 41.1, 61 Arizona 37 35.6
67% 30 Pittsburgh 45 28.6, 57 Louisville 34 23.0
67% 13 Michigan 28 24.7, 66 Penn State 16 17.2
67% 5 North Carolina 30 35.6, 37 Virginia Tech 27 28.8
66% 177 Texas - San Antonio 34 33.8, 198 Rice 24 28.6
66% 134 Rutgers 31 32.3, 175 Army 21 28.1
66% 95 Sam Houston State 42 35.1, 150 Central Arkansas 13 30.0
66% 79 Minnesota 32 25.9, 96 Illinois 23 20.8
66% 60 Texas A&M 25 22.8, 100 Vanderbilt 0 17.2
66% 34 Tennessee 19 21.6, 89 Missouri 8 17.0
66% 16 Mississippi 38 33.9, 24 Louisiana State 17 28.3
65% 196 Northern Colorado 40 34.5, 225 Abilene Christian 36 29.2
65% 152 Duquesne 30 25.3, 136 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 23.0
65% 139 Southern Methodist 49 34.2, 154 Tulane 21 31.3
65% 111 Colorado State 28 30.8, 144 New Mexico 21 28.2
64% 151 Brown 28 22.9, 180 Columbia 23 21.2
64% 4 Baylor 45 46.1, 6 Oklahoma State 35 44.7
63% 42 South Florida 65 32.1, 54 Cincinnati 27 30.8
62% 223 Presbyterian 14 28.2, 197 Kennesaw State 6 25.6
61% 174 Delaware 14 16.0, 181 Elon 10 14.9
59% 20 Oregon 48 38.1, 12 Southern California 28 37.2
57% 148 Eastern Illinois 21 28.0, 127 Eastern Kentucky 7 27.3
51% 141 Akron 42 23.8, 125 Buffalo 21 23.7
47% 247 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 25 26.4, 249 Mississippi Valley Sta 19 26.6
46% 21 Mississippi State 51 28.8, 29 Arkansas 50 29.2
45% 101 Montana 54 35.7, 120 Montana State 35 36.2
37% 88 Indiana 47 36.8, 106 Maryland 28 37.9
36% 245 Delaware State 32 23.8, 239 Howard 31 25.8
36% 137 Tennessee - Martin 28 32.6, 145 Southeast Missouri Sta 25 34.3
36% 135 Samford 47 30.7, 149 Mercer 21 33.0
35% 216 California - Davis 35 24.7, 224 Sacramento State 21 28.2
35% 204 Northwestern State 33 38.6, 169 Stephen F. Austin 17 41.0
35% 98 Richmond 20 29.5, 50 William & Mary 9 33.9
35% 81 Miami - Florida 38 29.4, 38 Georgia Tech 21 32.9
35% 49 Temple 31 30.5, 18 Memphis 12 33.1
34% 215 Tennessee Tech 30 25.6, 194 Tennessee State 24 30.8
34% 102 The Citadel 23 23.9, 71 South Carolina 22 29.6
34% 91 Virginia 42 26.8, 55 Duke 34 31.3
33% 227 Drake 27 15.0, 168 Dayton 17 22.0
32% 229 Norfolk State 17 15.5, 207 Morgan State 10 24.2
32% 128 Indiana State 27 26.3, 90 Youngstown State 24 32.4
32% 36 California - Los Angel 17 26.1, 25 Utah 9 32.8
29% 39 Toledo 44 33.3, 11 Bowling Green 28 41.5
23% 155 North Dakota 45 29.3, 110 California Poly 21 39.7
23% 26 Michigan State 17 20.8, 8 Ohio State 14 32.2
19% 105 Western Illinois 30 21.4, 48 South Dakota State 24 30.1
17% 203 Miami - Ohio 20 21.5, 160 Massachusetts 13 31.4
14% 252 Davidson 20 22.4, 246 Stetson 17 34.4
14% 218 Morehead State 20 24.5, 183 Marist 17 35.4
14% 171 Liberty 24 20.5, 72 Coastal Carolina 21 33.5
14% 87 Northwestern 13 10.5, 35 Wisconsin 7 24.3
13% 233 Nicholls State 27 12.1, 217 Southeast Louisiana 24 27.8
13% 76 Air Force 37 22.7, 33 Boise State 30 36.1
12% 237 Robert Morris 21 14.1, 146 Bryant 20 27.7
12% 193 North Carolina Central 21 15.5, 130 North Carolina A&T 16 31.4
10% 210 New Mexico State 37 28.1, 158 Louisiana - Lafayette 34 43.3
9% 118 Connecticut 20 15.7, 10 Houston 17 34.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.91 43 0.96 7 0.76 37 0.84 24 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 117 83 91.2 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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