prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 73 Central Michigan 35 46.3, 202 Eastern Michigan 28 17.9
94% 66 Georgia Southern 55 43.1, 190 South Alabama 17 15.6
94% 65 Appalachian State 28 42.3, 168 Louisiana - Lafayette 7 19.1
94% 15 Oregon 52 53.1, 155 Oregon State 42 21.3
93% 106 Alcorn State 14 43.5, 239 Jackson State 10 17.1
92% 75 Kansas State 45 37.2, 203 Kansas 14 16.2
92% 36 Utah 20 35.1, 107 Colorado 14 15.5
92% 34 Memphis 63 51.5, 125 Southern Methodist 0 28.1
91% 85 Arkansas State 52 50.1, 197 New Mexico State 28 30.9
91% 14 Bowling Green 48 50.6, 169 Ball State 10 26.4
90% 46 Northern Iowa 53 31.3, 141 Eastern Illinois 17 12.8
89% 63 William & Mary 52 31.2, 147 Duquesne 49 14.3
89% 37 Tennessee 53 26.5, 123 Vanderbilt 28 9.5
89% 20 West Virginia 30 35.7, 82 Iowa State 6 20.4
89% 19 South Florida 44 40.8, 211 Central Florida 3 14.8
88% 50 San Diego State 31 34.9, 126 Nevada - Reno 14 18.8
88% 4 Clemson 37 36.0, 80 South Carolina 32 20.2
88% 2 Alabama 29 33.3, 58 Auburn 13 20.2
87% 129 Akron 20 23.2, 196 Kent State 0 10.5
86% 24 Michigan State 55 28.0, 64 Penn State 16 15.9
85% 40 Temple 27 24.5, 98 Connecticut 3 12.7
85% 23 Arkansas 28 28.5, 88 Missouri 3 16.4
79% 49 Boise State 40 36.2, 108 San Jose State 23 26.9
77% 195 Rice 27 38.7, 231 North Carolina - Charl 7 27.1
71% 113 Colorado State 34 36.4, 178 Fresno State 31 29.2
70% 21 Washington 45 30.1, 39 Washington State 10 22.3
69% 55 Western Kentucky 49 38.8, 89 Marshall 28 30.9
68% 5 North Carolina 45 38.6, 32 North Carolina State 34 31.7
67% 122 Middle Tennessee State 42 32.6, 181 Texas - San Antonio 7 25.5
67% 109 Tulsa 45 37.1, 163 Tulane 34 31.8
67% 71 Northwestern 24 23.9, 100 Illinois 14 17.8
67% 62 Duke 27 26.4, 105 Wake Forest 21 20.5
67% 44 Wisconsin 31 23.4, 81 Minnesota 21 17.3
67% 27 Louisiana State 19 31.2, 41 Texas A&M 7 24.3
67% 7 Stanford 38 34.4, 9 Notre Dame 36 28.1
66% 213 Hawaii 28 26.2, 227 Northeast Louisiana 26 20.3
66% 154 Florida Atlantic 33 30.8, 205 Old Dominion 31 24.9
66% 145 Grambling 34 45.6, 175 Southern 23 40.5
66% 51 Louisville 38 31.8, 99 Kentucky 24 27.6
66% 35 California 48 39.0, 43 Arizona State 46 35.2
66% 30 Virginia Tech 23 31.6, 78 Virginia 20 26.4
66% 18 Southern California 40 31.5, 25 California - Los Angel 21 26.1
66% 1 Oklahoma 58 38.2, 6 Oklahoma State 23 33.6
65% 176 Idaho 38 38.7, 198 Texas State - San Marc 31 36.4
65% 104 Tennessee - Chattanoog 50 33.2, 111 Fordham 20 30.9
65% 95 Western Illinois 24 27.2, 174 Dayton 7 24.0
65% 87 Sam Houston State 42 33.7, 72 Southern Utah 39 30.4
65% 76 Indiana 54 41.7, 117 Purdue 36 38.8
65% 29 Texas Tech 48 39.7, 83 Texas 45 37.6
64% 48 Brigham Young 51 29.4, 70 Utah State 28 28.1
64% 17 Houston 52 30.4, 10 Navy 31 28.0
57% 11 Florida State 27 22.5, 42 Florida 2 21.9
56% 8 Mississippi 38 31.4, 22 Mississippi State 27 30.8
50% 26 Iowa 28 33.2, 53 Nebraska 20 33.2
48% 158 Georgia State 31 27.6, 132 Troy State 21 27.8
45% 245 Alabama A&M 38 24.4, 241 Texas Southern 7 24.8
41% 12 Ohio State 42 24.0, 13 Michigan 13 25.0
39% 119 Maryland 46 31.3, 127 Rutgers 41 32.3
37% 212 Texas - El Paso 20 24.0, 220 North Texas 17 25.3
36% 192 Wyoming 35 29.4, 151 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 31.1
36% 90 Syracuse 20 21.1, 84 Boston College 17 23.1
36% 45 Georgia 13 25.1, 52 Georgia Tech 7 26.6
35% 79 Southern Mississippi 58 30.9, 91 Louisiana Tech 24 34.1
35% 69 Cincinnati 19 35.5, 74 East Carolina 16 37.9
34% 93 Montana 24 22.9, 56 South Dakota State 17 26.7
34% 16 Texas Christian 28 41.1, 3 Baylor 21 45.2
33% 102 The Citadel 41 26.1, 96 Coastal Carolina 38 33.2
23% 68 Miami - Florida 29 24.4, 31 Pittsburgh 24 33.5
23% 61 Western Michigan 35 26.3, 38 Toledo 30 35.0
14% 164 Massachusetts 31 23.5, 131 Buffalo 26 33.3
13% 182 Colgate 27 20.5, 128 New Hampshire 20 33.4
13% 143 New Mexico 47 21.0, 59 Air Force 35 33.4
10% 120 Ohio 26 21.1, 47 Northern Illinois 21 37.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.61 35 1.09 6 0.89 16 0.86 10 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 73 53 54.0 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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