prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 16 Navy 21 42.8, 172 Army 17 15.5
86% 64 Jacksonville State 58 30.8, 113 Charleston Southern 38 17.6
83% 70 Sam Houston State 48 39.8, 142 Colgate 21 28.0
64% 20 North Dakota State 23 25.3, 28 Northern Iowa 13 23.1
19% 72 Richmond 39 26.7, 23 Illinois State 27 37.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 1.55 0 0.00 3 0.80 1 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 4 4.1 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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