prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 76 Southern Mississippi 56 59.4, 250 Savannah State 0 14.9
85% 4 Baylor 40 61.3, 153 Southern Methodist 13 21.4
83% 3 Oklahoma 59 53.0, 193 Northeast Louisiana 17 9.1
82% 22 Georgia 26 56.4, 241 Nicholls State 24 9.6
81% 14 Washington 59 50.2, 185 Idaho 14 13.4
81% 2 Ohio State 48 56.0, 105 Tulsa 3 21.1
80% 84 Coastal Carolina 49 47.6, 240 Florida A&M 10 12.1
79% 58 James Madison 56 51.0, 221 Central Connecticut 21 18.9
78% 15 Houston 42 52.4, 189 Lamar 0 20.3
77% 171 Sacred Heart 42 45.8, 251 Valparaiso 14 14.9
76% 16 Michigan 51 43.3, 177 Central Florida 14 10.7
76% 6 Mississippi 38 44.1, 156 Wofford 13 12.4
76% 5 Clemson 30 47.9, 130 Troy State 24 17.0
74% 49 North Dakota State 50 42.6, 122 Eastern Washington 44 25.1
73% 62 Texas 41 42.3, 194 Texas - El Paso 7 13.8
73% 39 Nebraska 52 46.0, 164 Wyoming 17 20.3
73% 9 Florida State 52 37.3, 79 Charleston Southern 8 17.7
72% 72 Missouri 61 41.4, 192 Eastern Michigan 21 13.8
72% 10 Oregon 44 49.8, 90 Virginia 26 27.1
72% 1 Alabama 38 47.1, 36 Western Kentucky 10 22.9
71% 26 Texas A&M 67 50.5, 158 Prairie View 0 27.5
70% 111 Rutgers 52 43.9, 239 Howard 14 21.6
70% 82 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 37.1, 227 Presbyterian 0 8.8
70% 75 Richmond 34 42.0, 225 Norfolk State 0 14.5
70% 28 California - Los Angel 42 45.0, 138 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 22.7
70% 12 Notre Dame 39 44.9, 114 Nevada - Reno 10 22.7
69% 77 Appalachian State 31 43.9, 187 Old Dominion 7 23.1
69% 71 Marshall 62 43.5, 213 Morgan State 0 20.4
69% 59 South Dakota State 56 41.7, 220 Drake 28 16.7
69% 47 Miami - Florida 38 41.2, 151 Florida Atlantic 10 18.0
69% 38 Georgia Tech 35 40.9, 165 Mercer 10 18.5
68% 127 Alcorn State 21 42.4, 228 Alabama State 18 21.9
68% 98 Colorado 56 45.9, 218 Idaho State 7 24.7
68% 73 Air Force 48 38.8, 155 Georgia State 14 19.7
68% 70 Indiana 30 45.8, 160 Ball State 20 28.9
68% 66 Western Michigan 70 39.6, 198 North Carolina Central 21 20.8
68% 57 Georgia Southern 24 40.4, 170 South Alabama 9 22.9
68% 31 Auburn 51 41.7, 101 Arkansas State 14 24.2
68% 30 Wisconsin 54 32.4, 126 Akron 10 10.8
67% 166 Monmouth 34 34.7, 244 Delaware State 20 16.8
67% 78 Boston College 26 29.8, 167 Massachusetts 7 11.5
67% 29 Navy 28 34.1, 125 Connecticut 24 15.0
66% 191 Tennessee State 40 34.2, 242 Jackson State 26 19.8
66% 109 Villanova 26 35.5, 174 Lehigh 21 21.0
66% 104 The Citadel 19 33.7, 190 Furman 14 18.7
66% 94 Southern Illinois 30 41.1, 157 Southeast Missouri Sta 22 27.1
66% 74 Louisiana Tech 53 34.0, 188 South Carolina State 24 17.6
66% 56 Bowling Green 27 41.3, 161 North Dakota 26 26.4
66% 51 Arizona 31 51.2, 162 Grambling 21 36.4
66% 45 Toledo 45 34.0, 163 Maine 3 17.9
66% 37 Iowa 42 35.4, 96 Iowa State 3 20.9
66% 20 Boise State 31 41.3, 52 Washington State 28 28.6
65% 243 Alabama A&M 35 28.4, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 22.1
65% 222 Tennessee Tech 41 30.9, 246 Austin Peay 7 22.1
65% 199 Albany 35 25.6, 223 Rhode Island 7 20.5
65% 186 Dayton 13 31.5, 236 Robert Morris 0 16.1
65% 172 Fresno State 31 38.2, 215 Sacramento State 3 31.7
65% 159 Delaware 24 28.3, 232 Lafayette 6 16.7
65% 152 Army 31 32.8, 168 Rice 14 26.3
65% 150 Western Carolina 44 29.8, 237 Gardner - Webb 14 17.4
65% 146 South Dakota 52 29.2, 183 Weber State 49 18.8
65% 144 Eastern Illinois 21 32.9, 195 Miami - Ohio 17 22.8
65% 142 Duquesne 30 25.5, 202 Bucknell 19 15.6
65% 137 North Carolina A&T 39 29.3, 201 Kent State 36 15.6
65% 123 California Poly 38 37.0, 173 San Diego 16 32.2
65% 119 Ohio 37 31.4, 184 Kansas 21 26.4
65% 117 Southern Utah 28 30.8, 204 Southeast Louisiana 23 17.5
65% 116 Colorado State 23 34.1, 182 Texas - San Antonio 14 22.0
65% 102 Maryland 41 35.0, 178 Florida International 14 23.2
65% 97 Western Illinois 34 39.7, 132 Northern Arizona 20 28.5
65% 91 William & Mary 24 34.9, 196 Hampton 14 22.2
65% 67 Minnesota 58 33.3, 108 Indiana State 28 25.8
65% 64 Temple 38 24.8, 181 Stony Brook 0 13.2
65% 60 San Diego State 45 38.7, 95 California 40 34.5
65% 53 South Florida 48 35.3, 86 Northern Illinois 17 25.9
65% 50 Pittsburgh 42 27.8, 68 Penn State 39 22.8
65% 46 Florida 45 32.3, 87 Kentucky 7 19.6
65% 43 Illinois State 9 28.9, 85 Northwestern 7 21.4
65% 33 Utah 20 29.8, 41 Brigham Young 19 24.0
65% 32 Arizona State 68 48.2, 34 Texas Tech 55 43.8
65% 27 Louisville 62 36.6, 88 Syracuse 28 25.7
65% 25 West Virginia 38 34.0, 83 Youngstown State 21 24.6
65% 24 Southern California 45 35.3, 65 Utah State 7 24.0
65% 19 Mississippi State 27 34.0, 63 South Carolina 14 21.9
65% 13 Louisiana State 34 36.3, 55 Jacksonville State 13 28.4
65% 11 North Carolina 48 39.3, 89 Illinois 23 27.9
63% 140 Towson 35 31.9, 147 Saint Francis - Pennsy 28 28.0
62% 23 Tennessee 45 30.9, 42 Virginia Tech 24 27.3
56% 149 Liberty 55 32.0, 179 Jacksonville 7 30.0
56% 106 Samford 35 37.4, 154 Central Arkansas 29 35.5
56% 80 Cincinnati 38 36.0, 112 Purdue 20 34.3
51% 135 Montana State 27 38.2, 141 Bryant 24 38.0
50% 134 New Hampshire 39 29.2, 124 Holy Cross 28 29.2
47% 118 Vanderbilt 47 22.7, 100 Middle Tennessee State 24 23.7
45% 176 Tulane 66 30.7, 197 Southern 21 32.2
45% 69 East Carolina 33 34.1, 40 North Carolina State 30 35.6
44% 205 Northern Colorado 55 35.3, 217 Abilene Christian 52 37.3
43% 207 Georgetown 20 21.0, 212 Marist 17 23.3
41% 219 Virginia Military 17 35.4, 233 Morehead State 13 37.8
39% 120 San Jose State 66 30.1, 103 Portland State 35 33.7
35% 238 Incarnate Word 21 27.2, 203 Northwestern State 18 37.3
35% 231 Missouri State 28 33.7, 210 Murray State 22 38.6
35% 230 North Carolina - Charl 47 23.2, 214 Elon 14 28.6
35% 211 North Texas 41 26.5, 145 Bethune - Cookman 20 40.4
35% 169 Louisiana - Lafayette 30 21.3, 131 McNeese State 22 32.5
35% 93 Montana 20 21.0, 44 Northern Iowa 14 32.9
35% 17 Arkansas 41 29.1, 8 Texas Christian 38 41.2
34% 208 New Mexico State 32 30.5, 133 New Mexico 31 43.6
34% 121 Wake Forest 24 16.2, 54 Duke 14 31.1
33% 254 Houston Baptist 24 18.0, 245 Texas Southern 20 36.9
31% 234 Hawaii 41 26.9, 148 Tennessee - Martin 36 40.1
31% 99 Central Michigan 30 23.1, 18 Oklahoma State 27 43.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.66 78 1.26 16 1.35 7 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 92 75.0 1.23
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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