prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 56 Arizona 47 50.6, 224 Hawaii 28 18.9
93% 50 Washington State 56 50.9, 190 Idaho 6 22.1
93% 40 Florida 32 40.2, 205 North Texas 0 5.8
93% 34 Toledo 52 46.3, 171 Fresno State 17 18.1
93% 18 Wisconsin 23 44.0, 177 Georgia State 17 6.3
93% 6 Clemson 59 42.7, 192 South Carolina State 0 8.1
93% 5 Baylor 38 52.4, 183 Rice 10 17.9
92% 26 Arizona State 32 45.5, 212 Texas - San Antonio 28 14.1
91% 98 Southern Illinois 50 47.3, 208 Murray State 17 26.1
91% 96 Kentucky 62 48.1, 209 New Mexico State 42 24.3
91% 41 North Carolina State 49 46.1, 189 Old Dominion 22 18.4
89% 51 Kansas State 63 39.4, 161 Florida Atlantic 7 15.7
89% 14 Texas Christian 41 44.1, 107 Iowa State 20 20.7
88% 62 Georgia Southern 23 42.3, 199 Northeast Louisiana 21 15.2
88% 46 Harvard 51 48.8, 234 Rhode Island 21 6.8
88% 44 Western Kentucky 31 44.1, 188 Miami - Ohio 24 24.9
88% 29 Memphis 43 47.3, 196 Kansas 7 17.5
87% 20 Arkansas 42 52.0, 184 Texas State - San Marc 3 19.3
86% 30 Utah 34 34.1, 128 San Jose State 17 17.7
85% 38 Navy 21 35.2, 149 Tulane 14 19.4
84% 25 Tennessee 28 42.2, 119 Ohio 19 22.1
83% 160 Central Arkansas 24 38.3, 207 Northwestern State 10 24.6
82% 116 The Citadel 31 29.6, 235 Gardner - Webb 24 14.4
81% 81 Youngstown State 38 35.8, 238 Robert Morris 6 8.2
78% 115 Princeton 35 42.8, 232 Lafayette 31 18.9
78% 87 Central Michigan 44 37.7, 148 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 23.5
78% 13 Louisiana State 23 30.2, 27 Mississippi State 20 19.2
78% 11 Houston 40 37.2, 69 Cincinnati 16 28.3
78% 4 Stanford 27 34.2, 22 Southern California 10 21.7
77% 42 Georgia Tech 38 28.1, 92 Vanderbilt 7 16.3
76% 97 William & Mary 35 35.2, 227 Norfolk State 10 10.4
75% 10 Michigan 45 38.1, 72 Colorado 28 20.6
74% 35 Texas Tech 59 49.8, 61 Louisiana Tech 45 40.8
73% 168 Mercer 34 33.4, 214 Tennessee Tech 27 22.9
73% 91 Maryland 30 34.5, 172 Central Florida 24 24.2
70% 245 Texas Southern 31 30.7, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 19.5
69% 204 Hampton 34 32.7, 239 Howard 7 23.8
69% 180 Sacred Heart 31 25.3, 210 Marist 6 17.8
69% 163 Grambling 35 43.0, 242 Jackson State 14 28.6
69% 110 Villanova 40 28.7, 143 Towson 21 18.1
69% 88 Sam Houston State 44 46.2, 193 Lamar 31 30.6
68% 187 Prairie View 41 38.4, 240 Alabama A&M 20 32.0
68% 85 Utah State 34 34.3, 99 Arkansas State 20 27.2
68% 31 Oklahoma State 45 39.1, 48 Pittsburgh 38 32.3
68% 12 Washington 41 40.4, 93 Portland State 3 21.8
67% 167 Massachusetts 21 27.3, 191 Florida International 13 21.8
67% 151 Weber State 14 37.9, 218 Sacramento State 7 23.5
67% 145 Army 66 30.6, 200 Texas - El Paso 14 23.2
67% 131 Oregon State 37 40.2, 215 Idaho State 7 26.2
67% 79 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 30.4, 174 Furman 14 17.4
67% 71 Penn State 34 26.2, 75 Temple 27 19.1
67% 43 South Florida 45 36.0, 94 Syracuse 20 28.5
67% 1 Alabama 48 33.4, 8 Mississippi 43 24.4
66% 117 Rutgers 37 36.7, 138 New Mexico 28 30.0
66% 57 San Diego State 42 31.4, 103 Northern Illinois 28 24.8
65% 170 Wyoming 45 33.2, 201 California - Davis 22 29.5
65% 146 Colorado State 47 36.4, 206 Northern Colorado 21 29.6
65% 144 Duquesne 34 26.6, 186 Dayton 20 19.4
65% 135 Nevada - Reno 38 32.2, 132 Buffalo 14 29.0
65% 120 Indiana State 27 31.5, 156 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 28.1
65% 102 Wake Forest 38 17.6, 159 Delaware 21 13.6
65% 76 Dartmouth 22 32.1, 112 New Hampshire 21 23.2
65% 63 Virginia Tech 49 21.6, 80 Boston College 0 17.5
65% 59 South Carolina 20 33.1, 66 East Carolina 15 28.3
65% 58 Jacksonville State 27 37.7, 84 Coastal Carolina 26 29.6
65% 53 Western Michigan 34 33.5, 100 Illinois 10 28.7
65% 32 Georgia 28 21.8, 70 Missouri 27 18.0
65% 9 Louisville 63 33.5, 7 Florida State 20 29.7
64% 169 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 29.3, 162 South Alabama 23 27.6
64% 150 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 29.6, 202 Columbia 9 25.3
64% 47 Miami - Florida 45 28.3, 73 Appalachian State 10 26.3
64% 15 North Carolina 56 45.0, 45 James Madison 28 42.9
58% 82 Northwestern 24 23.8, 60 Duke 13 22.7
56% 2 Ohio State 45 31.6, 3 Oklahoma 24 30.7
46% 241 Nicholls State 35 26.9, 237 Incarnate Word 28 28.1
43% 36 Nebraska 35 42.3, 16 Oregon 32 43.0
41% 19 Michigan State 36 32.4, 17 Notre Dame 28 34.0
39% 155 North Dakota 47 28.0, 130 South Dakota 44 29.5
36% 141 Brown 35 31.3, 142 Bryant 27 35.9
36% 126 Connecticut 13 20.1, 89 Virginia 10 22.1
36% 101 Tulsa 58 31.0, 133 North Carolina A&T 21 34.1
36% 83 California 50 39.5, 55 Texas 43 41.8
35% 231 Presbyterian 31 15.6, 228 Campbell 14 23.8
35% 216 Southern 64 30.4, 220 Alabama State 6 32.1
35% 198 Eastern Michigan 37 38.5, 217 North Carolina - Charl 19 43.4
35% 194 Kent State 27 20.4, 166 Monmouth 7 25.7
35% 178 Tennessee State 31 28.6, 140 Bethune - Cookman 24 35.6
35% 173 Albany 45 25.5, 124 Holy Cross 28 28.5
35% 165 Colgate 55 26.5, 122 Yale 13 37.1
35% 157 Ball State 41 26.3, 129 Eastern Kentucky 14 34.4
35% 105 Middle Tennessee State 41 35.1, 77 Bowling Green 21 40.0
35% 37 California - Los Angel 17 26.7, 39 Brigham Young 14 28.9
35% 23 Texas A&M 29 27.9, 21 Auburn 16 32.0
34% 222 Cornell 24 16.3, 185 Bucknell 16 29.2
33% 182 Stephen F. Austin 31 23.8, 123 McNeese State 28 40.1
33% 164 Lehigh 49 30.2, 111 Pennsylvania 28 42.7
32% 136 Akron 65 20.1, 64 Marshall 38 37.4
32% 118 Eastern Washington 34 29.9, 52 Northern Iowa 30 37.9
30% 95 North Dakota State 23 22.7, 28 Iowa 21 36.1
23% 247 East Tennessee State 34 18.5, 139 Western Carolina 31 36.3
23% 154 Southern Methodist 29 24.8, 106 Liberty 14 38.3
22% 125 Troy State 37 24.8, 67 Southern Mississippi 31 40.1
20% 176 Stony Brook 42 13.8, 65 Richmond 14 26.0
17% 114 California Poly 38 26.3, 49 South Dakota State 31 41.3
14% 254 Houston Baptist 27 23.6, 213 Abilene Christian 24 45.4
14% 152 Eastern Illinois 24 19.5, 54 Illinois State 21 39.3
12% 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 45 16.6, 121 Alcorn State 43 53.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.70 58 0.97 16 0.90 17 0.89 11 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 74 78.0 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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