prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 60 Louisiana Tech 28 48.2, 223 Texas - El Paso 7 15.3
94% 59 Western Kentucky 50 58.3, 251 Houston Baptist 3 13.2
94% 35 Texas Tech 55 56.3, 193 Kansas 19 27.6
94% 26 Auburn 58 42.8, 191 Northeast Louisiana 7 9.7
94% 5 Houston 42 40.0, 124 Connecticut 14 8.6
94% 2 Ohio State 58 49.5, 104 Rutgers 0 12.0
94% 1 Alabama 34 53.9, 111 Kentucky 6 11.9
93% 120 Portland State 45 45.9, 226 Idaho State 20 23.1
93% 113 Liberty 41 32.9, 237 Robert Morris 7 11.1
93% 76 Eastern Washington 63 52.4, 201 California - Davis 30 29.0
93% 69 Southern Mississippi 44 42.6, 189 Rice 28 21.1
93% 67 Troy State 34 43.4, 196 Idaho 13 23.8
93% 32 James Madison 43 44.9, 147 Delaware 20 21.0
91% 71 Tennessee - Chattanoog 37 36.8, 244 East Tennessee State 7 6.2
91% 18 Boise State 21 39.4, 101 Utah State 10 19.8
90% 238 Jackson State 16 36.1, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 15.6
90% 151 McNeese State 38 37.5, 220 Nicholls State 13 15.8
90% 27 Nebraska 31 39.3, 116 Illinois 16 18.3
89% 92 Appalachian State 17 34.3, 159 Georgia State 3 18.5
88% 236 Morehead State 29 38.9, 250 Valparaiso 26 25.9
88% 56 Harvard 31 39.3, 207 Georgetown 17 10.7
88% 42 Colorado 47 38.5, 121 Oregon State 6 21.6
88% 34 Notre Dame 50 44.5, 105 Syracuse 33 29.2
87% 28 Arkansas 52 41.4, 187 Alcorn State 10 21.3
87% 14 Baylor 45 38.2, 96 Iowa State 42 22.1
86% 99 Middle Tennessee State 30 38.5, 200 North Texas 13 23.5
86% 93 Maryland 50 36.6, 125 Purdue 7 26.0
85% 239 Alabama State 41 34.7, 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 21 21.9
85% 102 Boston College 35 28.1, 153 Buffalo 3 13.3
85% 87 Villanova 42 29.6, 212 Elon 7 12.2
84% 12 Texas A&M 24 30.8, 86 South Carolina 13 18.8
83% 88 Temple 45 33.3, 161 Southern Methodist 20 20.8
83% 74 Richmond 31 36.7, 135 Towson 28 24.2
83% 38 California - Los Angel 45 34.0, 61 Arizona 24 24.8
81% 70 Youngstown State 30 39.4, 126 South Dakota 20 24.9
80% 224 Morgan State 20 38.6, 247 Delaware State 17 21.0
78% 228 Murray State 45 34.0, 246 Austin Peay 17 24.6
78% 50 North Carolina State 33 30.2, 100 Wake Forest 16 17.6
77% 130 Holy Cross 38 32.3, 202 Lafayette 28 25.2
75% 89 Sam Houston State 63 45.5, 185 Stephen F. Austin 28 31.7
74% 63 Northern Iowa 42 34.9, 97 Southern Illinois 21 24.2
73% 156 Central Arkansas 58 39.5, 219 Abilene Christian 27 28.9
73% 4 Michigan 14 31.9, 16 Wisconsin 7 20.6
71% 149 Grambling 36 43.7, 176 Prairie View 16 37.8
71% 137 North Carolina A&T 31 28.7, 192 Hampton 9 18.9
70% 98 New Hampshire 21 30.3, 117 William & Mary 12 24.6
70% 21 West Virginia 17 32.1, 36 Kansas State 16 26.2
69% 242 Florida A&M 19 30.8, 249 Savannah State 14 21.1
68% 109 Akron 31 30.1, 180 Kent State 27 24.1
68% 78 Montana 43 32.8, 106 Southern Utah 20 25.6
68% 65 South Dakota State 52 34.0, 79 Western Illinois 14 27.3
68% 24 Southern California 41 38.3, 41 Arizona State 20 31.4
68% 23 Louisiana State 42 25.8, 45 Missouri 7 17.7
67% 240 Texas Southern 34 29.1, 243 Alabama A&M 31 22.4
67% 178 Old Dominion 52 36.2, 230 North Carolina - Charl 17 29.8
67% 114 Lehigh 63 34.7, 167 Yale 35 29.4
67% 53 Pittsburgh 43 43.8, 94 Marshall 27 32.7
67% 49 Florida 13 21.8, 91 Vanderbilt 6 13.8
67% 44 Oklahoma State 49 37.0, 55 Texas 31 30.2
66% 225 Marist 24 26.0, 234 Campbell 7 18.8
66% 172 Mercer 33 32.5, 210 Virginia Military 30 26.6
66% 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 45 37.5, 169 Fresno State 20 33.4
66% 141 New Mexico 48 33.1, 164 San Jose State 41 27.5
66% 119 The Citadel 37 33.8, 154 Western Carolina 14 29.3
66% 112 Samford 28 30.2, 145 Wofford 26 22.0
66% 75 Penn State 29 30.5, 82 Minnesota 26 25.5
66% 64 North Dakota State 31 32.1, 103 Illinois State 10 26.2
66% 40 South Florida 45 34.9, 83 Cincinnati 20 29.9
66% 30 Western Michigan 49 36.1, 73 Central Michigan 10 31.6
66% 10 Mississippi 48 38.3, 15 Memphis 28 33.4
65% 245 Stetson 31 30.1, 252 Davidson 27 23.6
65% 199 Dayton 35 24.0, 216 Drake 10 17.9
65% 198 Texas State - San Marc 48 33.4, 231 Incarnate Word 17 28.8
65% 174 San Diego 44 30.3, 217 Butler 10 24.7
65% 170 Tennessee State 34 33.7, 146 Tennessee - Martin 30 27.8
65% 123 Princeton 48 28.6, 211 Columbia 13 18.7
65% 108 Ohio 17 33.6, 162 Miami - Ohio 7 28.3
65% 9 Washington 44 27.1, 7 Stanford 6 23.5
64% 47 Brigham Young 55 27.3, 31 Toledo 53 25.9
58% 58 Air Force 28 29.0, 46 Navy 14 28.1
55% 181 Duquesne 54 27.0, 204 Jacksonville 35 26.3
55% 163 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 27.4, 139 Eastern Illinois 14 26.9
54% 131 Tulane 31 27.4, 171 Massachusetts 24 27.0
51% 168 Maine 35 21.9, 150 Bryant 31 21.8
47% 43 Washington State 51 39.2, 25 Oregon 33 39.4
46% 19 Tennessee 34 27.3, 48 Georgia 31 27.7
36% 197 Lamar 38 25.4, 188 Southeast Louisiana 14 27.0
36% 11 Clemson 42 32.3, 3 Louisville 36 34.8
35% 221 Florida International 33 23.1, 186 Florida Atlantic 31 25.9
35% 183 Eastern Michigan 28 37.9, 177 Bowling Green 25 42.0
35% 129 Northern Illinois 31 29.3, 132 Ball State 24 33.1
35% 52 California 28 38.7, 39 Utah 23 40.8
35% 33 Miami - Florida 35 26.2, 37 Georgia Tech 21 28.0
35% 8 Oklahoma 52 32.9, 13 Texas Christian 46 36.2
34% 203 Northern Colorado 21 32.7, 134 Northern Arizona 18 40.7
34% 195 Monmouth 42 27.0, 110 Fordham 41 35.7
33% 209 Kennesaw State 52 27.1, 165 Furman 42 37.1
33% 194 North Carolina Central 31 27.3, 184 Bethune - Cookman 14 33.8
32% 235 Wagner 45 17.4, 142 Sacred Heart 20 33.6
32% 127 Pennsylvania 37 17.8, 72 Dartmouth 24 33.4
32% 84 Virginia 34 26.4, 62 Duke 20 33.5
29% 173 Wyoming 38 24.8, 140 Colorado State 17 32.9
28% 122 Central Florida 47 26.1, 90 East Carolina 29 34.7
26% 155 North Dakota 31 28.9, 80 California Poly 24 35.4
25% 206 Cornell 39 19.6, 118 Colgate 38 35.2
25% 68 Northwestern 38 12.6, 22 Iowa 31 25.0
24% 190 Hawaii 38 22.5, 133 Nevada - Reno 17 32.7
24% 17 North Carolina 37 34.3, 6 Florida State 35 44.4
22% 85 Indiana 24 26.8, 29 Michigan State 21 37.7
21% 205 Tennessee Tech 33 23.3, 138 Eastern Kentucky 30 31.8
18% 241 Howard 33 17.4, 227 Norfolk State 28 27.7
16% 232 Rhode Island 28 23.6, 136 Brown 13 39.4
16% 214 New Mexico State 37 32.8, 157 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 41.4
16% 158 South Alabama 42 18.8, 54 San Diego State 24 34.6
15% 107 Charleston Southern 59 21.2, 66 Coastal Carolina 58 32.8
13% 229 Sacramento State 41 24.3, 144 Montana State 38 36.2
11% 233 Missouri State 45 18.0, 115 Indiana State 24 41.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.32 49 1.05 18 0.67 28 0.88 15 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 117 84 87.7 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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