prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 143 San Diego 52 44.1, 252 Davidson 3 7.5
94% 81 Villanova 35 38.6, 213 Rhode Island 0 9.7
94% 69 Montana 67 54.3, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 4.5
94% 52 Jacksonville State 40 45.4, 202 Tennessee Tech 21 17.0
94% 28 James Madison 31 44.3, 140 William & Mary 24 23.9
94% 15 Western Michigan 45 48.2, 133 Northern Illinois 30 23.9
94% 3 Michigan 78 42.8, 110 Rutgers 0 16.4
94% 1 Ohio State 38 54.4, 84 Indiana 17 15.4
93% 182 Dayton 51 36.6, 240 Morehead State 27 15.0
93% 12 Texas Christian 24 48.1, 190 Kansas 23 17.0
92% 141 Tennessee - Martin 45 48.8, 251 Austin Peay 31 16.7
92% 111 Fordham 58 40.3, 191 Lafayette 34 25.4
92% 35 Toledo 35 50.2, 183 Eastern Michigan 20 26.0
91% 179 North Carolina Central 17 37.7, 244 Florida A&M 13 15.6
91% 74 Sam Houston State 63 45.7, 230 Incarnate Word 48 22.1
91% 63 Harvard 29 40.4, 181 Cornell 13 15.9
91% 24 South Florida 38 44.2, 115 East Carolina 22 25.3
90% 55 North Dakota State 27 38.7, 210 Missouri State 3 12.7
90% 40 Oklahoma State 38 41.1, 89 Iowa State 31 27.4
90% 9 Clemson 56 28.1, 100 Boston College 10 12.8
89% 108 Ohio 30 42.9, 207 Bowling Green 24 25.8
89% 98 New Hampshire 13 33.9, 220 Elon 10 15.0
89% 83 Tulsa 43 41.2, 176 Southern Methodist 40 27.8
89% 61 Eastern Washington 49 57.1, 211 Northern Colorado 31 30.5
88% 122 North Carolina A&T 35 31.7, 232 Norfolk State 0 11.9
88% 62 San Diego State 26 43.1, 147 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 22.2
88% 25 Boise State 49 42.3, 134 New Mexico 21 24.8
88% 21 Memphis 34 39.4, 93 Temple 27 22.0
87% 130 Pennsylvania 28 37.8, 223 Central Connecticut 16 18.8
87% 126 Southern Utah 24 41.3, 201 California - Davis 3 23.8
87% 72 Tennessee - Chattanoog 52 35.2, 167 Mercer 31 16.4
86% 180 Monmouth 59 32.2, 237 Howard 27 21.3
85% 205 Virginia Military 37 29.7, 241 East Tennessee State 7 16.6
85% 195 Prairie View 24 37.2, 234 Alabama State 17 26.6
85% 193 Hampton 27 34.6, 245 Delaware State 17 19.1
85% 145 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 26.6, 239 Robert Morris 10 14.8
85% 42 Utah 36 32.8, 68 Arizona 23 21.0
85% 11 Texas A&M 45 33.7, 27 Tennessee 38 23.4
85% 2 Alabama 49 35.2, 36 Arkansas 30 20.3
84% 112 Western Illinois 36 38.3, 155 Indiana State 35 27.1
80% 101 Akron 35 38.1, 170 Miami - Ohio 13 25.3
79% 224 Drake 35 35.0, 248 Valparaiso 21 22.0
79% 125 North Dakota 40 31.0, 212 Sacramento State 7 21.0
78% 200 Alcorn State 42 37.3, 243 Alabama A&M 19 24.4
76% 88 Central Michigan 24 34.0, 137 Ball State 21 25.0
75% 163 Nevada - Reno 27 32.8, 184 Fresno State 22 22.6
73% 161 Georgia State 41 35.5, 199 Texas State - San Marc 21 26.4
73% 10 Oklahoma 45 40.7, 59 Texas 40 29.7
71% 90 Lehigh 45 40.4, 117 Colgate 31 32.7
69% 71 Louisiana Tech 55 37.6, 77 Western Kentucky 52 31.2
69% 5 Washington 70 40.4, 38 Oregon 21 32.3
68% 173 Lamar 38 41.4, 229 Abilene Christian 10 33.9
68% 156 Old Dominion 36 33.1, 166 Massachusetts 16 28.4
68% 97 Wake Forest 28 27.2, 113 Syracuse 9 21.3
68% 32 Kansas State 44 45.5, 31 Texas Tech 38 40.5
67% 118 Princeton 31 30.8, 198 Georgetown 17 25.5
67% 106 Samford 38 31.7, 175 Furman 21 25.9
67% 75 Duke 13 32.3, 102 Army 6 25.2
67% 20 Southern California 21 34.3, 22 Colorado 17 27.7
66% 67 Youngstown State 20 29.8, 129 Illinois State 6 24.6
66% 53 South Dakota State 45 39.3, 96 Southern Illinois 39 34.4
66% 50 Pittsburgh 37 32.8, 46 Georgia Tech 34 28.8
66% 37 Iowa 14 31.2, 86 Minnesota 7 25.8
66% 16 Auburn 38 29.0, 47 Mississippi State 14 24.6
65% 214 Gardner - Webb 24 19.4, 225 Presbyterian 3 14.4
65% 152 Eastern Kentucky 31 25.6, 165 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 22.3
65% 135 Wofford 31 27.7, 178 Western Carolina 19 23.3
64% 87 Richmond 36 28.3, 120 Albany 30 26.4
64% 45 Arizona State 23 33.7, 34 California - Los Angel 20 31.8
63% 154 Eastern Illinois 35 29.4, 158 Tennessee State 34 28.0
59% 76 Penn State 38 31.4, 65 Maryland 14 30.3
56% 219 Columbia 15 20.1, 231 Wagner 13 19.1
53% 48 North Carolina State 10 39.5, 43 Notre Dame 3 39.1
46% 104 Kentucky 20 26.1, 94 Vanderbilt 13 26.6
46% 8 Florida State 20 34.3, 19 Miami - Florida 19 34.8
42% 227 Marist 30 24.5, 228 Butler 21 25.7
42% 157 Weber State 14 33.3, 131 Portland State 10 34.0
40% 171 Kent State 44 24.5, 185 Buffalo 20 25.4
40% 124 Connecticut 20 21.9, 95 Cincinnati 9 22.8
36% 217 Florida International 35 22.2, 222 Texas - El Paso 21 23.9
35% 196 Southeast Louisiana 31 21.3, 142 McNeese State 24 25.2
34% 226 Nicholls State 35 33.9, 188 Stephen F. Austin 28 38.8
34% 192 Idaho 34 28.7, 194 Northeast Louisiana 31 33.5
34% 186 Stony Brook 27 18.4, 121 Towson 20 25.9
34% 168 Hawaii 34 29.1, 174 San Jose State 17 34.6
34% 153 Maine 28 18.7, 127 Delaware 21 25.6
34% 29 Virginia Tech 34 33.7, 18 North Carolina 3 38.9
32% 138 Arkansas State 27 26.8, 80 Georgia Southern 26 33.3
32% 119 South Dakota 28 25.3, 58 Northern Iowa 25 35.1
32% 39 Brigham Young 31 21.9, 41 Michigan State 14 28.7
31% 159 Colorado State 31 20.9, 91 Utah State 24 28.1
30% 151 Purdue 34 23.1, 114 Illinois 31 30.9
30% 26 Washington State 42 23.9, 13 Stanford 16 33.1
27% 169 Northern Arizona 20 30.6, 148 Montana State 14 37.2
20% 177 Texas - San Antonio 55 24.9, 73 Southern Mississippi 32 35.8
19% 204 Bucknell 21 19.9, 128 Holy Cross 20 30.9
18% 209 North Texas 38 25.9, 109 Marshall 21 39.0
15% 150 Wyoming 35 22.9, 49 Air Force 26 37.4
15% 123 Oregon State 47 34.3, 44 California 44 45.8
12% 189 Yale 21 16.1, 79 Dartmouth 13 35.1
12% 60 Navy 46 20.4, 6 Houston 40 34.7
10% 246 Stetson 31 17.6, 164 Brown 21 41.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.66 36 0.88 11 1.08 29 0.92 18 1.02 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 102 73 78.6 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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