prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 236 Alabama State 56 36.3, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 24 11.3
94% 67 Sam Houston State 48 61.0, 232 Abilene Christian 21 26.8
94% 65 Montana 68 46.2, 225 Sacramento State 7 13.7
94% 43 Jacksonville State 34 58.5, 249 Austin Peay 14 8.0
94% 35 Toledo 42 52.9, 214 Bowling Green 35 17.4
94% 19 Baylor 49 47.8, 176 Kansas 7 13.4
94% 18 Boise State 28 44.1, 146 Colorado State 23 14.6
94% 6 Houston 38 49.3, 80 Tulsa 31 24.3
93% 196 North Carolina Central 33 39.4, 250 Savannah State 3 14.6
93% 15 Louisiana State 45 42.8, 96 Southern Mississippi 10 18.8
92% 157 Duquesne 31 31.9, 238 Robert Morris 24 11.6
92% 76 Louisiana Tech 56 41.8, 179 Massachusetts 28 22.4
92% 33 Iowa 49 36.3, 150 Purdue 35 18.9
92% 9 Florida State 17 36.8, 86 Wake Forest 6 13.9
92% 5 Louisville 24 45.6, 77 Duke 14 21.9
91% 25 Memphis 24 42.1, 133 Tulane 14 21.6
90% 100 Fordham 44 46.1, 190 Yale 37 29.1
90% 29 South Florida 42 35.5, 119 Connecticut 27 15.9
89% 142 Pennsylvania 35 29.5, 223 Columbia 10 11.9
89% 70 Lehigh 35 38.7, 200 Georgetown 3 25.0
89% 64 Coastal Carolina 17 38.5, 205 Gardner - Webb 7 20.5
88% 215 Nicholls State 33 36.9, 251 Houston Baptist 30 22.1
88% 169 Northern Arizona 52 40.5, 226 Idaho State 7 22.9
88% 99 Samford 55 40.6, 185 Virginia Military 21 25.9
88% 66 Troy State 31 35.0, 148 Georgia State 21 18.2
88% 7 Clemson 24 36.7, 45 North Carolina State 17 20.0
87% 3 Alabama 49 38.4, 27 Tennessee 10 23.0
86% 197 Alcorn State 23 36.1, 239 Texas Southern 20 21.0
86% 175 South Carolina State 14 36.5, 243 Howard 9 21.6
86% 172 Stony Brook 14 28.4, 219 Rhode Island 3 13.5
86% 63 San Diego State 17 38.6, 182 Fresno State 3 21.7
86% 41 Georgia Tech 35 32.7, 94 Georgia Southern 24 20.1
85% 228 Butler 20 35.9, 252 Davidson 17 21.6
85% 153 Southern 28 42.4, 241 Jackson State 24 27.8
85% 21 Western Michigan 41 46.4, 90 Akron 0 32.6
84% 95 Army 62 32.9, 192 Lafayette 7 19.5
84% 1 Ohio State 30 30.7, 17 Wisconsin 23 17.0
83% 12 Oklahoma 38 39.0, 24 Kansas State 17 28.3
82% 170 Lamar 32 34.9, 212 Northwestern State 31 25.0
82% 39 Utah 19 31.3, 115 Oregon State 14 18.7
82% 28 Brigham Young 28 34.5, 69 Mississippi State 21 22.7
81% 183 Idaho 55 41.3, 211 New Mexico State 23 34.2
81% 116 Princeton 31 37.7, 188 Brown 7 25.7
81% 101 Dartmouth 20 32.1, 137 Towson 17 18.6
81% 30 Nebraska 27 37.9, 68 Indiana 22 30.3
80% 123 Ball State 31 32.6, 203 Buffalo 21 23.5
80% 81 Appalachian State 24 33.9, 158 Louisiana - Lafayette 0 22.9
79% 199 Hampton 21 31.9, 234 Morgan State 12 19.1
79% 37 James Madison 42 39.1, 113 New Hampshire 39 30.9
78% 54 Texas 27 38.7, 93 Iowa State 6 27.3
77% 151 Tennessee - Martin 38 41.1, 216 Murray State 31 31.5
77% 136 Marshall 27 41.2, 177 Florida Atlantic 21 29.0
77% 108 North Carolina A&T 52 30.9, 204 Bethune - Cookman 35 21.4
76% 194 Furman 52 24.0, 242 East Tennessee State 7 13.6
75% 130 San Diego 38 32.2, 220 Drake 7 21.1
75% 121 Western Illinois 38 33.3, 208 Missouri State 35 22.2
73% 221 Marist 44 30.3, 240 Morehead State 41 21.5
71% 109 Liberty 36 44.0, 202 Kennesaw State 21 32.7
68% 165 Mercer 38 37.4, 181 Western Carolina 24 29.7
68% 78 California Poly 55 37.8, 139 Portland State 35 30.9
68% 13 Washington State 27 32.8, 34 California - Los Angel 21 25.2
67% 159 Eastern Illinois 30 32.0, 187 Tennessee Tech 24 28.1
67% 128 William & Mary 24 25.8, 132 Delaware 17 19.3
67% 38 Florida 40 23.7, 49 Missouri 14 15.6
67% 23 Southern California 48 32.7, 60 Arizona 14 27.9
67% 20 Colorado 40 38.2, 40 Arizona State 16 31.6
66% 193 Northeast Louisiana 40 37.0, 210 Texas State - San Marc 34 31.3
66% 102 Colgate 27 28.0, 195 Bucknell 7 22.0
66% 61 Youngstown State 14 26.2, 74 Northern Iowa 10 20.3
65% 217 Florida International 27 31.1, 230 North Carolina - Charl 26 27.7
65% 178 Dayton 36 27.7, 213 Jacksonville 16 24.1
65% 167 Weber State 45 30.5, 171 Montana State 27 27.7
65% 156 Tennessee State 35 31.6, 138 Eastern Kentucky 28 25.9
65% 134 Texas - San Antonio 14 29.8, 189 Rice 13 25.2
65% 114 North Dakota 45 27.9, 124 Southern Utah 23 23.9
65% 91 Central Michigan 34 33.8, 120 Northern Illinois 28 31.3
65% 51 Pittsburgh 45 35.3, 82 Virginia 31 32.0
64% 209 California - Davis 34 35.2, 206 Northern Colorado 21 33.2
64% 186 Southeast Louisiana 58 32.2, 201 Stephen F. Austin 34 30.3
64% 162 Saint Francis - Pennsy 38 29.1, 164 Bryant 3 27.7
64% 126 Illinois 24 26.8, 166 Rutgers 7 24.6
61% 107 South Dakota 33 40.7, 161 Indiana State 30 39.2
59% 143 Sacred Heart 31 26.8, 154 Cornell 24 26.0
58% 152 Illinois State 31 30.3, 104 Southern Illinois 28 29.6
56% 87 Richmond 23 26.5, 83 Villanova 0 25.9
53% 31 Stanford 17 28.1, 52 Notre Dame 10 27.8
49% 141 Arkansas State 17 30.4, 110 South Alabama 7 30.5
43% 140 Maine 20 23.1, 111 Albany 16 24.0
41% 135 Central Arkansas 35 26.8, 160 McNeese State 0 27.8
39% 246 Alabama A&M 40 32.4, 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 33.5
37% 84 Temple 26 28.7, 89 Central Florida 25 30.1
37% 26 West Virginia 48 43.8, 32 Texas Tech 17 45.2
36% 244 Florida A&M 41 24.3, 245 Delaware State 27 25.7
36% 75 Western Kentucky 44 36.8, 92 Middle Tennessee State 43 38.8
35% 198 San Jose State 14 24.0, 173 Nevada - Reno 10 27.0
35% 184 Miami - Ohio 18 22.5, 145 Kent State 14 24.8
35% 147 Nevada - Las Vegas 41 32.3, 155 Hawaii 38 35.6
35% 112 The Citadel 22 26.2, 71 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 29.9
35% 85 Minnesota 31 25.3, 73 Maryland 10 31.0
35% 48 South Dakota State 19 28.1, 58 North Dakota State 17 31.2
35% 36 Arkansas 34 32.3, 8 Mississippi 30 35.7
34% 227 Wagner 25 21.6, 224 Central Connecticut 21 28.2
34% 56 Northwestern 54 16.4, 59 Michigan State 40 22.1
30% 229 Presbyterian 17 16.9, 163 Monmouth 13 26.2
23% 149 Holy Cross 27 27.1, 72 Harvard 17 37.2
21% 42 North Carolina 20 26.5, 16 Miami - Florida 13 37.6
19% 144 New Mexico 45 26.5, 57 Air Force 40 40.7
17% 247 Valparaiso 21 22.9, 235 Stetson 18 34.8
17% 97 Vanderbilt 17 16.1, 47 Georgia 16 29.2
13% 127 Syracuse 31 23.2, 14 Virginia Tech 17 43.6
11% 174 Eastern Michigan 27 28.0, 118 Ohio 20 41.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.02 38 0.97 16 1.06 32 0.99 18 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 86 84.9 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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