prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 170 Southeast Louisiana 37 41.5, 249 Houston Baptist 3 13.0
94% 135 Grambling 59 50.7, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 10 13.8
94% 110 San Diego 49 46.5, 246 Valparaiso 10 9.9
94% 100 North Carolina A&T 34 44.8, 244 Howard 7 17.4
94% 77 Coastal Carolina 33 44.7, 226 Central Connecticut 25 16.2
94% 58 California Poly 21 47.9, 200 California - Davis 16 20.2
94% 35 Oklahoma State 44 44.0, 181 Kansas 20 21.2
94% 26 Nebraska 27 44.2, 154 Purdue 14 18.5
94% 9 Western Michigan 45 52.0, 162 Eastern Michigan 31 18.9
94% 4 Washington 41 45.5, 113 Oregon State 17 13.4
94% 3 Michigan 41 46.2, 117 Illinois 8 9.4
93% 155 Southern 49 53.0, 251 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 23.2
93% 94 North Dakota 28 42.8, 239 Idaho State 21 19.3
93% 92 Georgia Southern 22 46.6, 213 New Mexico State 19 24.5
93% 85 Sam Houston State 38 50.1, 224 Nicholls State 21 26.7
93% 81 Tennessee - Chattanoog 30 39.0, 195 Virginia Military 13 16.8
93% 78 Appalachian State 37 38.5, 169 Idaho 19 17.6
93% 57 Louisiana Tech 44 43.8, 218 Florida International 24 20.0
92% 173 South Carolina State 30 40.3, 247 Delaware State 3 13.8
92% 133 Sacred Heart 16 30.6, 228 Robert Morris 10 10.0
92% 87 South Carolina 34 35.0, 179 Massachusetts 28 14.3
91% 103 Utah State 38 35.7, 191 Fresno State 20 18.6
91% 76 Western Kentucky 59 45.0, 138 Old Dominion 24 30.1
91% 2 Alabama 33 39.3, 10 Texas A&M 14 19.9
90% 220 Marist 31 34.3, 250 Davidson 10 13.8
90% 126 Northern Illinois 44 39.2, 202 Buffalo 7 24.6
90% 122 Fordham 17 40.9, 208 Georgetown 14 24.5
90% 75 San Diego State 42 37.5, 199 San Jose State 3 15.2
90% 72 Charleston Southern 38 40.1, 225 Presbyterian 3 15.8
90% 70 Northern Iowa 61 34.3, 180 Missouri State 7 10.8
90% 68 Minnesota 34 34.8, 177 Rutgers 32 14.5
89% 166 Mercer 41 41.3, 245 Austin Peay 34 22.3
89% 83 Samford 30 47.0, 192 Western Carolina 17 27.3
89% 80 Richmond 35 33.4, 212 Elon 7 16.4
87% 56 Eastern Washington 41 47.9, 183 Montana State 17 36.1
87% 5 Louisville 54 42.2, 44 North Carolina State 13 24.0
86% 168 Dayton 31 33.1, 231 Butler 16 21.0
86% 40 Toledo 31 41.9, 93 Central Michigan 17 26.8
85% 151 Maine 28 29.0, 217 Rhode Island 21 19.3
85% 102 Central Arkansas 22 34.4, 172 Lamar 12 21.1
84% 66 Tulsa 50 40.7, 131 Tulane 27 29.0
83% 34 Northwestern 24 33.3, 67 Indiana 14 23.7
82% 120 Liberty 52 33.1, 164 Monmouth 28 23.5
80% 175 Bryant 27 33.9, 215 Wagner 17 21.6
78% 15 Auburn 56 32.5, 33 Arkansas 3 23.2
76% 132 New Mexico 59 41.1, 187 Northeast Louisiana 17 29.5
76% 29 North Carolina 35 36.3, 88 Virginia 14 27.7
74% 198 Northern Colorado 27 37.0, 234 Sacramento State 19 26.5
73% 54 Lehigh 46 41.6, 139 Holy Cross 14 33.7
71% 14 Oklahoma 66 52.7, 50 Texas Tech 59 44.7
69% 30 Boise State 28 33.6, 38 Brigham Young 27 26.5
69% 28 Kansas State 24 35.1, 49 Texas 21 26.2
68% 129 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 32.9, 165 Duquesne 10 26.9
68% 95 Villanova 24 25.7, 104 Albany 13 16.9
68% 63 Jacksonville State 24 35.7, 141 Eastern Kentucky 7 26.0
68% 61 North Dakota State 21 29.4, 123 Western Illinois 13 22.5
67% 149 Pennsylvania 42 34.1, 189 Yale 7 28.3
67% 105 Cincinnati 31 33.3, 109 East Carolina 19 28.4
66% 223 Jacksonville 61 36.6, 240 Morehead State 49 31.3
66% 203 Bucknell 42 23.4, 196 Lafayette 17 18.7
66% 185 North Carolina Central 21 28.7, 236 Morgan State 17 23.1
66% 98 New Hampshire 21 31.3, 128 Towson 7 26.2
66% 48 California 52 53.2, 52 Oregon 49 49.2
66% 19 West Virginia 34 33.4, 21 Texas Christian 10 29.5
66% 18 Washington State 37 38.0, 46 Arizona State 32 33.2
66% 13 Louisiana State 38 32.2, 8 Mississippi 21 28.0
65% 182 Louisiana - Lafayette 27 35.8, 205 Texas State - San Marc 3 32.8
65% 124 Colorado State 42 32.4, 147 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 30.3
65% 107 South Dakota 27 34.1, 146 Illinois State 24 30.0
65% 97 Harvard 23 30.9, 118 Princeton 20 27.9
65% 91 Vanderbilt 35 26.2, 142 Tennessee State 17 20.9
65% 64 Troy State 28 30.1, 115 South Alabama 21 25.6
65% 47 South Dakota State 24 30.6, 62 Youngstown State 10 27.3
65% 23 Virginia Tech 37 27.5, 22 Miami - Florida 16 24.5
65% 11 Wisconsin 17 24.6, 39 Iowa 9 21.3
64% 207 Bethune - Cookman 21 25.8, 229 Norfolk State 14 24.0
64% 197 McNeese State 48 27.5, 206 Northwestern State 27 25.9
64% 171 Miami - Ohio 40 29.9, 211 Bowling Green 26 27.8
61% 89 Maryland 28 28.2, 71 Michigan State 17 27.0
58% 111 The Citadel 24 24.0, 137 Wofford 21 23.2
53% 90 Central Florida 24 24.7, 121 Connecticut 16 24.3
42% 143 Ohio 14 23.9, 145 Kent State 10 24.7
40% 237 Abilene Christian 52 35.9, 221 Incarnate Word 27 37.2
40% 16 Colorado 10 22.5, 31 Stanford 5 23.7
36% 210 Brown 28 27.8, 161 Cornell 21 29.7
36% 190 Tennessee Tech 21 23.4, 174 Southeast Missouri Sta 20 24.9
36% 186 Rice 65 30.7, 201 Prairie View 44 32.8
36% 144 Georgia State 31 29.1, 159 Tennessee - Martin 6 31.1
36% 130 Wyoming 42 24.6, 178 Nevada - Reno 34 26.1
35% 194 Kennesaw State 47 30.1, 193 Gardner - Webb 39 33.6
35% 114 Akron 35 31.4, 125 Ball State 25 35.1
35% 99 Kentucky 40 28.4, 69 Mississippi State 38 31.8
35% 51 Navy 42 29.5, 25 Memphis 28 33.5
35% 42 Utah 52 19.5, 37 California - Los Angel 45 22.6
34% 238 Stetson 30 20.5, 233 Campbell 24 26.5
33% 243 Jackson State 21 20.8, 235 Texas Southern 13 27.4
33% 156 Weber State 37 25.9, 134 Southern Utah 36 31.5
33% 108 Syracuse 28 21.8, 119 Boston College 20 28.3
33% 86 Middle Tennessee State 51 27.8, 59 Missouri 45 36.3
32% 176 Stony Brook 28 14.4, 136 Delaware 3 23.0
32% 82 Temple 46 28.4, 24 South Florida 30 36.8
22% 160 Indiana State 22 32.4, 116 Southern Illinois 14 42.3
14% 241 Florida A&M 31 16.4, 204 Hampton 14 27.6
14% 152 Northern Arizona 45 24.0, 45 Montana 34 37.0
12% 219 Columbia 9 6.4, 106 Dartmouth 7 25.2
11% 227 Texas - El Paso 52 15.7, 140 Texas - San Antonio 49 35.1
10% 163 Hawaii 34 23.5, 65 Air Force 27 42.2
9% 184 North Texas 35 15.2, 74 Army 18 34.8
8% 230 North Carolina - Charl 27 26.9, 148 Marshall 24 50.2
8% 214 Murray State 40 24.3, 153 Eastern Illinois 38 40.5
7% 53 Penn State 24 17.7, 1 Ohio State 21 42.0
6% 158 Southern Methodist 38 16.4, 7 Houston 16 45.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.18 48 0.92 8 1.16 21 0.93 32 0.88 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 81 87.2 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net