prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 188 North Carolina Central 38 36.0, 250 Delaware State 19 16.9
94% 163 Dayton 37 39.3, 247 Valparaiso 21 11.0
94% 158 Southern 26 43.9, 243 Texas Southern 10 22.7
94% 107 Harvard 28 32.0, 220 Columbia 21 7.9
94% 95 Grambling 56 47.6, 242 Alabama A&M 17 21.0
94% 75 Montana 62 52.9, 234 Idaho State 44 15.5
94% 74 Appalachian State 35 44.7, 223 Texas State - San Marc 10 13.6
94% 70 South Dakota State 49 45.3, 182 Missouri State 24 20.9
94% 39 Western Kentucky 49 50.2, 210 Florida International 21 18.4
94% 36 Boise State 45 43.6, 195 San Jose State 31 12.8
94% 34 Lehigh 20 45.0, 189 Bucknell 13 16.4
94% 32 Tennessee 55 45.5, 187 Tennessee Tech 0 19.0
94% 16 West Virginia 48 45.2, 198 Kansas 21 6.9
94% 7 Clemson 54 47.3, 114 Syracuse 0 17.2
94% 6 Auburn 23 34.4, 85 Vanderbilt 16 9.1
94% 2 Michigan 59 46.9, 78 Maryland 3 14.9
93% 59 Minnesota 44 39.3, 154 Purdue 31 19.4
93% 18 Western Michigan 52 41.1, 138 Ball State 20 22.5
93% 3 Ohio State 62 39.2, 31 Nebraska 3 15.8
92% 172 Mercer 21 38.4, 248 East Tennessee State 13 15.6
92% 124 Ohio 34 34.1, 201 Buffalo 10 17.3
92% 84 Coastal Carolina 38 43.8, 191 Monmouth 17 23.7
92% 54 San Diego State 55 38.7, 147 Hawaii 0 19.5
92% 20 Mississippi 37 43.6, 129 Georgia Southern 27 20.9
92% 5 Louisville 52 39.2, 115 Boston College 7 16.6
91% 117 Northern Illinois 45 44.4, 204 Bowling Green 20 26.6
91% 101 Liberty 16 33.0, 235 Presbyterian 0 14.1
91% 68 Sam Houston State 56 46.6, 185 McNeese State 43 25.8
91% 64 Troy State 52 40.2, 164 Massachusetts 31 20.8
90% 146 Towson 23 29.1, 219 Elon 6 12.0
90% 58 Central Florida 37 38.0, 135 Tulane 6 20.8
90% 57 Jacksonville State 17 33.4, 177 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 16.4
90% 35 Stanford 26 29.4, 91 Oregon State 15 11.3
90% 17 Washington State 69 42.3, 92 Arizona 7 25.6
89% 155 Tennessee State 41 42.9, 237 Austin Peay 40 24.3
89% 89 Central Arkansas 34 42.6, 199 Stephen F. Austin 14 26.9
89% 14 Southern California 45 44.5, 51 Oregon 20 29.8
89% 4 Washington 66 51.7, 53 California 27 33.8
88% 116 Colorado State 37 35.1, 179 Fresno State 0 22.5
87% 239 Campbell 28 32.6, 251 Davidson 0 18.4
87% 63 Indiana 33 36.3, 168 Rutgers 27 25.2
87% 46 Louisiana Tech 45 39.5, 144 North Texas 24 26.7
87% 33 Brigham Young 20 33.8, 128 Cincinnati 3 21.5
86% 11 Oklahoma 34 42.3, 82 Iowa State 24 29.1
85% 113 North Carolina A&T 30 30.5, 175 South Carolina State 20 17.3
85% 112 North Dakota 23 36.0, 173 Northern Colorado 13 25.4
85% 50 Temple 21 27.4, 152 Connecticut 0 16.1
84% 45 Tulsa 45 44.6, 104 East Carolina 24 34.6
84% 13 Virginia Tech 24 31.7, 61 Duke 21 21.9
83% 186 Bryant 24 27.3, 227 Robert Morris 13 15.8
81% 80 Princeton 28 33.9, 148 Pennsylvania 0 23.7
80% 137 Dartmouth 17 28.2, 190 Cornell 13 18.1
79% 24 North Carolina 48 35.4, 47 Georgia Tech 20 27.7
78% 143 Southern Utah 38 34.4, 183 Montana State 21 25.7
78% 60 Memphis 51 36.6, 111 Southern Methodist 7 27.1
77% 55 Northern Iowa 39 30.2, 140 Indiana State 6 20.3
77% 29 Miami - Florida 51 35.4, 38 Pittsburgh 28 27.8
77% 19 James Madison 47 42.5, 72 Richmond 43 34.3
77% 1 Alabama 10 29.4, 8 Louisiana State 0 19.3
76% 176 Southeast Louisiana 30 36.6, 244 Incarnate Word 10 25.7
76% 66 Toledo 48 43.3, 126 Akron 17 33.4
76% 12 Colorado 20 31.6, 44 California - Los Angel 10 22.7
71% 106 New Mexico 35 36.0, 169 Nevada - Reno 26 26.7
68% 232 Alabama State 14 28.0, 240 Jackson State 7 21.6
68% 216 Texas - El Paso 42 31.9, 246 Houston Baptist 10 22.7
68% 15 Florida State 24 33.8, 73 North Carolina State 20 26.9
67% 209 Bethune - Cookman 41 29.0, 238 Morgan State 10 24.3
67% 205 Brown 27 32.5, 208 Yale 22 27.1
67% 159 Duquesne 28 32.7, 213 Wagner 20 25.1
67% 65 North Dakota State 24 20.2, 87 Youngstown State 3 14.0
67% 23 Penn State 41 31.6, 41 Iowa 14 26.2
66% 150 Old Dominion 38 36.1, 170 Marshall 14 31.9
66% 100 Villanova 26 24.6, 132 Maine 7 19.8
65% 224 Abilene Christian 25 36.3, 229 Northwestern State 22 34.2
65% 202 Prairie View 31 34.0, 211 Alcorn State 27 32.0
65% 197 Western Carolina 32 31.1, 203 Virginia Military 29 28.2
65% 141 Southern Illinois 35 40.4, 118 South Dakota 28 37.9
65% 108 The Citadel 37 35.3, 98 Samford 34 32.1
65% 99 Wyoming 52 29.6, 121 Utah State 28 26.7
65% 94 South Carolina 31 27.6, 86 Missouri 21 24.4
65% 90 Wake Forest 27 21.6, 96 Virginia 20 17.9
65% 9 Wisconsin 21 21.0, 22 Northwestern 7 17.5
64% 161 Holy Cross 21 24.0, 200 Georgetown 20 21.8
64% 133 William & Mary 14 20.1, 167 Stony Brook 9 18.5
64% 42 Eastern Washington 42 45.8, 88 California Poly 21 44.1
62% 139 Wofford 34 22.4, 157 Furman 27 21.2
61% 125 Arkansas State 31 25.1, 142 Georgia State 16 24.2
60% 166 Portland State 51 32.2, 184 California - Davis 29 31.2
54% 76 Georgia 27 30.3, 79 Kentucky 24 29.9
38% 228 Marist 45 21.2, 226 Stetson 38 22.6
36% 221 Drake 31 31.5, 218 Jacksonville 27 34.0
36% 207 Nicholls State 35 25.8, 192 Lamar 10 27.9
36% 149 Tennessee - Martin 33 31.6, 165 Eastern Illinois 17 33.2
36% 134 Fordham 24 35.6, 102 Colgate 20 37.7
36% 131 Illinois State 31 25.3, 122 Western Illinois 26 27.1
36% 127 Northern Arizona 33 29.4, 136 Weber State 20 30.5
36% 93 Air Force 31 25.6, 83 Army 12 27.0
36% 52 Arkansas 31 23.4, 25 Florida 10 25.0
36% 37 Texas 45 43.7, 48 Texas Tech 37 45.6
35% 56 Navy 28 31.0, 49 Notre Dame 27 33.3
33% 214 Florida Atlantic 42 25.4, 193 Rice 25 31.5
33% 174 Idaho 23 27.5, 181 Louisiana - Lafayette 13 32.8
33% 156 Miami - Ohio 37 22.3, 105 Central Michigan 17 27.8
33% 119 Illinois 31 21.6, 62 Michigan State 27 27.9
33% 27 Oklahoma State 43 29.8, 30 Kansas State 37 34.2
32% 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 41 25.4, 252 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 32.8
32% 249 Savannah State 31 16.5, 236 Norfolk State 14 25.4
30% 212 Central Connecticut 37 21.0, 160 Sacred Heart 35 28.2
24% 241 Morehead State 54 30.0, 233 Butler 28 37.9
24% 43 Texas Christian 62 26.9, 21 Baylor 22 35.2
20% 194 Murray State 41 25.1, 180 Eastern Kentucky 28 34.0
17% 162 Delaware 33 16.7, 109 Albany 17 26.6
13% 69 Mississippi State 35 23.7, 10 Texas A&M 28 35.8
12% 217 Northeast Louisiana 42 20.0, 110 South Alabama 35 35.8
12% 151 Texas - San Antonio 45 28.1, 71 Middle Tennessee State 25 44.0
10% 178 Gardner - Webb 17 20.0, 77 Charleston Southern 10 40.2
7% 222 North Carolina - Charl 38 22.7, 120 Southern Mississippi 27 45.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.85 43 0.89 15 0.96 25 0.97 33 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 117 89 92.3 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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