prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 186 North Carolina Central 30 38.2, 246 Howard 21 17.1
94% 111 Arkansas State 41 44.3, 207 New Mexico State 22 23.0
94% 106 North Carolina A&T 45 45.5, 250 Delaware State 14 13.9
94% 105 San Diego 42 40.4, 228 Stetson 7 12.7
94% 87 Coastal Carolina 31 42.1, 189 Bryant 21 23.2
94% 86 Central Arkansas 31 38.4, 188 Nicholls State 24 15.0
94% 85 Grambling 21 45.5, 235 Alabama State 0 17.8
94% 70 Sam Houston State 48 50.9, 233 Northwestern State 16 26.0
94% 48 North Dakota State 41 34.8, 155 Indiana State 17 11.4
94% 28 Eastern Washington 48 62.7, 223 Idaho State 17 22.8
94% 25 Houston 30 42.6, 147 Tulane 18 16.1
94% 15 Florida State 45 37.3, 125 Boston College 7 12.3
94% 14 Western Michigan 37 39.4, 139 Kent State 21 17.2
94% 9 Wisconsin 48 34.7, 109 Illinois 3 7.5
94% 5 Louisville 44 41.8, 90 Wake Forest 12 12.3
94% 2 Ohio State 62 44.5, 89 Maryland 3 14.8
94% 1 Alabama 51 46.2, 58 Mississippi State 3 11.9
93% 239 Texas Southern 27 37.0, 253 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 15.2
93% 214 Alcorn State 61 40.3, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 18.5
93% 101 Colgate 38 39.6, 193 Lafayette 17 19.0
93% 43 Western Kentucky 45 44.4, 142 North Texas 7 24.1
92% 68 Jacksonville State 33 40.3, 175 Murray State 15 22.7
92% 46 Boise State 52 40.3, 168 Hawaii 16 22.2
91% 216 Hampton 28 31.4, 249 Savannah State 24 13.8
91% 69 Princeton 31 42.0, 213 Yale 3 22.7
90% 127 Saint Francis - Pennsy 31 33.6, 209 Central Connecticut 21 17.3
90% 124 Illinois State 37 35.9, 182 Missouri State 0 18.8
90% 77 Michigan State 49 36.4, 157 Rutgers 0 19.5
90% 47 Louisiana Tech 63 45.0, 123 Texas - San Antonio 35 27.6
90% 38 San Diego State 46 32.1, 166 Nevada - Reno 16 13.8
90% 27 Northwestern 45 38.6, 152 Purdue 17 20.3
90% 8 Washington State 56 54.9, 65 California 21 36.0
89% 103 The Citadel 30 34.8, 202 Virginia Military 20 21.3
89% 100 Samford 24 44.7, 180 Mercer 19 29.5
89% 73 Richmond 31 33.6, 135 Delaware 17 20.8
89% 31 California - Los Angel 38 32.8, 79 Oregon State 24 18.9
89% 30 Tennessee 49 41.0, 83 Kentucky 36 27.2
89% 29 Brigham Young 37 38.6, 134 Southern Utah 7 19.4
89% 22 Oklahoma State 45 53.0, 54 Texas Tech 44 41.7
89% 10 Colorado 49 39.7, 117 Arizona 24 21.1
88% 172 Southeast Louisiana 31 40.0, 226 Abilene Christian 19 24.1
88% 78 Iowa State 31 34.5, 185 Kansas 24 19.7
88% 53 Central Florida 24 33.4, 137 Cincinnati 3 18.9
88% 51 Toledo 31 42.2, 120 Northern Illinois 24 28.7
88% 24 Miami - Florida 34 33.0, 91 Virginia 14 22.3
87% 40 Florida 20 26.1, 88 South Carolina 7 11.0
87% 11 Oklahoma 45 43.3, 35 Baylor 24 33.3
86% 221 Drake 28 33.9, 242 Butler 14 22.1
86% 151 Kennesaw State 45 39.0, 237 Presbyterian 10 22.2
86% 102 Youngstown State 21 29.5, 136 Southern Illinois 14 17.9
86% 67 South Dakota State 28 45.9, 118 South Dakota 21 32.7
86% 52 Northern Iowa 30 31.7, 133 Western Illinois 23 20.9
85% 17 Penn State 45 38.4, 75 Indiana 31 28.4
80% 150 Furman 49 35.4, 194 Western Carolina 21 25.2
79% 72 Air Force 49 30.8, 99 Colorado State 46 22.1
79% 55 Notre Dame 44 31.8, 104 Army 6 22.5
76% 159 Idaho 47 37.0, 227 Texas State - San Marc 14 27.8
75% 50 Nebraska 24 30.8, 63 Minnesota 17 22.5
74% 132 Miami - Ohio 35 27.9, 212 Buffalo 24 19.0
71% 66 North Carolina State 35 32.5, 122 Syracuse 20 24.6
71% 20 James Madison 20 36.2, 84 Villanova 7 28.5
70% 198 Eastern Kentucky 67 35.1, 229 Austin Peay 30 26.4
69% 232 Florida A&M 22 29.5, 248 Morgan State 21 21.7
69% 165 Dayton 59 27.4, 219 Marist 31 19.8
68% 203 Florida Atlantic 35 32.9, 211 Texas - El Paso 31 25.3
68% 140 Tennessee - Martin 24 28.2, 174 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 21.4
67% 164 Duquesne 31 31.2, 169 Sacred Heart 10 26.0
67% 131 Old Dominion 51 34.4, 149 Southern Mississippi 35 29.1
67% 13 Louisiana State 38 26.9, 41 Arkansas 10 21.7
66% 192 Montana State 27 31.5, 190 California - Davis 13 25.7
66% 160 Southern 44 39.6, 204 Prairie View 34 35.9
66% 128 Fordham 54 35.7, 158 Holy Cross 14 32.1
66% 59 Troy State 28 28.5, 82 Appalachian State 24 23.9
65% 107 North Dakota 38 27.4, 113 Northern Arizona 31 23.0
65% 56 Navy 42 40.5, 37 Tulsa 40 37.2
65% 36 Stanford 52 30.2, 64 Oregon 27 27.9
62% 34 Utah 49 31.7, 60 Arizona State 26 30.5
61% 18 West Virginia 24 29.8, 33 Texas 20 28.8
53% 187 Cornell 42 21.7, 215 Columbia 40 21.5
48% 153 Towson 34 22.9, 126 William & Mary 24 23.1
48% 94 Missouri 26 24.6, 71 Vanderbilt 17 24.8
43% 97 New Mexico 24 33.4, 130 Utah State 21 34.1
39% 218 Wagner 40 19.3, 231 Robert Morris 5 20.4
36% 236 Campbell 27 32.2, 234 Morehead State 21 33.9
36% 181 Bucknell 21 15.4, 199 Georgetown 7 17.3
35% 210 Rice 22 30.9, 197 North Carolina - Charl 21 33.5
35% 170 Pennsylvania 27 23.1, 114 Harvard 14 25.8
35% 148 Maine 27 17.8, 162 Stony Brook 21 20.6
35% 95 Charleston Southern 48 32.4, 96 Liberty 26 36.4
35% 45 South Florida 49 37.4, 42 Memphis 42 41.3
33% 244 Valparaiso 42 28.6, 224 Jacksonville 39 34.7
33% 230 Rhode Island 44 16.8, 222 Elon 14 22.4
33% 143 Eastern Michigan 48 27.6, 144 Ball State 41 32.5
33% 121 Southern Methodist 55 28.0, 108 East Carolina 31 33.4
32% 241 Alabama A&M 27 22.9, 240 Jackson State 20 29.4
32% 178 Marshall 42 33.8, 93 Middle Tennessee State 17 41.6
32% 23 Mississippi 29 32.2, 16 Texas A&M 28 38.9
30% 62 Duke 28 24.4, 21 North Carolina 27 31.9
29% 154 Weber State 22 29.6, 98 California Poly 15 36.5
26% 163 Nevada - Las Vegas 69 31.9, 81 Wyoming 66 40.9
21% 195 Tennessee Tech 44 26.6, 161 Tennessee State 16 36.5
19% 129 Wofford 36 17.4, 92 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 27.6
16% 245 Houston Baptist 31 27.3, 200 Stephen F. Austin 24 39.1
14% 225 Sacramento State 42 29.1, 146 Portland State 35 39.8
14% 119 Albany 36 19.6, 80 New Hampshire 25 30.5
14% 12 Southern California 26 22.6, 4 Washington 13 36.6
13% 243 Incarnate Word 35 20.3, 208 Lamar 28 35.9
12% 76 Georgia 13 18.1, 6 Auburn 7 33.5
11% 220 Bowling Green 38 28.5, 141 Akron 28 44.7
11% 206 Northeast Louisiana 37 19.8, 145 Georgia State 23 34.2
11% 184 Louisiana - Lafayette 33 15.9, 112 Georgia Southern 26 33.0
11% 61 Georgia Tech 30 21.9, 19 Virginia Tech 20 36.1
10% 238 Norfolk State 13 10.5, 176 South Carolina State 10 28.9
10% 217 Brown 24 11.3, 138 Dartmouth 21 28.9
10% 173 Northern Colorado 28 27.4, 74 Montana 25 44.3
8% 57 Iowa 14 17.1, 3 Michigan 13 40.2
8% 44 Pittsburgh 43 24.6, 7 Clemson 42 43.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.47 32 0.81 11 0.86 39 0.79 31 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 117 79 94.4 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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