prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 207 Prairie View 57 44.6, 253 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 20.2
94% 158 Southern 55 54.8, 251 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 16.9
94% 93 San Diego 57 36.3, 234 Campbell 21 12.2
94% 85 Grambling 47 40.5, 240 Texas Southern 28 13.8
94% 75 Appalachian State 42 42.1, 194 Northeast Louisiana 17 15.9
94% 64 Georgia 35 35.4, 169 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 11.7
94% 59 Toledo 37 43.3, 151 Ball State 19 22.1
94% 32 Boise State 42 50.7, 153 Nevada - Las Vegas 25 23.0
94% 29 Brigham Young 51 44.5, 156 Massachusetts 9 15.1
94% 19 Texas A&M 23 45.3, 129 Texas - San Antonio 10 17.9
94% 17 James Madison 63 54.4, 238 Elon 14 8.5
94% 16 Western Michigan 38 53.2, 216 Buffalo 0 12.1
94% 9 Wisconsin 49 42.9, 154 Purdue 20 13.2
94% 8 Auburn 55 56.8, 237 Alabama A&M 0 7.5
94% 3 Michigan 20 49.9, 80 Indiana 10 15.4
94% 2 Alabama 31 47.4, 102 Tennessee - Chattanoog 3 8.4
94% 1 Ohio State 17 43.7, 63 Michigan State 16 15.9
93% 77 Kentucky 49 53.4, 232 Austin Peay 13 24.2
93% 14 Penn State 39 44.7, 188 Rutgers 0 17.5
93% 6 Clemson 35 31.7, 90 Wake Forest 13 11.0
93% 5 Washington 44 47.7, 74 Arizona State 18 21.9
92% 96 Colgate 38 30.9, 215 Georgetown 10 11.5
92% 91 South Carolina 44 37.7, 212 Western Carolina 31 15.8
92% 55 Lehigh 45 44.6, 192 Lafayette 21 24.0
92% 38 Eastern Washington 35 52.0, 155 Portland State 28 34.2
92% 15 Florida State 45 43.8, 121 Syracuse 14 24.7
91% 191 South Carolina State 32 31.8, 242 Savannah State 0 12.3
91% 112 Wofford 17 34.0, 205 Virginia Military 0 16.1
91% 99 Youngstown State 65 31.1, 202 Missouri State 20 12.8
90% 198 Alcorn State 35 33.3, 246 Jackson State 16 16.8
90% 104 California Poly 55 41.0, 164 Northern Colorado 48 26.2
89% 143 Weber State 34 39.2, 224 Idaho State 28 24.5
89% 126 South Alabama 31 30.4, 244 Presbyterian 7 10.7
89% 120 Army 60 36.5, 247 Morgan State 3 14.6
89% 68 Jacksonville State 33 34.6, 140 Tennessee - Martin 7 19.1
88% 111 Old Dominion 42 37.3, 208 Florida Atlantic 24 24.8
88% 62 Princeton 38 29.0, 163 Dartmouth 21 13.8
88% 50 Nebraska 28 33.3, 98 Maryland 7 19.7
88% 46 Temple 31 32.1, 134 Tulane 0 18.8
88% 25 North Carolina 41 38.0, 100 The Citadel 7 23.1
87% 167 McNeese State 41 32.3, 222 Lamar 10 19.9
87% 148 Towson 32 32.3, 221 Rhode Island 31 20.9
87% 76 Air Force 41 34.7, 187 San Jose State 38 22.4
87% 51 Georgia Tech 31 35.4, 94 Virginia 17 23.4
87% 47 North Dakota State 28 33.2, 118 South Dakota 21 21.6
87% 45 Iowa 28 29.6, 127 Illinois 0 17.7
86% 229 Morehead State 31 37.7, 252 Davidson 10 27.0
86% 110 Middle Tennessee State 38 43.4, 200 North Carolina - Charl 31 31.0
86% 30 Tennessee 63 43.2, 88 Missouri 37 28.8
85% 48 Memphis 34 33.1, 146 Cincinnati 7 21.6
81% 195 Bethune - Cookman 39 31.5, 228 Florida A&M 19 22.2
81% 78 Charleston Southern 28 49.6, 139 Kennesaw State 7 37.6
79% 95 Coastal Carolina 42 36.5, 117 Liberty 7 28.0
78% 210 Stephen F. Austin 45 36.4, 233 Northwestern State 31 28.8
78% 57 Navy 66 37.6, 122 East Carolina 31 29.1
77% 243 Howard 26 34.6, 250 Delaware State 21 26.6
77% 135 Boston College 30 20.2, 172 Connecticut 0 10.8
77% 106 Albany 13 24.8, 166 Stony Brook 6 14.9
77% 26 Stanford 45 36.8, 69 California 31 28.4
76% 79 Oregon State 42 35.9, 114 Arizona 17 27.8
76% 67 Sam Houston State 59 40.8, 86 Central Arkansas 23 32.3
75% 196 California - Davis 48 35.5, 218 Sacramento State 30 26.3
74% 43 South Florida 35 43.4, 101 Southern Methodist 27 33.5
72% 209 New Mexico State 50 39.7, 230 Texas State - San Marc 10 32.5
72% 152 Pennsylvania 42 30.5, 185 Cornell 20 23.4
72% 150 Duquesne 52 32.2, 204 Central Connecticut 19 24.6
72% 35 Pittsburgh 56 37.8, 61 Duke 14 29.7
72% 10 Southern California 36 29.1, 40 California - Los Angel 14 21.2
67% 159 Tennessee Tech 55 35.1, 181 Murray State 19 29.0
67% 103 Fordham 36 31.4, 161 Bucknell 22 26.3
67% 89 Colorado State 49 35.9, 92 New Mexico 31 31.0
67% 87 Villanova 41 21.3, 145 Delaware 10 14.7
67% 83 New Hampshire 24 29.7, 133 Maine 21 24.1
66% 235 Incarnate Word 28 32.8, 241 Houston Baptist 26 26.5
66% 214 Rice 44 32.2, 211 Texas - El Paso 24 26.9
66% 130 Southern Illinois 44 33.9, 128 Western Illinois 34 29.2
66% 21 Miami - Florida 27 25.8, 65 North Carolina State 13 20.3
65% 116 Central Michigan 27 27.8, 119 Ohio 20 25.5
65% 115 Northern Illinois 31 35.0, 123 Eastern Michigan 24 32.5
64% 225 Jacksonville 41 35.5, 223 Marist 35 33.0
64% 219 Drake 45 27.0, 227 Stetson 17 24.7
64% 177 Gardner - Webb 34 24.5, 190 Monmouth 33 22.0
58% 160 North Texas 29 30.1, 149 Southern Mississippi 23 29.4
58% 11 Oklahoma 56 34.0, 18 West Virginia 28 33.4
50% 180 Southeast Louisiana 44 26.5, 174 Nicholls State 42 26.4
49% 173 Hawaii 14 29.4, 197 Fresno State 13 29.5
49% 13 Colorado 38 30.6, 7 Washington State 24 30.6
47% 28 Virginia Tech 34 28.7, 36 Notre Dame 31 28.9
44% 54 Arkansas 58 31.3, 66 Mississippi State 42 31.8
36% 184 Mercer 27 29.5, 136 Furman 24 31.2
36% 42 Tulsa 35 36.9, 53 Central Florida 20 38.7
35% 183 Tennessee State 32 22.9, 178 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 26.7
35% 176 Nevada - Reno 38 21.4, 138 Utah State 37 25.3
35% 171 Bryant 42 24.9, 189 Sacred Heart 34 27.9
35% 168 Eastern Illinois 24 29.3, 175 Eastern Kentucky 0 31.4
35% 82 Iowa State 66 39.1, 49 Texas Tech 10 42.0
35% 58 Minnesota 29 23.8, 24 Northwestern 12 27.0
35% 34 Kansas State 42 30.1, 52 Baylor 21 32.1
34% 165 Georgia State 30 21.1, 124 Georgia Southern 24 25.5
33% 213 Columbia 31 18.1, 203 Brown 13 24.1
33% 206 Florida International 31 25.5, 162 Marshall 14 32.2
33% 199 Bowling Green 42 24.5, 125 Kent State 7 31.2
33% 137 William & Mary 34 24.9, 72 Richmond 13 29.9
33% 23 Oklahoma State 31 33.0, 20 Texas Christian 6 38.7
32% 141 Southern Utah 48 26.7, 109 Northern Arizona 21 34.0
32% 71 South Dakota State 45 24.6, 56 Northern Iowa 24 31.9
31% 73 Vanderbilt 38 24.4, 27 Mississippi 17 31.9
29% 81 Wyoming 34 29.5, 31 San Diego State 33 38.5
27% 231 Norfolk State 17 15.3, 220 Hampton 10 23.6
26% 193 Wagner 31 20.1, 132 Saint Francis - Pennsy 24 27.8
20% 108 Arkansas State 35 24.1, 60 Troy State 3 33.8
13% 201 North Carolina Central 42 20.2, 107 North Carolina A&T 21 31.5
13% 70 Oregon 30 31.7, 22 Utah 28 45.8
13% 41 Houston 36 30.0, 4 Louisville 10 43.0
12% 44 Florida 16 9.9, 12 Louisiana State 10 24.6
8% 182 Montana State 24 21.2, 84 Montana 17 41.3
7% 217 Yale 21 19.1, 142 Harvard 14 39.3
7% 179 Kansas 24 17.5, 33 Texas 21 39.5
6% 249 East Tennessee State 15 13.4, 113 Samford 14 39.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.80 32 0.66 19 1.13 28 0.94 33 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 119 85 94.3 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net