prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
94% 93 Arkansas State 36 41.7, 242 Texas State - San Marc 14 14.5
94% 1 Alabama 54 31.1, 41 Florida 16 6.1
93% 19 Western Michigan 29 39.3, 125 Ohio 23 16.6
89% 132 South Alabama 35 38.3, 197 New Mexico State 28 24.5
88% 86 Grambling 27 39.0, 188 Alcorn State 20 26.4
88% 46 Eastern Washington 31 40.8, 103 Central Arkansas 14 27.9
87% 22 West Virginia 24 39.3, 80 Baylor 21 26.5
87% 18 James Madison 55 44.2, 48 New Hampshire 22 31.6
87% 7 Oklahoma 38 45.8, 17 Oklahoma State 20 34.7
82% 5 Clemson 42 34.5, 21 Virginia Tech 35 25.0
81% 4 Washington 41 32.4, 10 Colorado 10 22.6
74% 50 Sam Houston State 41 42.8, 81 Tennessee - Chattanoog 36 33.7
73% 28 Western Kentucky 58 45.0, 43 Louisiana Tech 44 37.0
67% 118 Idaho 37 31.2, 167 Georgia State 12 24.6
66% 159 Louisiana - Lafayette 30 33.1, 190 Northeast Louisiana 3 28.1
66% 74 Richmond 27 30.6, 97 North Dakota 24 25.2
66% 58 South Dakota State 10 27.0, 75 Villanova 7 22.9
66% 55 San Diego State 27 40.3, 90 Wyoming 24 34.4
66% 47 North Dakota State 45 25.2, 71 San Diego 7 19.3
51% 123 Georgia Southern 28 28.2, 87 Troy State 24 28.1
50% 8 Penn State 38 25.3, 12 Wisconsin 31 25.2
35% 99 Wofford 17 20.9, 101 The Citadel 3 24.2
34% 39 Temple 34 28.8, 23 Navy 10 34.2
33% 78 Youngstown State 40 18.6, 62 Jacksonville State 24 24.1
33% 36 Kansas State 30 22.9, 27 Texas Christian 6 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.98 10 0.91 2 1.36 8 1.16 3 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 25 21 18.8 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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