prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 49 Mississippi State 17 37.6, 135 Miami - Ohio 16 21.1
88% 90 Grambling 10 35.7, 180 North Carolina Central 9 21.4
88% 33 Brigham Young 24 40.0, 89 Wyoming 21 25.0
87% 73 Air Force 45 35.7, 143 South Alabama 21 23.6
87% 43 Tulsa 55 42.1, 119 Central Michigan 10 30.9
87% 32 Utah 26 35.1, 78 Indiana 24 23.8
79% 38 South Florida 46 37.2, 112 South Carolina 39 26.5
74% 121 Army 38 28.1, 183 North Texas 31 19.4
68% 1 Alabama 24 29.6, 3 Washington 7 22.0
67% 87 New Mexico 23 36.7, 120 Texas - San Antonio 20 30.1
67% 19 Virginia Tech 35 35.3, 58 Arkansas 24 28.4
66% 34 Tennessee 38 34.7, 57 Nebraska 24 30.3
66% 13 Wisconsin 24 31.3, 25 Western Michigan 16 26.1
65% 114 Old Dominion 24 36.0, 138 Eastern Michigan 20 32.5
65% 45 Georgia Tech 33 34.1, 61 Kentucky 18 30.9
65% 26 Western Kentucky 51 40.2, 40 Memphis 31 36.9
65% 14 Louisiana State 29 30.0, 15 Louisville 9 27.2
65% 8 Southern California 52 30.8, 9 Penn State 49 28.1
65% 7 James Madison 27 32.6, 24 North Dakota State 17 28.6
65% 6 Oklahoma 35 33.3, 11 Auburn 19 30.1
64% 130 Southern Mississippi 28 30.0, 142 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 28.7
63% 94 Troy State 28 25.3, 116 Ohio 23 24.1
56% 102 Boston College 36 22.4, 101 Maryland 30 21.8
55% 17 Miami - Florida 31 27.5, 20 West Virginia 14 27.0
54% 21 Kansas State 33 27.5, 28 Texas A&M 28 27.2
53% 31 Stanford 25 24.9, 29 North Carolina 23 24.6
50% 60 North Carolina State 41 20.2, 53 Vanderbilt 17 20.2
48% 18 Oklahoma State 38 29.8, 16 Colorado 8 29.9
36% 39 Northwestern 31 34.4, 27 Pittsburgh 24 36.2
35% 66 Baylor 31 32.5, 41 Boise State 12 35.5
35% 62 Louisiana Tech 48 38.7, 42 Navy 45 41.6
35% 44 Florida 30 17.0, 22 Iowa 3 20.2
34% 96 Arkansas State 31 23.8, 70 Central Florida 13 29.1
34% 80 Appalachian State 31 26.8, 52 Toledo 28 30.9
34% 50 San Diego State 34 26.0, 23 Houston 10 32.1
33% 59 Georgia 31 21.3, 36 Texas Christian 23 27.7
31% 177 Hawaii 52 34.4, 93 Middle Tennessee State 35 41.9
29% 51 Youngstown State 40 25.4, 30 Eastern Washington 38 33.2
27% 10 Florida State 33 25.5, 4 Michigan 32 34.4
21% 5 Clemson 31 26.2, 2 Ohio State 0 35.0
15% 46 Minnesota 17 25.6, 12 Washington State 12 36.6
13% 118 Idaho 61 27.3, 69 Colorado State 50 38.0
13% 103 Wake Forest 34 12.4, 35 Temple 26 25.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.25 23 0.93 5 0.53 9 0.77 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 43 26 29.9 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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