prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 42 Northwestern 49 47.7, 216 Bowling Green 7 12.7
93% 40 Utah 54 44.8, 249 San Jose State 16 8.0
93% 22 West Virginia 59 54.9, 251 Delaware State 16 8.0
93% 7 Oklahoma 56 56.9, 179 Tulane 14 10.5
93% 1 Alabama 41 39.6, 89 Colorado State 23 7.6
92% 75 Appalachian State 20 39.2, 234 Texas State - San Marc 13 11.1
92% 6 Washington 48 48.0, 163 Fresno State 16 9.7
91% 60 Villanova 59 39.6, 206 Lafayette 0 7.7
91% 20 Washington State 52 56.6, 207 Oregon State 23 24.6
91% 14 James Madison 75 54.6, 229 Norfolk State 14 8.5
90% 88 Arizona 63 42.3, 218 Texas - El Paso 16 20.7
90% 81 Richmond 68 49.5, 237 Howard 21 16.6
90% 35 Boise State 28 43.9, 116 New Mexico 14 22.3
90% 19 Virginia Tech 64 42.3, 142 East Carolina 17 21.8
90% 4 Ohio State 38 43.2, 102 Army 7 7.3
89% 65 Youngstown State 59 38.2, 209 Central Connecticut 9 12.7
89% 52 Minnesota 34 39.1, 118 Middle Tennessee State 3 23.7
89% 11 Penn State 56 46.4, 157 Georgia State 0 12.6
88% 77 Liberty 42 41.0, 175 Indiana State 41 19.4
88% 37 Western Michigan 37 45.6, 151 Idaho 28 24.1
87% 152 Grambling 36 31.4, 247 Jackson State 21 8.5
86% 32 Texas A&M 45 45.4, 150 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 21.6
85% 173 Rutgers 65 31.5, 248 Morgan State 0 14.8
85% 122 North Carolina A&T 35 41.7, 220 North Carolina - Charl 31 20.0
85% 59 Temple 29 34.4, 188 Massachusetts 21 13.5
85% 54 South Dakota State 51 42.3, 214 Drake 10 18.6
84% 153 South Alabama 45 37.7, 244 Alabama A&M 0 19.9
84% 79 Troy State 27 39.8, 190 New Mexico State 24 23.5
84% 44 North Carolina State 49 40.7, 156 Furman 16 20.3
84% 29 Iowa 31 39.8, 145 North Texas 14 16.0
84% 28 Houston 38 43.1, 197 Rice 3 11.2
84% 12 Auburn 24 38.4, 135 Mercer 10 14.2
84% 5 Michigan 29 42.7, 55 Air Force 13 20.3
82% 95 Montana 56 48.4, 242 Savannah State 3 16.8
82% 93 Arkansas State 48 53.8, 254 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 3 15.6
82% 8 Southern California 27 44.6, 46 Texas 24 25.1
81% 53 Iowa State 41 42.3, 149 Akron 14 27.7
81% 31 North Carolina 53 37.5, 110 Old Dominion 23 24.7
77% 97 Central Arkansas 38 35.5, 178 Southeast Louisiana 6 20.9
77% 27 Texas Christian 56 40.0, 87 Southern Methodist 36 23.2
76% 16 Wisconsin 40 24.4, 132 Brigham Young 6 11.4
74% 61 South Dakota 45 41.0, 99 North Dakota 7 27.1
74% 38 Duke 34 37.1, 83 Baylor 20 23.1
72% 228 Stephen F. Austin 37 41.3, 246 Incarnate Word 31 32.2
72% 57 Texas Tech 52 52.2, 90 Arizona State 45 42.5
71% 49 Georgia 42 35.9, 104 Samford 14 24.4
71% 47 Oregon 49 45.0, 98 Wyoming 13 35.8
71% 23 Colorado 41 44.3, 174 Northern Colorado 21 19.4
70% 134 Ball State 28 33.4, 196 Tennessee Tech 13 24.8
70% 131 William & Mary 30 23.8, 186 Bucknell 9 14.0
70% 117 Virginia 38 28.1, 191 Connecticut 18 16.4
70% 114 Albany 28 30.5, 155 Monmouth 14 21.3
70% 113 Southern Mississippi 28 36.8, 195 Northeast Louisiana 17 28.5
70% 13 Oklahoma State 59 42.5, 30 Pittsburgh 21 34.4
69% 126 Dartmouth 38 36.7, 239 Stetson 7 15.8
69% 107 South Florida 47 36.4, 121 Illinois 23 27.5
69% 96 Illinois State 44 30.7, 176 Eastern Illinois 13 21.8
69% 33 Notre Dame 49 30.1, 108 Boston College 20 21.2
69% 2 Clemson 47 36.9, 15 Louisville 21 29.1
68% 128 Ohio 42 31.7, 172 Kansas 30 22.4
67% 226 Abilene Christian 24 33.2, 241 Houston Baptist 3 25.4
67% 101 The Citadel 31 35.6, 235 East Tennessee State 25 14.4
66% 158 Marshall 21 30.2, 187 Kent State 0 22.8
64% 199 Columbia 17 27.5, 202 Wagner 14 21.6
64% 168 Western Carolina 42 30.7, 221 Gardner - Webb 27 24.4
64% 148 Weber State 31 36.4, 211 Sacramento State 24 30.7
64% 146 Delaware 41 30.8, 194 Cornell 14 22.8
64% 138 Kennesaw State 20 35.3, 224 Alabama State 14 28.0
64% 115 Syracuse 41 33.1, 111 Central Michigan 17 31.1
64% 105 Southern Illinois 35 34.3, 189 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 25.8
64% 68 Princeton 27 36.5, 112 San Diego 17 26.5
64% 66 Wake Forest 46 26.8, 100 Utah State 10 20.1
64% 39 Memphis 48 36.6, 50 California - Los Angel 45 30.8
64% 24 Florida 26 32.1, 25 Tennessee 20 26.5
64% 17 Mississippi State 37 28.2, 9 Louisiana State 7 24.3
62% 233 Robert Morris 23 19.8, 205 Virginia Military 0 18.2
62% 63 Toledo 54 46.6, 45 Tulsa 51 45.3
59% 232 Northwestern State 35 31.1, 223 Lamar 28 29.6
56% 169 Stony Brook 45 22.0, 154 Sacred Heart 7 20.8
55% 193 Brown 28 33.0, 159 Bryant 23 31.3
55% 140 Tennessee - Martin 21 27.0, 162 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 25.8
54% 139 Texas - San Antonio 51 28.8, 167 Southern 17 28.1
52% 192 Tennessee State 24 22.8, 215 Florida A&M 13 22.5
52% 137 Cincinnati 21 21.9, 143 Miami - Ohio 17 21.6
52% 51 California 27 44.9, 36 Mississippi 16 44.7
50% 222 Missouri State 28 34.4, 212 Murray State 21 34.4
43% 198 Nicholls State 44 35.4, 200 Prairie View 13 37.0
41% 76 Eastern Washington 56 39.8, 123 Fordham 21 40.6
39% 204 Idaho State 30 33.1, 171 Nevada - Reno 28 35.7
36% 245 Presbyterian 28 18.2, 238 Campbell 16 21.4
36% 236 Austin Peay 69 37.3, 227 Morehead State 13 45.0
36% 230 Marist 14 17.8, 210 Georgetown 12 26.3
36% 160 McNeese State 34 28.5, 177 Alcorn State 27 33.1
36% 147 Duquesne 28 27.0, 180 Dayton 23 30.6
36% 69 Kentucky 23 27.1, 80 South Carolina 13 30.6
36% 58 Vanderbilt 14 19.9, 21 Kansas State 7 24.1
36% 48 Louisiana Tech 23 36.4, 41 Western Kentucky 22 39.2
33% 182 Towson 16 18.2, 124 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 29.9
33% 130 Southern Utah 24 25.4, 62 Northern Iowa 21 35.7
32% 185 Yale 56 31.1, 82 Lehigh 28 46.8
32% 133 Alabama - Birmingham 30 32.0, 74 Coastal Carolina 23 45.4
31% 170 Holy Cross 51 25.4, 78 New Hampshire 26 32.8
30% 219 Rhode Island 17 20.6, 120 Harvard 10 40.0
30% 127 Purdue 35 31.8, 86 Missouri 3 41.6
28% 164 California - Davis 37 27.3, 119 Portland State 14 41.8
20% 43 San Diego State 20 23.9, 3 Stanford 17 41.7
19% 201 Buffalo 33 9.8, 92 Colgate 10 29.1
19% 106 Northern Illinois 21 23.0, 56 Nebraska 17 37.1
18% 231 Elon 19 16.9, 72 Charleston Southern 17 40.9
18% 217 Florida Atlantic 45 23.8, 181 Bethune - Cookman 0 40.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.33 42 0.94 14 1.28 30 0.98 13 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 85 81.2 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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