prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
96% 148 Grambling 38 49.0, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 6 11.7
96% 18 Louisville 42 47.0, 200 Kent State 3 11.4
96% 14 Virginia Tech 38 45.7, 125 Old Dominion 0 16.1
96% 2 Clemson 34 45.5, 119 Boston College 7 4.8
94% 105 Wofford 27 30.8, 227 Gardner - Webb 24 7.3
94% 69 Sam Houston State 66 49.9, 173 Nicholls State 17 28.4
94% 27 Tennessee 17 44.3, 172 Massachusetts 13 18.1
94% 10 James Madison 28 48.8, 96 Maine 10 24.2
94% 5 Oklahoma 49 43.5, 68 Baylor 41 25.4
93% 25 North Dakota State 56 36.9, 212 Robert Morris 0 1.6
92% 23 Washington State 45 44.1, 152 Nevada - Reno 7 18.5
92% 3 Ohio State 54 52.1, 138 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 14.0
90% 90 Troy State 22 35.2, 174 Akron 17 18.0
90% 88 Illinois State 34 38.3, 216 Missouri State 9 16.3
90% 11 Auburn 51 35.2, 129 Missouri 14 12.4
89% 101 Texas - San Antonio 44 34.0, 231 Texas State - San Marc 14 13.7
88% 133 Middle Tennessee State 24 39.1, 203 Bowling Green 13 25.0
87% 127 San Diego 38 40.9, 242 Butler 17 13.8
87% 104 North Carolina A&T 49 39.9, 251 Morgan State 17 11.7
87% 97 New Hampshire 28 35.1, 195 Rhode Island 14 18.5
87% 56 Western Michigan 49 39.5, 202 Wagner 14 17.2
87% 17 Louisiana State 35 38.6, 94 Syracuse 26 14.0
86% 24 West Virginia 56 45.0, 171 Kansas 34 21.3
86% 6 Michigan 28 40.3, 81 Purdue 10 21.5
85% 156 McNeese State 27 36.4, 246 Houston Baptist 12 11.4
85% 1 Alabama 59 27.6, 51 Vanderbilt 0 8.2
83% 70 Nebraska 27 33.1, 139 Rutgers 17 17.4
78% 169 New Mexico State 41 40.6, 220 Texas - El Paso 14 27.2
74% 98 Stony Brook 25 27.1, 184 Towson 17 12.4
74% 77 Princeton 38 42.5, 222 Lafayette 17 18.3
73% 71 Western Kentucky 33 36.2, 108 Ball State 21 24.7
73% 38 Georgia Tech 35 40.4, 50 Pittsburgh 17 30.9
68% 149 Utah State 61 35.0, 236 San Jose State 10 22.8
68% 60 Navy 42 34.3, 122 Cincinnati 32 21.4
67% 72 Indiana 52 35.4, 120 Georgia Southern 17 23.9
67% 12 Southern California 30 41.1, 44 California 20 32.5
66% 187 Southeast Louisiana 49 32.8, 224 Lamar 21 22.5
66% 162 Monmouth 30 29.1, 221 Hampton 23 21.1
66% 32 Texas A&M 50 37.1, 62 Arkansas 43 29.8
66% 16 Miami - Florida 52 42.8, 52 Toledo 30 28.7
65% 225 Florida A&M 20 24.4, 249 Savannah State 14 12.4
65% 194 Eastern Kentucky 24 26.4, 201 Tennessee Tech 21 20.6
65% 186 Alcorn State 48 31.7, 190 Southern 31 25.8
65% 19 Stanford 58 38.0, 41 California - Los Angel 34 27.8
65% 8 Penn State 21 28.4, 33 Iowa 19 22.3
65% 4 Washington 37 28.2, 26 Colorado 10 20.3
64% 235 Norfolk State 17 23.0, 244 Delaware State 7 19.9
64% 232 Drake 38 32.7, 240 Valparaiso 13 27.1
64% 218 Tennessee - Chattanoog 63 17.7, 215 Virginia Military 7 13.3
64% 189 Georgia State 28 26.8, 217 North Carolina - Charl 0 22.2
64% 178 Northern Colorado 43 41.6, 213 Idaho State 42 31.1
64% 177 Yale 49 38.7, 196 Cornell 24 29.7
64% 170 Bucknell 34 24.8, 168 Sacred Heart 31 21.7
64% 165 Buffalo 34 27.0, 154 Florida Atlantic 31 24.6
64% 147 Tennessee - Martin 31 32.4, 180 Tennessee State 16 26.7
64% 132 Wyoming 28 41.7, 155 Hawaii 21 36.5
64% 131 Harvard 45 35.4, 191 Brown 28 21.7
64% 109 Ohio 27 29.6, 146 Eastern Michigan 20 24.5
64% 102 Jacksonville State 31 38.0, 106 Liberty 10 33.3
64% 80 South Carolina 17 34.3, 78 Louisiana Tech 16 28.7
64% 57 Memphis 44 39.5, 103 Southern Illinois 31 33.1
64% 46 Wake Forest 20 24.7, 91 Appalachian State 19 20.5
64% 28 Florida 28 24.7, 66 Kentucky 27 20.2
64% 21 Notre Dame 38 33.0, 63 Michigan State 18 28.4
63% 118 Dartmouth 27 29.6, 114 Holy Cross 26 24.1
62% 238 Campbell 49 24.6, 245 Stetson 21 22.6
62% 192 Eastern Illinois 19 23.2, 193 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 21.5
61% 198 Columbia 35 20.2, 209 Georgetown 14 16.5
61% 75 South Florida 43 36.1, 76 Temple 7 34.1
57% 183 North Carolina Central 33 25.2, 176 South Carolina State 28 22.5
55% 248 Alabama A&M 30 26.2, 250 Texas Southern 13 25.5
54% 48 Utah 30 30.7, 67 Arizona 24 30.1
53% 123 Pennsylvania 65 37.5, 126 Lehigh 47 36.7
52% 181 Bryant 45 35.1, 166 Fordham 40 34.7
50% 84 Southern Methodist 44 35.5, 86 Arkansas State 21 35.5
49% 210 Jacksonville 44 33.5, 229 Marist 37 33.7
48% 64 Eastern Washington 48 37.0, 87 Montana 41 37.3
47% 208 Prairie View 34 27.4, 228 Alabama State 0 28.3
46% 43 San Diego State 28 27.0, 61 Air Force 24 27.8
44% 206 Austin Peay 27 36.0, 211 Murray State 7 37.0
44% 160 Western Carolina 38 36.9, 121 Samford 34 38.0
39% 207 Florida International 13 23.5, 223 Rice 7 25.0
39% 145 North Texas 46 33.9, 116 Alabama - Birmingham 43 35.8
38% 30 Duke 27 30.8, 29 North Carolina 17 33.1
37% 161 Weber State 41 24.9, 137 California - Davis 3 27.1
37% 128 Tulane 21 22.2, 92 Army 17 24.5
37% 74 Central Florida 38 30.7, 73 Maryland 10 34.1
36% 159 Idaho 29 27.4, 142 South Alabama 23 31.6
36% 157 Northern Arizona 28 32.6, 182 California Poly 10 36.2
36% 143 Furman 45 19.8, 167 Colgate 14 26.2
36% 99 Western Illinois 52 29.1, 83 Coastal Carolina 10 36.3
36% 47 Texas Tech 27 36.4, 34 Houston 24 43.9
36% 36 Georgia 31 25.1, 15 Mississippi State 3 30.0
35% 230 Stephen F. Austin 20 33.5, 219 Abilene Christian 10 38.8
35% 158 Montana State 49 19.4, 111 North Dakota 21 28.2
35% 144 Miami - Ohio 31 22.9, 124 Central Michigan 14 30.1
34% 112 Albany 19 14.6, 59 Villanova 10 24.3
33% 197 Northeast Louisiana 56 28.0, 151 Louisiana - Lafayette 50 39.4
33% 49 North Carolina State 27 23.9, 9 Florida State 21 40.2
31% 204 Sacramento State 54 24.8, 95 Southern Utah 27 40.5
31% 20 Texas Christian 44 27.0, 7 Oklahoma State 31 38.5
28% 85 Arizona State 37 38.2, 31 Oregon 35 46.6
24% 253 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 34 12.6, 237 Jackson State 27 34.9
24% 243 Morehead State 34 23.8, 179 Dayton 28 41.2
21% 241 Howard 26 25.5, 185 Bethune - Cookman 24 38.5
16% 234 East Tennessee State 26 13.9, 110 Mercer 23 35.0
13% 205 Elon 36 15.5, 79 Richmond 33 38.3
13% 130 New Mexico 16 34.2, 54 Tulsa 13 50.0
8% 115 Virginia 42 19.6, 40 Boise State 23 39.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.93 57 1.01 9 0.74 16 0.94 15 1.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 75 77.8 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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