prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
96% 95 Charleston Southern 58 54.1, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 10.4
96% 55 Kentucky 24 35.6, 153 Eastern Michigan 20 17.2
96% 22 Louisville 55 54.6, 227 Murray State 10 12.8
96% 21 North Dakota State 38 52.9, 231 Missouri State 11 4.0
96% 1 Alabama 66 44.3, 47 Mississippi 3 14.5
95% 126 Mercer 49 38.8, 241 Virginia Military 14 13.3
95% 74 Pittsburgh 42 42.5, 230 Rice 10 14.4
95% 10 James Madison 20 42.1, 149 Delaware 10 18.7
95% 6 Ohio State 56 37.7, 125 Rutgers 0 11.3
95% 3 Washington 42 55.5, 199 Oregon State 7 17.9
94% 138 Wyoming 45 36.7, 223 Texas State - San Marc 10 13.7
94% 15 Notre Dame 52 43.1, 135 Miami - Ohio 17 14.6
92% 73 Eastern Washington 52 49.2, 168 Sacramento State 31 26.4
91% 102 Army 35 41.1, 228 Texas - El Paso 21 13.5
91% 7 Penn State 45 40.8, 52 Indiana 14 20.3
89% 190 Bethune - Cookman 24 37.6, 250 Savannah State 12 14.9
89% 111 Furman 56 39.5, 214 East Tennessee State 35 17.0
89% 33 Jacksonville State 34 37.9, 197 Tennessee Tech 7 10.7
89% 17 Stanford 34 49.5, 82 Arizona State 24 27.4
88% 96 Montana 45 42.2, 221 Portland State 33 21.1
88% 64 Arkansas 42 41.8, 143 New Mexico State 24 22.3
88% 34 San Diego State 34 33.1, 103 Northern Illinois 28 17.0
87% 62 Villanova 24 28.4, 180 Towson 9 10.8
86% 243 Alabama A&M 27 36.2, 252 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 20.6
85% 76 Illinois State 24 38.3, 158 Indiana State 13 18.9
85% 51 South Florida 61 47.1, 166 East Carolina 31 29.5
85% 8 Oklahoma State 41 49.7, 37 Texas Tech 34 38.6
84% 188 Alcorn State 24 35.6, 251 Texas Southern 17 19.5
84% 26 Kansas State 33 36.0, 75 Baylor 20 21.8
82% 133 Nevada - Las Vegas 41 45.3, 240 San Jose State 13 26.2
81% 119 New Hampshire 45 37.0, 187 Bryant 17 24.7
80% 13 Wisconsin 33 32.7, 53 Northwestern 24 14.9
79% 79 Louisiana Tech 34 37.9, 163 South Alabama 16 22.5
79% 28 Oregon 45 46.7, 44 California 24 36.8
77% 165 McNeese State 35 39.0, 234 Stephen F. Austin 0 23.8
75% 204 Florida International 30 31.1, 236 North Carolina - Charl 29 19.6
75% 69 Western Michigan 55 39.7, 122 Ball State 3 26.1
74% 129 Wofford 31 28.6, 238 Presbyterian 7 12.6
74% 70 Southern Methodist 49 38.5, 191 Connecticut 28 20.5
71% 65 Colorado State 51 40.7, 136 Hawaii 21 29.2
69% 232 Campbell 38 38.6, 239 Morehead State 0 29.1
69% 40 North Carolina State 33 36.6, 89 Syracuse 25 26.2
67% 201 Prairie View 38 32.2, 242 Jackson State 9 20.1
67% 35 Texas A&M 24 34.8, 83 South Carolina 17 23.6
67% 11 Auburn 49 29.0, 16 Mississippi State 10 19.9
66% 237 Valparaiso 27 34.4, 249 Stetson 24 26.8
66% 179 Nicholls State 41 34.4, 229 Lamar 14 26.8
66% 141 Northern Arizona 48 38.5, 177 Northern Colorado 20 27.5
66% 131 Harvard 41 24.2, 213 Georgetown 2 13.6
66% 106 Boston College 28 29.0, 156 Central Michigan 8 20.8
66% 36 Houston 20 29.1, 109 Temple 13 20.6
65% 226 Marist 31 33.3, 253 Davidson 9 19.8
65% 224 Abilene Christian 45 32.4, 248 Incarnate Word 20 23.5
65% 194 Brown 24 29.3, 192 Rhode Island 21 22.6
65% 172 Akron 34 29.2, 206 Bowling Green 23 25.9
65% 29 Florida 38 20.7, 61 Vanderbilt 24 11.0
65% 2 Clemson 31 29.2, 9 Virginia Tech 17 25.2
64% 196 Southeast Missouri Sta 29 24.1, 195 Eastern Kentucky 10 19.2
64% 183 Southeast Louisiana 49 32.7, 220 Northwestern State 20 27.7
64% 155 Buffalo 27 20.8, 208 Kent State 13 17.7
64% 148 Fresno State 41 29.5, 176 Nevada - Reno 21 24.7
64% 146 California - Davis 48 25.5, 159 North Dakota 24 21.1
64% 85 North Carolina A&T 21 29.5, 186 South Carolina State 7 20.2
64% 80 Nebraska 28 27.3, 124 Illinois 6 23.3
64% 56 Central Florida 40 37.3, 57 Memphis 13 33.6
64% 42 Youngstown State 19 30.5, 43 South Dakota State 7 26.7
64% 38 California - Los Angel 27 29.6, 41 Colorado 23 26.4
64% 31 Georgia Tech 33 34.3, 30 North Carolina 7 30.0
64% 18 Florida State 26 29.9, 39 Wake Forest 19 23.9
64% 14 Miami - Florida 31 30.4, 27 Duke 6 26.3
63% 154 Yale 41 40.3, 182 Fordham 10 37.2
63% 127 Utah State 40 24.3, 175 Brigham Young 24 22.2
62% 205 Colgate 21 25.1, 210 Cornell 7 22.7
62% 189 North Carolina Central 21 20.6, 222 Florida A&M 14 17.8
61% 104 Ohio 58 24.5, 167 Massachusetts 50 22.8
56% 147 San Diego 23 23.7, 200 Dayton 7 23.0
55% 20 Georgia 41 28.5, 49 Tennessee 0 27.8
53% 218 Drake 27 26.9, 244 Butler 16 26.1
50% 91 Northern Iowa 24 30.5, 99 Southern Illinois 17 30.5
50% 45 South Dakota 38 35.4, 72 Western Illinois 33 35.5
49% 94 Stony Brook 21 20.3, 115 William & Mary 18 20.5
46% 128 Samford 35 28.7, 105 The Citadel 14 29.2
46% 25 Washington State 30 32.9, 19 Southern California 27 33.5
43% 67 Michigan State 17 22.4, 32 Iowa 10 23.6
41% 123 Dartmouth 16 22.6, 120 Pennsylvania 13 26.6
40% 93 Central Arkansas 41 35.7, 58 Sam Houston State 30 37.1
39% 50 Texas 17 32.9, 48 Iowa State 7 34.7
37% 162 Monmouth 35 23.3, 170 Bucknell 13 25.4
36% 202 Idaho State 38 33.2, 209 California Poly 34 36.8
36% 185 Eastern Illinois 19 23.4, 193 Tennessee State 16 26.5
36% 150 Florida Atlantic 38 30.0, 134 Middle Tennessee State 20 31.7
36% 110 Weber State 25 24.1, 118 Montana State 17 28.9
36% 60 Navy 31 39.1, 78 Tulsa 21 41.2
35% 207 Wagner 37 34.5, 157 Lehigh 20 38.5
35% 171 Austin Peay 7 26.6, 114 Tennessee - Martin 0 33.8
35% 142 Marshall 38 21.7, 112 Cincinnati 21 29.0
34% 178 Elon 6 15.3, 100 Albany 0 22.9
33% 145 Western Carolina 45 26.8, 117 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 38.0
33% 137 North Texas 43 27.0, 98 Southern Mississippi 28 36.1
33% 132 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 24.3, 97 Liberty 7 32.5
33% 116 New Mexico 56 23.6, 59 Air Force 38 30.7
32% 181 Northeast Louisiana 51 27.6, 113 Coastal Carolina 43 40.0
32% 88 Maryland 31 21.0, 46 Minnesota 24 33.1
28% 198 Columbia 28 13.4, 77 Princeton 24 35.5
22% 211 Central Connecticut 26 23.8, 164 Sacred Heart 15 38.0
11% 108 Troy State 24 9.8, 23 Louisiana State 21 32.9
5% 225 Lafayette 10 18.4, 101 Holy Cross 7 42.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.56 53 1.02 11 1.08 17 1.09 16 0.99 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 78 77.9 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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