prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 86 Central Arkansas 24 44.2, 242 Stephen F. Austin 20 9.7
97% 46 Western Illinois 49 49.0, 223 Missouri State 30 13.4
97% 4 Georgia 53 45.8, 145 Missouri 28 7.2
96% 140 San Diego 56 50.1, 252 Morehead State 27 11.8
96% 1 Alabama 41 47.1, 76 Arkansas 9 10.4
95% 85 Furman 42 49.9, 248 Virginia Military 10 14.4
95% 73 Sam Houston State 40 48.5, 221 Northwestern State 36 19.5
95% 38 South Florida 33 47.7, 141 Cincinnati 3 22.1
94% 119 Harvard 38 35.3, 229 Lafayette 10 9.2
94% 109 Southern Mississippi 24 39.6, 224 Texas - El Paso 0 14.8
94% 23 Central Florida 63 54.2, 202 East Carolina 21 19.4
94% 19 Mississippi State 35 39.1, 174 Brigham Young 10 13.4
93% 98 Maine 51 34.3, 184 Rhode Island 27 16.4
93% 63 North Carolina A&T 31 37.4, 222 Florida A&M 20 14.5
93% 24 South Dakota 56 50.0, 177 Indiana State 6 22.6
93% 9 Oklahoma State 59 45.8, 79 Baylor 16 23.1
93% 3 Ohio State 56 38.6, 72 Nebraska 14 18.6
92% 136 Western Kentucky 45 38.2, 238 North Carolina - Charl 14 9.9
92% 57 Jacksonville State 41 37.1, 207 Eastern Kentucky 25 8.3
92% 51 Colorado State 44 39.0, 163 Nevada - Reno 42 15.6
92% 31 Iowa State 45 50.4, 193 Kansas 0 21.2
91% 240 Alabama A&M 49 37.1, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 19.0
90% 160 Southeast Louisiana 56 35.4, 243 Houston Baptist 10 20.4
90% 60 Colorado 36 38.2, 179 Oregon State 33 19.7
89% 172 Hawaii 37 39.8, 233 San Jose State 26 23.9
89% 161 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 41.1, 235 Texas State - San Marc 7 22.4
89% 97 Montana 41 40.8, 164 North Dakota 17 23.2
89% 12 Wisconsin 17 37.4, 52 Purdue 9 18.7
87% 108 Western Carolina 49 42.3, 204 East Tennessee State 10 24.0
86% 104 Mercer 30 33.5, 195 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 18.4
83% 8 Oklahoma 29 41.6, 33 Texas 24 28.4
82% 120 Charleston Southern 7 32.6, 227 Presbyterian 0 17.1
81% 65 Eastern Washington 31 41.6, 127 Montana State 19 27.7
78% 159 Nicholls State 29 31.8, 220 Abilene Christian 20 18.3
78% 111 Ohio 48 37.8, 206 Bowling Green 30 26.3
75% 75 Toledo 30 40.3, 166 Central Michigan 10 30.1
75% 61 Air Force 34 44.9, 123 Nevada - Las Vegas 30 31.2
73% 100 Northern Arizona 42 38.1, 196 Portland State 20 25.4
73% 89 Princeton 53 36.0, 199 Brown 0 24.0
73% 20 Southern California 28 32.5, 54 Utah 27 19.9
72% 187 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 27.3, 208 Tennessee Tech 3 17.9
72% 148 Duquesne 51 27.8, 226 Robert Morris 14 16.8
71% 15 James Madison 30 34.3, 35 Villanova 8 23.2
68% 181 Lehigh 54 39.0, 225 Georgetown 35 30.0
68% 125 Marshall 35 33.6, 171 Old Dominion 3 22.7
68% 81 Appalachian State 23 31.5, 180 Idaho 20 20.6
67% 246 Stetson 28 29.9, 254 Davidson 17 17.4
67% 232 Alabama State 23 21.8, 251 Texas Southern 16 13.2
67% 197 Colgate 38 30.3, 210 Fordham 12 21.6
67% 183 North Carolina Central 24 27.6, 209 Gardner - Webb 17 16.2
67% 96 Yale 32 37.8, 130 Holy Cross 0 27.9
67% 94 Arkansas State 51 37.8, 154 Coastal Carolina 17 27.1
67% 25 Stanford 49 39.6, 28 Oregon 7 32.6
67% 17 Michigan 27 30.3, 43 Indiana 20 22.2
67% 13 Miami - Florida 25 33.9, 27 Georgia Tech 24 22.4
66% 170 Sacramento State 41 41.5, 194 Idaho State 21 36.0
66% 168 Alcorn State 34 35.7, 188 Prairie View 21 28.9
66% 113 Dartmouth 29 28.7, 173 Sacred Heart 26 21.7
66% 101 Army 28 26.1, 134 Eastern Michigan 27 19.0
66% 83 Richmond 23 33.2, 175 Towson 3 25.4
66% 37 North Carolina State 35 34.5, 82 Pittsburgh 17 29.4
66% 11 North Dakota State 27 26.3, 26 Youngstown State 24 18.0
65% 245 Morgan State 48 22.0, 249 Savannah State 28 16.9
65% 200 Eastern Illinois 27 26.8, 218 Murray State 24 21.4
65% 185 Bucknell 26 25.5, 214 Cornell 18 21.2
65% 90 Northern Illinois 14 30.6, 126 Buffalo 13 26.7
64% 167 Saint Francis - Pennsy 30 27.6, 205 Bryant 14 24.2
64% 158 Alabama - Birmingham 25 33.3, 157 Middle Tennessee State 23 29.2
64% 121 Delaware 17 20.5, 122 William & Mary 0 16.7
64% 112 Fresno State 38 31.2, 118 New Mexico 0 27.5
64% 84 Stony Brook 38 27.9, 124 New Hampshire 24 23.0
64% 29 West Virginia 46 44.3, 22 Texas Tech 35 40.5
63% 44 Arizona 47 41.2, 49 California - Los Angel 30 38.6
63% 21 Florida State 17 28.1, 41 Duke 10 26.0
63% 14 Texas Christian 26 31.1, 42 Kansas State 6 27.5
62% 77 Mississippi 57 27.9, 69 Vanderbilt 35 26.1
58% 59 Northwestern 37 31.6, 80 Maryland 21 30.3
57% 192 Bethune - Cookman 12 21.5, 178 South Carolina State 9 20.4
53% 234 Butler 37 31.8, 216 Jacksonville 22 31.3
53% 47 Michigan State 30 18.8, 64 Minnesota 27 18.1
50% 153 Columbia 34 26.9, 142 Pennsylvania 31 26.9
49% 217 Hampton 16 20.7, 219 Norfolk State 14 21.0
48% 128 Southern Illinois 42 26.8, 99 Illinois State 7 27.1
48% 62 Memphis 30 39.6, 50 Navy 27 39.9
39% 132 Wofford 20 24.0, 131 The Citadel 16 26.1
37% 239 Valparaiso 49 30.1, 231 Marist 15 32.1
37% 237 Howard 52 26.9, 241 Delaware State 23 28.9
37% 182 Central Connecticut 51 24.3, 213 Wagner 45 27.4
37% 162 Georgia State 47 28.2, 144 Northeast Louisiana 37 31.3
37% 155 Austin Peay 21 24.9, 186 Tennessee State 17 27.5
37% 68 Virginia 20 27.7, 71 North Carolina 14 31.0
36% 203 Campbell 17 19.7, 211 Dayton 7 24.1
36% 149 Rutgers 35 19.5, 152 Illinois 24 23.8
36% 143 Southern Utah 32 25.6, 106 Weber State 16 30.3
36% 138 Kennesaw State 42 28.8, 139 Liberty 28 33.6
36% 135 New Mexico State 35 30.3, 147 Georgia Southern 27 35.1
36% 129 North Texas 29 27.4, 88 Texas - San Antonio 26 32.1
35% 247 Incarnate Word 33 29.4, 236 Lamar 24 36.5
35% 137 Wyoming 28 28.6, 115 Utah State 23 34.5
35% 66 South Carolina 15 24.3, 67 Tennessee 9 28.7
34% 215 Kent State 17 17.0, 156 Miami - Ohio 14 22.7
34% 56 Boise State 31 22.1, 34 San Diego State 14 29.6
34% 48 Texas A&M 19 26.5, 40 Florida 17 33.0
33% 53 Louisiana State 27 15.9, 6 Auburn 23 26.2
30% 70 California 37 27.9, 18 Washington State 3 37.4
23% 114 Tulsa 45 26.0, 45 Houston 17 36.2
17% 201 Connecticut 28 13.4, 117 Temple 24 31.8
15% 212 Florida International 23 17.8, 91 Tulane 10 34.4
14% 105 Boston College 45 17.8, 39 Louisville 42 35.7
14% 92 Northern Iowa 38 22.2, 36 South Dakota State 18 38.1
13% 176 South Alabama 19 15.9, 95 Troy State 8 32.7
12% 151 Akron 14 24.9, 55 Western Michigan 13 42.7
10% 78 Arizona State 13 20.7, 7 Washington 7 40.8
5% 87 Syracuse 27 17.1, 2 Clemson 24 42.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 1.17 54 0.94 11 1.22 18 0.71 23 1.02 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 114 81 84.8 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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