prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 141 Grambling 50 39.8, 250 Texas Southern 24 6.6
97% 16 James Madison 21 48.1, 130 New Hampshire 0 22.3
95% 151 The Citadel 21 38.1, 251 Virginia Military 3 7.6
95% 43 Kansas State 30 42.5, 201 Kansas 20 16.0
95% 15 Stanford 15 49.1, 179 Oregon State 14 20.6
94% 121 San Diego 48 39.4, 247 Stetson 7 11.6
94% 13 Wisconsin 24 37.5, 155 Illinois 10 11.4
93% 112 Louisiana Tech 42 37.0, 227 Rice 28 17.6
92% 199 North Carolina Central 42 32.1, 241 Delaware State 14 14.6
92% 61 Toledo 58 42.8, 210 Ball State 17 24.1
92% 23 Michigan 35 32.2, 109 Rutgers 14 9.5
92% 17 Central Florida 73 43.6, 150 Austin Peay 33 18.2
92% 12 Oklahoma 49 50.5, 31 Texas Tech 27 33.7
92% 9 Virginia Tech 24 34.7, 62 Duke 3 14.0
90% 228 Valparaiso 63 45.4, 252 Morehead State 32 29.6
90% 182 Southern 47 43.8, 248 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 40 20.1
90% 173 Brigham Young 41 32.6, 223 San Jose State 20 14.0
90% 14 North Dakota State 30 36.6, 56 Northern Iowa 14 16.1
90% 4 Clemson 24 35.9, 21 Georgia Tech 10 19.4
89% 169 Nicholls State 38 43.1, 249 Incarnate Word 31 21.5
89% 68 Jacksonville State 23 33.6, 162 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 14.1
88% 70 San Diego State 28 36.2, 165 Hawaii 7 21.1
88% 52 Memphis 56 40.2, 137 Tulane 26 26.3
88% 6 Notre Dame 35 39.8, 24 North Carolina State 14 23.9
87% 225 Drake 17 36.1, 253 Davidson 12 15.3
87% 113 Texas - San Antonio 31 34.4, 226 Texas - El Paso 14 14.2
87% 10 Washington 44 39.7, 42 California - Los Angel 23 21.8
86% 207 Northwestern State 10 31.1, 254 Houston Baptist 7 10.7
86% 160 Holy Cross 24 31.7, 234 Georgetown 10 17.1
86% 102 Troy State 38 36.5, 185 Georgia Southern 16 17.6
86% 22 South Dakota 42 42.3, 80 Southern Illinois 0 29.4
86% 18 Miami - Florida 24 33.8, 100 North Carolina 19 18.7
84% 195 Saint Francis - Pennsy 36 21.2, 235 Robert Morris 7 6.7
83% 79 Maine 23 28.8, 152 William & Mary 6 15.5
83% 78 Northern Arizona 37 42.0, 140 Sacramento State 17 28.5
79% 64 Yale 23 33.3, 128 Columbia 6 19.4
78% 139 Kennesaw State 28 31.2, 224 Presbyterian 0 16.2
77% 149 Montana State 28 39.2, 168 Idaho State 14 27.1
75% 125 California - Davis 31 33.1, 175 California Poly 28 23.3
75% 73 Arkansas State 37 39.2, 131 New Mexico State 21 28.5
75% 57 Southern Methodist 38 49.7, 118 Tulsa 34 39.3
74% 172 Bethune - Cookman 24 26.4, 212 Hampton 21 15.6
73% 136 Wofford 31 29.2, 209 East Tennessee State 24 16.7
71% 8 Georgia 42 28.5, 46 Florida 7 15.8
70% 202 Dayton 27 26.4, 213 Butler 22 18.5
70% 154 Colgate 40 24.2, 191 Bucknell 3 12.7
69% 98 Southern Utah 27 40.0, 186 Northern Colorado 14 29.4
68% 28 Texas 38 35.5, 104 Baylor 7 26.3
67% 216 Florida A&M 34 28.1, 244 Morgan State 31 20.7
67% 177 Tennessee - Martin 27 24.8, 197 Eastern Illinois 10 16.8
67% 146 Pennsylvania 17 32.8, 231 Brown 7 21.3
67% 82 Northern Illinois 30 28.4, 127 Eastern Michigan 27 18.9
67% 38 Iowa 17 24.2, 66 Minnesota 10 15.5
66% 164 Liberty 33 30.4, 219 Gardner - Webb 17 22.4
66% 135 North Texas 45 38.3, 184 Old Dominion 38 30.6
66% 122 Central Arkansas 47 28.1, 153 McNeese State 17 20.3
66% 117 Duquesne 37 34.9, 171 Sacred Heart 21 29.2
66% 63 South Carolina 34 23.4, 89 Vanderbilt 27 16.1
66% 60 Oregon 41 32.1, 67 Utah 20 25.9
66% 5 Oklahoma State 50 40.2, 26 West Virginia 39 32.2
65% 243 Jackson State 24 30.6, 246 Mississippi Valley Sta 5 25.3
65% 192 Eastern Kentucky 26 28.3, 222 Murray State 13 24.5
65% 142 Harvard 25 25.0, 129 Dartmouth 22 19.5
65% 76 Pittsburgh 31 32.0, 87 Virginia 14 27.3
65% 3 Ohio State 39 30.5, 2 Penn State 38 24.3
64% 230 Alabama State 21 23.8, 232 Alabama A&M 16 19.8
64% 187 North Dakota 48 32.0, 217 Portland State 21 28.5
64% 95 Sam Houston State 33 46.4, 126 Southeast Louisiana 23 41.7
64% 93 Missouri 52 34.4, 183 Connecticut 12 28.2
64% 65 Boise State 41 34.0, 108 Utah State 14 29.3
63% 103 Monmouth 23 33.9, 143 Charleston Southern 20 30.7
63% 35 Southern California 48 31.2, 54 Arizona State 17 28.2
63% 34 Wake Forest 42 32.6, 39 Louisville 32 28.9
62% 161 Georgia State 21 23.5, 163 South Alabama 13 21.1
62% 84 Kentucky 29 27.0, 86 Tennessee 26 25.3
58% 156 Akron 21 25.9, 120 Buffalo 20 24.6
54% 144 Wyoming 42 24.3, 124 New Mexico 3 23.7
54% 50 Northwestern 39 22.0, 41 Michigan State 31 21.4
53% 238 Stephen F. Austin 34 27.9, 242 Lamar 7 27.4
50% 19 Mississippi State 35 32.8, 30 Texas A&M 14 32.9
48% 85 Furman 28 40.7, 110 Western Carolina 6 41.0
42% 74 Florida Atlantic 42 32.4, 145 Western Kentucky 28 33.6
40% 32 Arizona 58 35.1, 25 Washington State 37 36.4
38% 115 Weber State 41 26.7, 101 Montana 27 28.8
38% 47 South Dakota State 52 32.7, 44 Western Illinois 24 34.4
37% 211 Fordham 45 41.9, 170 Lehigh 35 44.3
37% 208 Missouri State 59 29.3, 198 Indiana State 20 31.5
37% 99 Stony Brook 27 29.4, 91 Richmond 24 32.1
37% 94 Colorado 44 23.8, 48 California 28 26.6
36% 138 Massachusetts 30 25.6, 107 Appalachian State 27 29.2
36% 71 Arkansas 38 36.0, 69 Mississippi 37 40.7
35% 218 Tennessee Tech 30 21.1, 174 Tennessee State 26 25.4
35% 214 Idaho 31 35.0, 159 Northeast Louisiana 23 39.5
35% 55 Boston College 35 20.5, 27 Florida State 3 25.8
34% 96 Maryland 42 29.6, 51 Indiana 39 34.9
34% 20 Iowa State 14 23.7, 11 Texas Christian 7 30.0
33% 220 Bryant 31 23.8, 205 Wagner 16 31.9
33% 206 Towson 18 13.6, 105 Delaware 17 22.9
33% 75 Air Force 45 31.3, 53 Colorado State 28 40.9
31% 90 Nebraska 25 20.9, 37 Purdue 24 32.0
25% 204 Howard 28 19.5, 190 South Carolina State 20 32.2
25% 88 Houston 28 22.6, 29 South Florida 24 35.5
24% 180 Alabama - Birmingham 30 23.3, 119 Southern Mississippi 12 34.9
21% 97 Illinois State 35 14.0, 36 Youngstown State 0 27.2
18% 237 Jacksonville 54 23.3, 189 Campbell 48 38.6
18% 196 Tennessee - Chattanoog 23 17.2, 116 Samford 21 30.8
13% 245 Savannah State 27 17.1, 215 Norfolk State 9 32.7
12% 147 Nevada - Las Vegas 26 22.7, 40 Fresno State 16 40.7
10% 167 Rhode Island 31 13.0, 111 Albany 14 28.6
10% 132 Elon 19 9.3, 45 Villanova 14 30.6
8% 193 Florida International 41 14.9, 77 Marshall 30 36.6
6% 239 Texas State - San Marc 27 19.4, 166 Coastal Carolina 7 40.9
4% 200 Cornell 29 17.3, 58 Princeton 28 45.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.05 48 0.96 14 0.95 25 0.92 19 0.85 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 79 85.0 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net