prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 102 Sam Houston State 57 61.7, 247 Incarnate Word 20 21.3
96% 74 Jacksonville State 59 40.7, 227 Murray State 23 8.5
96% 23 James Madison 38 43.8, 150 Rhode Island 3 18.9
95% 104 Central Arkansas 42 44.6, 249 Lamar 14 13.1
95% 69 San Diego State 52 39.4, 216 San Jose State 7 11.5
95% 65 Youngstown State 66 39.4, 213 Indiana State 24 12.8
95% 53 Yale 34 39.6, 234 Brown 7 8.8
94% 186 Nicholls State 23 38.7, 254 Houston Baptist 17 6.2
94% 121 San Diego 45 36.8, 233 Drake 15 10.4
94% 106 Monmouth 42 39.4, 237 Presbyterian 21 12.5
94% 98 Troy State 24 38.2, 208 Idaho 21 15.0
94% 14 Mississippi State 34 45.4, 132 Massachusetts 23 17.9
93% 182 Tennessee State 60 37.8, 254 Houston Baptist 0 3.2
93% 175 Bethune - Cookman 41 35.3, 241 Morgan State 28 13.1
92% 196 Campbell 42 37.6, 253 Davidson 29 16.3
92% 140 Grambling 31 45.9, 243 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 26 19.3
92% 91 North Carolina A&T 35 37.4, 231 Norfolk State 7 13.9
92% 50 California 37 43.7, 161 Oregon State 23 22.1
92% 35 South Florida 37 45.8, 212 Connecticut 20 18.5
92% 1 Alabama 24 36.7, 29 Louisiana State 10 10.2
91% 164 California Poly 35 39.4, 218 Portland State 28 23.2
91% 76 Houston 52 40.1, 174 East Carolina 27 17.1
91% 5 Notre Dame 48 38.6, 31 Wake Forest 37 20.2
91% 4 Georgia 24 35.7, 54 South Carolina 10 11.8
90% 202 Dayton 36 30.2, 240 Marist 17 16.1
90% 180 Alcorn State 47 35.3, 235 Alabama A&M 22 18.4
90% 57 Boise State 41 38.6, 134 Nevada - Reno 14 19.4
89% 37 Purdue 29 33.3, 142 Illinois 10 13.9
89% 12 Washington 38 37.1, 47 Oregon 3 20.3
88% 166 Alabama - Birmingham 52 37.4, 219 Rice 21 20.8
88% 119 Eastern Michigan 56 35.2, 220 Ball State 14 15.2
87% 172 Middle Tennessee State 30 31.6, 224 Texas - El Paso 3 15.9
87% 131 Dartmouth 10 31.0, 189 Cornell 0 17.0
87% 82 Arkansas 39 45.2, 200 Coastal Carolina 38 23.9
86% 43 Toledo 27 39.5, 86 Northern Illinois 17 28.3
85% 95 Southern Utah 47 36.9, 176 North Dakota 21 21.2
84% 117 Baylor 38 39.1, 198 Kansas 9 25.7
83% 60 Fresno State 20 30.7, 169 Brigham Young 13 13.0
82% 211 East Tennessee State 24 28.4, 251 Virginia Military 6 12.9
82% 11 Central Florida 31 46.1, 64 Southern Methodist 24 32.8
81% 26 Michigan 33 27.5, 80 Minnesota 10 13.1
79% 6 Clemson 38 31.0, 28 North Carolina State 31 19.0
78% 144 New Mexico State 45 35.6, 225 Texas State - San Marc 35 24.2
78% 94 Tennessee 24 29.6, 153 Southern Mississippi 10 17.0
77% 187 Old Dominion 6 33.0, 238 North Carolina - Charl 0 19.4
76% 205 Butler 23 31.7, 250 Stetson 6 19.4
75% 90 Ohio 45 38.8, 159 Miami - Ohio 28 25.3
75% 8 Auburn 42 34.3, 38 Texas A&M 27 23.2
74% 118 Nevada - Las Vegas 31 39.4, 177 Hawaii 23 29.9
71% 112 Elon 33 26.0, 195 Towson 30 13.8
70% 15 Wisconsin 45 30.8, 49 Indiana 17 21.4
69% 147 Charleston Southern 10 29.3, 223 Gardner - Webb 9 18.2
69% 146 Wofford 24 27.2, 183 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 17.6
68% 217 Wagner 27 23.2, 239 Robert Morris 7 12.7
68% 145 Sacramento State 50 41.1, 190 Northern Colorado 21 30.7
68% 13 Texas Christian 24 28.4, 21 Texas 7 18.0
67% 96 Vanderbilt 31 31.9, 156 Western Kentucky 17 21.3
67% 87 Stony Brook 28 23.7, 135 Albany 21 13.6
67% 44 Memphis 41 46.8, 114 Tulsa 14 39.9
66% 209 Northwestern State 26 27.8, 229 Abilene Christian 23 20.6
66% 139 Austin Peay 35 30.3, 214 Tennessee Tech 28 22.7
66% 127 California - Davis 56 38.3, 173 Idaho State 17 31.7
66% 67 Florida Atlantic 30 37.2, 103 Marshall 25 29.9
66% 56 Florida State 27 30.6, 48 Syracuse 24 23.0
66% 25 Southern California 49 39.5, 24 Arizona 35 34.3
65% 167 Holy Cross 42 31.9, 210 Fordham 20 27.6
65% 68 Arizona State 41 29.7, 77 Colorado 30 24.7
64% 193 Southern 37 34.8, 194 Prairie View 31 31.8
63% 242 Savannah State 35 26.7, 245 Delaware State 21 25.1
63% 228 Alabama State 13 19.2, 244 Jackson State 3 15.7
63% 199 Eastern Illinois 23 27.2, 185 Eastern Kentucky 20 24.4
63% 158 McNeese State 13 33.2, 143 Southeast Louisiana 3 30.6
63% 128 Western Carolina 31 30.7, 171 The Citadel 19 27.7
62% 100 Montana 17 35.7, 62 Northern Arizona 15 33.7
62% 75 Utah 48 31.6, 40 California - Los Angel 17 29.9
61% 163 Georgia State 21 27.5, 197 Georgia Southern 17 25.4
61% 122 Utah State 24 29.1, 162 New Mexico 10 27.6
60% 226 Jacksonville 20 41.3, 221 Valparaiso 17 39.7
58% 42 Northwestern 31 27.7, 84 Nebraska 24 26.6
55% 165 Central Connecticut 28 25.2, 179 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 24.6
54% 129 New Hampshire 35 22.7, 152 William & Mary 16 22.2
53% 248 Texas Southern 38 28.8, 246 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 28.4
52% 27 West Virginia 20 31.5, 16 Iowa State 16 31.3
51% 130 Kennesaw State 16 24.1, 141 Montana State 14 23.8
48% 81 Mississippi 37 34.6, 88 Kentucky 34 34.9
47% 105 Rutgers 31 29.1, 89 Maryland 24 29.5
44% 191 North Carolina Central 14 22.1, 207 Hampton 6 22.8
42% 137 Harvard 21 22.8, 125 Columbia 14 24.1
42% 78 Missouri 45 29.7, 52 Florida 16 31.2
41% 203 Bowling Green 44 21.7, 222 Kent State 16 23.1
41% 33 Washington State 24 27.4, 20 Stanford 21 28.6
38% 192 Howard 37 31.0, 215 Florida A&M 26 32.8
38% 188 Lehigh 42 35.3, 201 Bucknell 21 37.0
37% 206 Bryant 48 31.1, 184 Sacred Heart 45 33.4
37% 170 Tennessee - Martin 16 18.1, 154 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 20.9
37% 22 Miami - Florida 28 22.7, 9 Virginia Tech 10 25.5
36% 230 Lafayette 7 18.6, 236 Georgetown 0 22.4
36% 149 Cincinnati 17 21.7, 138 Tulane 16 27.0
36% 111 Delaware 31 19.9, 72 Maine 17 23.7
36% 110 Wyoming 16 26.1, 73 Colorado State 13 30.5
36% 55 Western Illinois 31 25.3, 59 Illinois State 14 29.1
36% 30 South Dakota State 33 26.9, 17 North Dakota State 21 31.1
35% 133 Samford 20 24.8, 113 Mercer 3 29.8
35% 51 Northern Iowa 34 29.2, 19 South Dakota 29 35.0
34% 178 Louisiana - Lafayette 19 23.7, 160 South Alabama 14 31.2
34% 157 Liberty 27 29.0, 115 Duquesne 24 36.2
34% 155 Northeast Louisiana 52 29.6, 108 Appalachian State 45 37.9
34% 124 Temple 34 26.3, 46 Navy 26 31.3
34% 45 Kansas State 42 32.7, 34 Texas Tech 35 38.6
34% 10 Oklahoma 62 34.7, 7 Oklahoma State 52 40.4
33% 148 Pennsylvania 38 28.7, 71 Princeton 35 36.8
33% 107 Army 21 30.5, 58 Air Force 0 39.6
33% 101 Weber State 28 26.9, 85 Eastern Washington 20 34.7
32% 168 Florida International 14 18.9, 109 Texas - San Antonio 7 28.4
31% 136 North Texas 24 34.0, 116 Louisiana Tech 23 44.2
29% 93 Richmond 22 23.2, 61 Villanova 0 34.0
20% 126 Central Michigan 35 26.1, 83 Western Michigan 28 37.6
16% 36 Iowa 55 19.0, 2 Ohio State 24 34.6
14% 39 Michigan State 27 17.7, 3 Penn State 24 33.1
12% 99 Virginia 40 22.0, 18 Georgia Tech 36 35.4
6% 181 Missouri State 36 21.1, 92 Southern Illinois 28 42.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.84 52 0.83 11 1.08 19 0.98 26 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 121 84 90.1 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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