prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 171 Alcorn State 59 49.1, 249 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 18.7
97% 114 San Diego 63 46.0, 252 Davidson 7 10.9
97% 81 North Carolina A&T 36 47.4, 239 Savannah State 17 11.6
97% 22 Texas 42 47.0, 203 Kansas 27 7.9
96% 106 Central Arkansas 56 49.5, 247 Incarnate Word 10 17.3
96% 78 Northern Illinois 63 43.0, 226 Ball State 17 13.2
96% 39 Texas A&M 55 40.9, 183 New Mexico 14 16.0
96% 14 Central Florida 49 50.2, 204 Connecticut 24 9.6
96% 3 Penn State 35 43.2, 105 Rutgers 6 9.7
95% 148 Wofford 45 34.1, 251 Virginia Military 14 9.7
95% 110 Montana 44 46.8, 197 Northern Colorado 14 24.0
95% 99 Western Michigan 48 40.2, 238 Kent State 20 11.8
94% 119 Samford 42 35.8, 211 East Tennessee State 7 12.9
94% 30 Arizona 49 52.3, 150 Oregon State 28 28.0
93% 7 Clemson 31 33.8, 56 Florida State 14 11.4
92% 44 Western Illinois 45 49.2, 212 Indiana State 0 21.5
91% 113 Sam Houston State 44 43.3, 224 Abilene Christian 35 22.8
91% 104 Monmouth 41 39.2, 220 Gardner - Webb 14 15.9
91% 73 Mississippi 50 47.0, 175 Louisiana - Lafayette 22 26.1
90% 132 North Texas 45 42.0, 230 Texas - El Paso 10 22.1
90% 115 Appalachian State 27 39.2, 200 Georgia Southern 6 19.1
90% 100 Weber State 63 38.6, 215 Portland State 17 18.7
90% 77 Stony Brook 38 35.6, 208 Wagner 10 13.1
90% 19 James Madison 20 41.9, 58 Richmond 13 24.0
90% 6 Ohio State 48 38.7, 32 Michigan State 3 18.7
89% 198 Prairie View 35 43.7, 240 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 12 24.5
89% 149 Nevada - Reno 59 41.6, 225 San Jose State 14 23.2
88% 243 Marist 38 40.5, 253 Morehead State 31 26.5
88% 160 Liberty 47 33.1, 227 Presbyterian 28 15.6
88% 144 Dartmouth 33 27.4, 228 Brown 10 9.9
88% 79 Furman 56 35.7, 180 The Citadel 20 19.8
88% 42 Northern Iowa 25 39.8, 158 Missouri State 10 22.5
88% 33 Louisiana State 33 38.9, 103 Arkansas 10 21.2
87% 165 McNeese State 44 31.9, 214 Northwestern State 24 14.2
85% 194 Southern 33 36.4, 245 Texas Southern 7 22.4
85% 153 Southern Mississippi 43 31.1, 223 Rice 34 16.3
85% 72 Fresno State 31 35.1, 186 Hawaii 21 20.6
85% 21 South Dakota State 27 34.8, 68 Illinois State 24 21.2
84% 54 Northern Arizona 37 32.3, 147 Montana State 36 17.6
84% 28 Michigan 35 35.8, 92 Maryland 10 23.2
83% 122 Colgate 27 26.8, 229 Lafayette 0 12.6
79% 69 Jacksonville State 14 27.3, 172 Tennessee - Martin 7 14.4
79% 1 Alabama 31 31.5, 16 Mississippi State 24 18.7
78% 47 Louisville 38 41.5, 85 Virginia 21 29.5
76% 162 Georgia State 33 28.6, 218 Texas State - San Marc 30 17.8
75% 231 Jacksonville 13 36.0, 250 Stetson 10 23.6
75% 94 Eastern Washington 21 41.1, 174 North Dakota 14 30.5
73% 135 Buffalo 38 36.0, 187 Bowling Green 28 25.0
73% 35 Texas Tech 38 42.6, 108 Baylor 24 32.2
71% 185 Howard 28 34.6, 235 Norfolk State 24 23.5
71% 13 Wisconsin 38 27.9, 20 Iowa 14 17.3
70% 63 Indiana 24 31.0, 131 Illinois 14 22.1
68% 23 Southern California 38 32.6, 82 Colorado 24 23.7
67% 155 Grambling 24 26.4, 221 Alabama State 7 16.5
67% 134 Columbia 18 26.1, 192 Cornell 8 19.0
67% 96 Marshall 30 33.4, 163 Western Kentucky 23 24.6
67% 93 Delaware 22 21.8, 136 Albany 3 12.5
67% 50 Missouri 50 36.3, 90 Tennessee 17 28.9
67% 41 South Carolina 28 26.7, 89 Florida 20 16.0
67% 18 North Dakota State 49 33.3, 26 South Dakota 14 23.7
67% 8 Oklahoma 38 34.7, 12 Texas Christian 20 27.2
66% 248 Lamar 23 29.3, 254 Houston Baptist 16 20.4
66% 217 Bucknell 12 21.5, 241 Georgetown 0 13.4
66% 205 South Carolina State 33 19.3, 213 Hampton 15 12.1
66% 169 Middle Tennessee State 35 25.1, 236 North Carolina - Charl 21 15.5
66% 126 Kennesaw State 38 28.1, 168 Charleston Southern 0 19.4
66% 117 Troy State 42 31.4, 178 Coastal Carolina 17 23.8
66% 112 New Hampshire 16 31.3, 120 Elon 6 23.1
66% 57 Youngstown State 28 29.3, 111 Southern Illinois 20 22.9
65% 201 Bryant 42 27.2, 242 Robert Morris 17 21.8
65% 154 Tennessee State 23 26.9, 161 Southeast Missouri Sta 20 21.9
65% 80 Minnesota 54 27.3, 83 Nebraska 21 22.2
65% 67 Navy 43 39.9, 53 Southern Methodist 40 36.3
65% 9 Oklahoma State 49 33.0, 15 Iowa State 42 28.3
64% 138 Tulane 31 35.9, 173 East Carolina 24 30.5
64% 109 Temple 35 25.4, 143 Cincinnati 24 21.9
64% 60 California - Los Angel 44 39.2, 55 Arizona State 37 35.7
64% 48 Boise State 59 30.9, 86 Colorado State 52 27.4
64% 37 Northwestern 23 25.4, 46 Purdue 13 21.6
64% 5 Auburn 40 26.5, 2 Georgia 17 22.2
63% 207 Nicholls State 34 27.5, 232 Stephen F. Austin 13 24.7
62% 65 Florida Atlantic 48 36.4, 129 Louisiana Tech 23 34.5
60% 27 North Carolina State 17 26.2, 36 Boston College 14 24.7
56% 29 Wake Forest 64 30.6, 40 Syracuse 43 29.8
55% 177 Lehigh 34 41.7, 166 Holy Cross 21 41.0
54% 140 Austin Peay 31 29.5, 184 Eastern Kentucky 24 28.8
52% 51 Yale 35 31.0, 76 Princeton 31 30.7
51% 219 Murray State 31 25.4, 209 Tennessee Tech 21 25.3
51% 34 Washington State 33 25.6, 52 Utah 25 25.4
47% 127 Sacramento State 49 30.6, 167 California Poly 14 31.0
46% 123 Central Michigan 42 24.7, 98 Eastern Michigan 30 25.2
43% 101 Wyoming 28 28.1, 116 Air Force 14 29.5
42% 164 Miami - Ohio 24 23.9, 151 Akron 14 25.0
42% 88 Southern Utah 47 30.7, 97 California - Davis 27 31.8
41% 244 Delaware State 33 27.3, 233 Morgan State 30 28.7
40% 75 Army 21 22.0, 59 Duke 16 23.6
38% 91 Kentucky 44 25.9, 102 Vanderbilt 21 28.2
37% 179 Bethune - Cookman 13 21.8, 193 North Carolina Central 10 23.8
37% 125 Mercer 35 26.8, 121 Western Carolina 33 29.9
37% 31 West Virginia 28 31.1, 49 Kansas State 23 33.1
36% 152 Brigham Young 31 23.7, 128 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 27.4
36% 74 Ohio 38 38.0, 43 Toledo 10 41.8
36% 17 Miami - Florida 41 28.3, 4 Notre Dame 8 31.6
35% 188 Sacred Heart 16 21.6, 189 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 26.3
34% 246 Jackson State 10 17.4, 237 Alabama A&M 7 23.5
34% 191 Old Dominion 37 20.8, 157 Florida International 30 28.0
34% 181 Towson 26 15.3, 170 William & Mary 14 21.7
34% 141 Alabama - Birmingham 24 25.0, 137 Texas - San Antonio 19 30.3
34% 133 Pennsylvania 23 24.7, 130 Harvard 6 31.2
34% 95 North Carolina 34 24.9, 71 Pittsburgh 31 31.1
34% 25 Stanford 30 18.3, 10 Washington 22 23.2
34% 24 Georgia Tech 28 24.3, 11 Virginia Tech 22 28.8
33% 222 Valparaiso 36 25.3, 206 Butler 28 34.5
33% 118 Massachusetts 44 25.6, 84 Maine 31 34.2
28% 159 Rhode Island 20 14.2, 87 Villanova 6 26.7
26% 145 Central Connecticut 28 26.7, 124 Duquesne 27 38.9
25% 176 South Alabama 24 18.9, 66 Arkansas State 19 30.8
24% 234 Drake 45 20.4, 202 Campbell 10 31.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.91 51 0.96 14 0.95 21 1.14 20 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 118 89 87.5 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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