prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 117 Sam Houston State 53 58.6, 254 Houston Baptist 33 7.4
97% 97 Eastern Washington 59 53.2, 221 Portland State 33 24.4
97% 79 Arkansas State 30 43.8, 207 Texas State - San Marc 12 16.2
97% 48 Florida State 77 48.1, 241 Delaware State 6 7.3
97% 8 Clemson 61 44.2, 190 The Citadel 3 5.1
97% 5 Oklahoma 41 57.6, 197 Kansas 3 17.1
97% 3 Ohio State 52 48.9, 135 Illinois 14 10.0
97% 2 Auburn 42 59.2, 154 Northeast Louisiana 14 15.1
96% 94 San Diego 35 47.3, 242 Marist 7 12.1
96% 88 Colorado State 42 50.4, 230 San Jose State 14 19.6
96% 45 Northern Iowa 41 49.2, 227 Indiana State 3 11.7
96% 10 Miami - Florida 44 40.1, 87 Virginia 28 13.5
96% 1 Alabama 56 42.9, 124 Mercer 0 5.4
95% 78 Weber State 35 42.8, 188 Idaho State 7 18.6
95% 9 Notre Dame 24 45.4, 71 Navy 17 23.4
95% 6 Georgia 42 42.2, 83 Kentucky 13 14.8
95% 4 Penn State 56 46.3, 98 Nebraska 44 15.7
94% 52 Youngstown State 38 41.1, 163 Missouri State 10 15.5
93% 149 McNeese State 13 39.4, 248 Lamar 3 14.0
93% 100 Central Arkansas 34 40.9, 220 Abilene Christian 0 12.6
93% 14 Virginia Tech 20 38.0, 82 Pittsburgh 14 14.7
92% 57 Richmond 27 36.2, 182 William & Mary 20 15.0
92% 44 South Florida 27 47.0, 128 Tulsa 20 29.3
92% 11 Washington 33 31.6, 59 Utah 30 11.5
91% 168 Lehigh 38 41.9, 239 Lafayette 31 24.6
91% 131 Central Connecticut 42 38.0, 245 Robert Morris 14 11.5
91% 101 Central Michigan 42 33.8, 233 Kent State 23 13.4
91% 35 Boston College 39 36.3, 189 Connecticut 16 11.4
90% 133 Columbia 24 29.7, 224 Brown 6 9.8
90% 105 North Carolina A&T 24 32.6, 195 North Carolina Central 10 14.5
90% 65 Toledo 66 43.4, 178 Bowling Green 37 25.9
90% 51 Florida Atlantic 52 42.5, 164 Florida International 24 22.1
90% 38 Boise State 44 42.2, 127 Air Force 19 22.3
89% 225 Alabama State 16 32.9, 252 Mississippi Valley Sta 10 15.4
89% 26 James Madison 31 35.5, 130 Elon 3 15.7
89% 20 Stanford 17 35.2, 58 California 14 20.3
88% 159 Southern Mississippi 66 31.9, 226 North Carolina - Charl 21 12.7
88% 143 Louisiana Tech 42 35.4, 235 Texas - El Paso 21 18.7
88% 99 Colgate 35 29.2, 244 Georgetown 10 8.7
87% 125 Pennsylvania 29 32.2, 194 Cornell 22 17.6
87% 62 San Diego State 42 36.4, 132 Nevada - Reno 23 19.7
87% 40 Michigan State 17 36.8, 102 Maryland 7 21.2
86% 179 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 29.9, 222 East Tennessee State 3 15.5
86% 162 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 32.8, 219 Murray State 10 17.4
86% 77 Jacksonville State 36 34.6, 150 Tennessee State 6 18.2
86% 18 Central Florida 45 37.6, 103 Temple 19 22.4
85% 119 Utah State 38 38.0, 171 Hawaii 0 24.8
85% 53 Yale 24 32.7, 151 Harvard 3 15.5
84% 134 Buffalo 40 39.0, 232 Ball State 24 22.6
84% 16 Mississippi State 28 39.4, 115 Arkansas 21 25.0
83% 196 Prairie View 42 44.1, 247 Incarnate Word 28 26.0
83% 49 South Carolina 31 32.6, 155 Wofford 10 15.7
81% 39 Western Illinois 28 37.9, 112 Southern Illinois 14 23.6
80% 25 Louisiana State 30 29.5, 116 Tennessee 10 16.9
80% 23 Southern California 28 43.7, 64 California - Los Angel 23 30.7
80% 17 Iowa State 23 34.9, 108 Baylor 13 19.9
78% 61 Arizona State 40 38.5, 136 Oregon State 24 28.3
77% 12 North Dakota State 20 29.3, 55 Illinois State 7 16.2
74% 84 Florida 36 34.4, 139 Alabama - Birmingham 7 20.9
73% 216 Drake 52 33.6, 240 Jacksonville 7 22.8
73% 183 Old Dominion 24 34.1, 215 Rice 21 23.5
73% 148 Southeast Louisiana 21 36.3, 203 Nicholls State 17 23.9
72% 13 Wisconsin 24 27.3, 24 Michigan 10 17.2
70% 43 Memphis 66 46.6, 60 Southern Methodist 45 38.0
69% 176 Bethune - Cookman 29 29.1, 212 Florida A&M 24 19.8
67% 141 Austin Peay 28 32.0, 199 Eastern Illinois 13 23.2
67% 75 Northern Illinois 35 36.9, 92 Western Michigan 31 28.9
67% 66 Indiana 41 30.2, 91 Rutgers 0 22.2
67% 36 Northwestern 39 28.2, 69 Minnesota 0 19.5
67% 15 Texas Christian 27 35.7, 41 Texas Tech 3 27.4
66% 172 Tennessee - Martin 24 23.8, 210 Tennessee Tech 0 15.9
66% 160 Western Kentucky 41 28.2, 167 Middle Tennessee State 38 22.0
66% 104 Eastern Michigan 27 28.0, 158 Miami - Ohio 24 21.6
66% 42 Louisville 56 41.5, 46 Syracuse 10 34.9
66% 34 Missouri 45 39.2, 122 Vanderbilt 17 30.8
65% 251 Morehead State 21 38.4, 253 Davidson 14 33.5
65% 206 Fordham 20 26.8, 218 Bucknell 9 22.1
64% 217 Northwestern State 38 26.4, 236 Stephen F. Austin 21 22.3
64% 109 Kennesaw State 52 31.4, 113 Monmouth 21 27.5
64% 93 Sacramento State 52 36.8, 120 California - Davis 47 32.5
64% 37 Texas A&M 31 40.6, 70 Mississippi 24 37.5
64% 21 Wake Forest 30 32.6, 31 North Carolina State 24 28.6
63% 142 Nevada - Las Vegas 38 29.7, 198 New Mexico 35 27.3
63% 114 Villanova 28 17.4, 86 Delaware 7 14.9
63% 73 Southern Utah 48 32.1, 68 Northern Arizona 20 29.4
62% 110 North Carolina 65 31.3, 123 Western Carolina 10 29.0
62% 81 Stony Brook 20 27.0, 106 Maine 19 25.1
61% 166 Towson 29 24.7, 147 Rhode Island 10 23.0
59% 174 Eastern Kentucky 14 20.9, 200 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 19.4
56% 191 Charleston Southern 20 28.3, 161 Liberty 19 27.5
55% 56 Oregon 48 41.4, 28 Arizona 28 40.9
54% 214 Hampton 20 28.4, 185 Howard 17 27.8
53% 89 Massachusetts 16 27.2, 140 Brigham Young 10 26.8
52% 228 Norfolk State 45 26.2, 234 Morgan State 32 25.9
48% 229 Presbyterian 31 18.7, 223 Gardner - Webb 21 19.1
47% 181 Coastal Carolina 13 32.0, 193 Idaho 7 32.5
47% 22 South Dakota State 31 35.3, 32 South Dakota 28 35.7
44% 144 Texas - San Antonio 9 22.9, 95 Marshall 7 23.8
43% 246 Texas Southern 24 28.5, 238 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 29.6
41% 173 East Carolina 48 31.8, 157 Cincinnati 20 33.2
41% 80 Fresno State 13 19.4, 90 Wyoming 7 21.0
38% 187 Louisiana - Lafayette 47 33.3, 153 New Mexico State 34 34.9
37% 156 Albany 15 19.8, 111 New Hampshire 0 22.5
36% 211 Valparaiso 8 25.9, 205 Dayton 7 30.6
36% 204 Georgia Southern 52 21.9, 169 South Alabama 0 25.3
36% 201 Northern Colorado 42 28.2, 186 California Poly 0 30.7
36% 138 Montana State 31 25.9, 96 Montana 23 28.9
36% 118 Samford 26 28.1, 63 Furman 20 31.1
36% 29 Texas 28 26.8, 30 West Virginia 14 29.9
35% 137 Dartmouth 54 27.2, 76 Princeton 44 32.0
34% 126 North Texas 52 28.1, 74 Army 49 35.5
33% 231 Savannah State 34 17.6, 202 South Carolina State 10 28.0
33% 208 Wagner 28 23.2, 177 Sacred Heart 15 32.2
33% 145 Tulane 20 17.7, 67 Houston 17 27.8
33% 47 Purdue 24 17.2, 27 Iowa 15 26.2
31% 165 Akron 37 24.6, 54 Ohio 34 34.2
30% 192 Bryant 38 28.3, 129 Duquesne 29 37.8
30% 72 Duke 43 20.4, 19 Georgia Tech 20 29.2
12% 243 Jackson State 7 15.4, 146 Alcorn State 3 31.8
9% 50 Kansas State 45 25.3, 7 Oklahoma State 40 44.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.84 39 0.95 12 1.12 25 1.11 31 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 120 94 92.2 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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