prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 99 Appalachian State 63 38.7, 186 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 19.4
90% 42 Florida State 42 48.1, 128 Northeast Louisiana 10 24.7
89% 19 James Madison 26 35.7, 75 Stony Brook 7 18.0
87% 53 Toledo 45 37.6, 159 Akron 28 21.5
77% 39 Boise State 17 31.9, 65 Fresno State 14 19.2
75% 12 North Dakota State 38 33.5, 72 San Diego 3 17.7
73% 56 Florida Atlantic 41 49.6, 102 North Texas 17 36.0
66% 24 South Dakota State 37 32.2, 35 Northern Iowa 22 25.5
66% 13 Central Florida 62 45.9, 23 Memphis 55 38.7
66% 7 Clemson 38 26.7, 14 Miami - Florida 3 20.7
64% 177 Coastal Carolina 28 32.1, 157 Georgia Southern 17 28.9
64% 163 New Mexico State 22 28.1, 194 South Alabama 17 23.9
64% 5 Oklahoma 41 31.8, 11 Texas Christian 17 27.5
63% 148 Grambling 40 30.5, 158 Alcorn State 32 28.0
63% 6 Ohio State 27 30.4, 8 Wisconsin 21 28.2
42% 2 Georgia 28 24.4, 4 Auburn 7 25.6
37% 69 Weber State 30 23.6, 60 Southern Utah 13 26.4
36% 105 New Hampshire 21 20.1, 90 Central Arkansas 15 24.8
36% 85 Troy State 32 27.5, 80 Arkansas State 25 31.0
35% 199 Idaho 24 19.6, 174 Georgia State 10 25.3
35% 118 Sam Houston State 54 39.6, 46 South Dakota 42 44.9
35% 79 Kennesaw State 17 20.9, 64 Jacksonville State 7 28.0
35% 32 Southern California 31 23.2, 15 Stanford 28 29.0
34% 160 Florida International 63 27.6, 91 Massachusetts 45 33.4
34% 141 Wofford 28 27.5, 73 Furman 10 33.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 17 0.73 3 1.33 2 1.13 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 25 15 17.4 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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