prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
96% 11 North Dakota State 42 40.5, 134 Wofford 10 8.5
86% 23 South Dakota State 56 33.2, 95 New Hampshire 14 18.2
82% 19 James Madison 31 29.5, 60 Weber State 28 12.0
40% 98 Sam Houston State 34 34.0, 69 Kennesaw State 27 35.7
36% 80 Army 14 26.1, 61 Navy 13 29.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 1 0.00 0 0.00 2 1.19 1 1.05 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 5 3 3.9 0.77
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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