prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 11 North Dakota State 55 47.7, 94 Sam Houston State 13 22.3
89% 33 Florida State 42 36.5, 135 Southern Mississippi 13 18.1
87% 55 Florida Atlantic 50 38.6, 157 Akron 3 22.4
84% 24 Northwestern 24 33.6, 95 Kentucky 23 20.9
81% 6 Ohio State 24 39.5, 29 Southern California 7 27.6
73% 71 Ohio 41 39.2, 149 Alabama - Birmingham 6 29.1
70% 77 Troy State 50 39.0, 113 North Texas 30 29.4
67% 88 Temple 28 34.4, 130 Florida International 3 25.6
67% 62 Navy 49 30.8, 87 Virginia 7 22.9
66% 44 Duke 36 28.2, 84 Northern Illinois 14 22.2
65% 108 North Carolina A&T 21 29.9, 141 Grambling 14 25.4
65% 1 Alabama 24 25.5, 3 Clemson 6 20.9
64% 39 Kansas State 35 34.4, 57 California - Los Angel 17 30.3
64% 31 North Carolina State 52 33.2, 54 Arizona State 31 29.4
64% 23 Iowa 27 24.6, 30 Boston College 20 20.8
63% 9 Oklahoma State 30 33.3, 14 Virginia Tech 21 30.4
63% 5 Penn State 35 28.9, 10 Washington 28 26.5
62% 35 Texas 33 32.8, 36 Missouri 16 31.3
62% 13 Notre Dame 21 27.6, 22 Louisiana State 17 26.0
58% 8 Wisconsin 34 23.1, 18 Miami - Florida 24 22.0
57% 116 Wyoming 37 24.8, 101 Central Michigan 14 23.8
56% 51 South Florida 38 38.6, 46 Texas Tech 34 37.9
55% 12 Texas Christian 39 22.1, 17 Stanford 37 21.4
53% 42 Utah 30 31.0, 40 West Virginia 14 30.6
53% 28 Wake Forest 55 34.0, 43 Texas A&M 52 33.5
52% 2 Georgia 54 31.9, 4 Oklahoma 48 31.7
44% 47 Purdue 38 33.2, 50 Arizona 35 34.1
44% 27 Mississippi State 31 32.8, 19 Louisville 27 33.6
42% 41 Boise State 38 33.0, 32 Oregon 28 34.0
40% 69 Fresno State 33 19.1, 75 Houston 27 21.0
37% 38 Michigan State 42 23.9, 37 Washington State 17 26.2
36% 67 Army 42 21.0, 64 San Diego State 35 25.0
36% 26 Iowa State 21 33.8, 20 Memphis 20 37.2
35% 192 Georgia State 27 23.7, 161 Western Kentucky 17 28.5
35% 122 Louisiana Tech 51 35.4, 73 Southern Methodist 10 39.8
35% 110 Marshall 31 28.4, 86 Colorado State 28 32.6
34% 83 Appalachian State 34 29.3, 53 Toledo 0 34.6
33% 56 South Carolina 26 16.6, 25 Michigan 19 25.5
30% 16 Central Florida 34 26.3, 7 Auburn 27 36.8
25% 153 Middle Tennessee State 35 25.0, 89 Arkansas State 30 35.0
24% 163 New Mexico State 26 27.0, 102 Utah State 20 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.27 23 0.87 3 0.45 4 1.17 1 1.08 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 41 26 27.0 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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