15 Jan 2019: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2018 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

FBS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5  14  9.3  7.1 Clemson                 
  2  5  14  9.4  7.0 Alabama                 
  3  6  10  8.9  6.5 Georgia                 
  4 13  11 10.2  5.4 Oklahoma                
  5 13  10  9.6  5.8 Ohio State              
  6 26   9  8.4  6.6 Auburn                  
  7  7   9  8.1  6.9 Mississippi State       
  8 12   8  8.5  6.4 Michigan                
  9 17   8  8.8  6.1 Penn State              
 10 19   8  8.3  6.5 Iowa                    
 11 10   8  8.4  6.5 Notre Dame              
 12 20   8  9.0  5.8 Texas A&M               
 13 24   8  9.1  5.7 Missouri                
 14 23   8  9.1  5.7 West Virginia           
 15 15   8  7.9  6.8 Washington              
 16 23   8  9.1  5.7 Central Florida         
 17 16   8  8.4  6.3 Louisiana State         
 18 17   8  8.4  6.2 Florida                 
 19 42   7  9.2  5.4 Oklahoma State          
 20 37   7  9.0  5.5 Utah State              
 21 19   7  8.7  5.8 Washington State        
 22 20   7  8.3  6.2 Texas                   
 23 13   7  8.1  6.2 Utah                    
 24 18   6  8.5  5.9 Boise State             
 25 20   6  8.3  6.1 Stanford                
 26 16   6  8.5  5.8 North Carolina State    
 27 36   6  8.1  6.1 Wisconsin               
 28 50   6  7.8  6.4 Fresno State            
 29 47   6  8.7  5.4 Syracuse                
 30 33   6  7.9  6.2 Iowa State              
 31 30   6  7.8  6.3 Kentucky                
 32 53   5  7.8  6.2 Army                    
 33 23   5  8.0  6.0 Boston College          
 34 21   5  7.9  6.1 Appalachian State       
 35 44   5  7.6  6.5 Texas Christian         
 36 14   5  7.7  6.3 Miami - Florida         
 37 34   5  8.9  5.2 Texas Tech              
 38 51   5  8.2  5.7 Duke                    
 39 44   5  8.2  5.8 South Carolina          
 40 33   5  8.5  5.4 Georgia Tech            
 41 16   5  8.4  5.5 Oregon                  
 42 51   5  8.6  5.3 Ohio                    
 43 43   5  8.1  5.8 Pittsburgh              
 44 59   5  8.4  5.5 Purdue                  
 45 45   5  7.8  6.0 Northwestern            
 46 50   4  7.7  6.1 Virginia                
 47 29   5  8.4  5.4 Arizona State           
 48 36   5  9.0  4.8 Memphis                 
 49 69   4  8.8  4.9 Mississippi             
 50 42   4  7.7  6.0 Kansas State            
 51 51   4  8.0  5.7 Vanderbilt              
 52 48   4  8.0  5.7 Southern California     
 53 54   4  8.4  5.2 Wake Forest             
 54 37   4  7.8  5.8 Minnesota               
 55 34   4  8.2  5.4 Temple                  
 56 49   4  8.3  5.4 Virginia Tech           
 57 39   4  6.9  6.7 Michigan State          
 58 47   4  7.7  6.0 Cincinnati              
 59 55   4  8.4  5.2 Nebraska                
 60 44   3  8.1  5.4 Indiana                 
 61 58   3  7.9  5.6 Florida State           
 62 48   3  8.2  5.3 Baylor                  
 63 35   3  7.3  6.1 California              
 64 42   3  8.7  4.7 Toledo                  
 65 26   3  7.4  6.0 Brigham Young           
 66 50   3  8.1  5.3 Maryland                
 67 23   3  8.7  4.6 Houston                 
 68 38   3  8.4  4.9 Arizona                 
 69 45   3  8.0  5.3 Air Force               
 70 45   2  7.7  5.6 Colorado                
 71 63   2  7.7  5.5 Alabama - Birmingham    
 72 36   2  7.4  5.7 Troy State              
 73 55   2  8.1  5.1 California - Los Angeles
 74 52   2  7.5  5.7 Tennessee               
 75 69   2  8.2  5.0 Buffalo                 
 76 56   2  8.1  5.0 Florida Atlantic        
 77 58   2  7.9  5.2 North Texas             
 78 46   2  7.9  5.2 North Carolina          
 79 36   2  7.6  5.4 Georgia Southern        
 80 43   1  7.6  5.3 Arkansas State          
 81 66   1  7.5  5.5 Eastern Michigan        
 82 70   1  7.6  5.3 Miami - Ohio            
 83 56   1  7.7  5.2 Middle Tennessee State  
 84 38   1  7.5  5.5 Marshall                
 85 57   1  7.8  5.1 Florida International   
 86 54   1  7.7  5.2 Navy                    
 87 44   1  6.9  6.0 San Diego State         
 88 44   1  7.1  5.8 Northern Illinois       
 89 50   1  6.8  6.1 Wyoming                 
 90 66   1  7.6  5.2 Kansas                  
 91 54   1  7.6  5.2 Nevada - Reno           
 92 41   1  7.8  5.0 South Florida           
 93 51   1  7.3  5.5 Tulane                  
 94 61   1  7.5  5.3 Arkansas                
 95 45   0  8.0  4.6 Southern Methodist      
 96 41   0  7.2  5.4 Southern Mississippi    
 97 37   0  7.3  5.3 Louisiana Tech          
 98 39   0  8.0  4.5 Western Michigan        
 99 54   0  8.0  4.4 Louisiana - Lafayette   
100 61   0  7.9  4.5 Louisville              
101 56   0  8.0  4.3 Hawaii                  
102 69   0  7.7  4.5 Illinois                
103 40   0  7.2  5.0 Tulsa                   
104 35   0  7.7  4.4 Liberty                 
105 58  -1  7.8  4.3 Nevada - Las Vegas      
106 60  -1  7.5  4.6 Colorado State          
107 47  -1  7.0  5.1 Western Kentucky        
108 51  -1  7.9  4.1 Oregon State            
109 52  -1  7.5  4.6 Northeast Louisiana     
110 44  -1  7.3  4.7 Coastal Carolina        
111 48  -1  7.4  4.5 New Mexico              
112 40  -1  7.7  4.2 Old Dominion            
113 49  -1  6.7  5.2 Akron                   
114 34  -2  8.0  3.8 Massachusetts           
115 31  -2  7.4  4.5 East Carolina           
116 47  -2  6.6  5.3 Rutgers                 
117 42  -2  6.7  5.0 North Carolina - Charlot
118 32  -2  7.1  4.6 Georgia State           
119 37  -2  6.6  5.1 Central Michigan        
120 40  -2  7.1  4.6 Ball State              
121 44  -3  7.1  4.5 San Jose State          
122 42  -3  6.9  4.6 Kent State              
123 29  -3  7.0  4.4 South Alabama           
124 31  -3  7.2  4.2 Bowling Green           
125 29  -3  6.4  5.1 Texas - San Antonio     
126 28  -4  7.4  3.8 New Mexico State        
127 28  -4  6.6  4.7 Texas State - San Marcos
128 28  -4  6.7  4.3 Rice                    
129 19  -5  6.8  4.0 Connecticut             
130 22  -5  6.4  4.4 Texas - El Paso         

FCS:
rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  6  10  8.5  6.9 North Dakota State      
  2 15   8  9.0  5.7 South Dakota State      
  3 20   7  8.8  5.8 Princeton               
  4 19   7  8.1  6.3 James Madison           
  5 23   6  8.8  5.5 Eastern Washington      
  6 35   5  8.1  5.8 Kennesaw State          
  7 41   4  7.5  6.2 Dartmouth               
  8 38   4  7.1  6.5 Colgate                 
  9 33   3  7.7  5.8 Illinois State          
 10 36   3  8.3  5.1 California - Davis      
 11 46   3  7.3  6.1 Northern Iowa           
 12 47   3  8.1  5.2 Jacksonville State      
 13 41   3  7.3  6.1 Stony Brook             
 14 40   2  7.9  5.2 Samford                 
 15 35   2  7.2  5.8 Weber State             
 16 36   2  7.5  5.5 Western Illinois        
 17 38   2  7.7  5.2 Yale                    
 18 46   2  7.4  5.6 Harvard                 
 19 30   2  7.5  5.5 Maine                   
 20 38   1  7.3  5.7 Delaware                
 21 34   1  7.9  5.0 Towson                  
 22 58   1  7.1  5.7 Youngstown State        
 23 59   1  7.2  5.7 Villanova               
 24 56   1  7.3  5.5 Wofford                 
 25 48   1  6.9  5.9 New Hampshire           
 26 28   1  7.2  5.6 Elon                    
 27 44   1  7.9  4.9 Southeast Missouri State
 28 47   1  8.0  4.7 South Dakota            
 29 62   1  7.0  5.7 North Carolina A&T      
 30 21   0  7.8  4.9 Rhode Island            
 31 43   0  7.4  5.2 Furman                  
 32 50   0  7.8  4.8 Montana                 
 33 46   0  7.3  5.3 Montana State           
 34 38   0  7.9  4.6 Southern Illinois       
 35 20   0  7.7  4.8 Indiana State           
 36 81   0  7.7  4.7 San Diego               
 37 67   0  7.2  5.2 Nicholls State          
 38 57   0  7.5  4.7 Richmond                
 39 28   0  7.4  4.9 The Citadel             
 40 46   0  7.4  4.9 Mercer                  
 41 39   0  6.7  5.5 Pennsylvania            
 42 44   0  6.9  5.3 North Dakota            
 43 30  -1  7.3  4.9 Holy Cross              
 44 59  -1  7.2  4.9 Alcorn State            
 45 36  -1  7.8  4.3 Monmouth                
 46 43  -1  7.8  4.3 Idaho State             
 47 40  -1  6.8  5.2 Columbia                
 48 72  -1  6.9  5.2 Duquesne                
 49 32  -1  7.4  4.6 Austin Peay             
 50 80  -1  7.0  5.0 Central Arkansas        
 51 89  -1  7.2  4.7 Dayton                  
 52 39  -1  7.4  4.5 California Poly         
 53 54  -1  7.2  4.8 Southern                
 54 42  -1  6.9  5.0 East Tennessee State    
 55 56  -1  6.4  5.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 56 81  -1  7.4  4.5 Sam Houston State       
 57 60  -1  7.0  4.9 Sacred Heart            
 58 54  -1  7.2  4.6 Central Connecticut     
 59 36  -1  7.2  4.7 Northern Arizona        
 60 33  -2  7.1  4.7 Tennessee State         
 61 44  -2  6.9  4.9 Albany                  
 62 63  -2  7.4  4.5 Prairie View            
 63 37  -2  6.9  4.9 Tennessee - Martin      
 64 35  -2  7.1  4.7 Missouri State          
 65 25  -2  6.8  5.0 Cornell                 
 66 33  -2  7.1  4.6 Idaho                   
 67 55  -2  6.1  5.6 William & Mary          
 68 **  -2  6.4  5.4 Drake                   
 69 24  -3  7.7  3.8 Western Carolina        
 70 18  -3  7.5  4.1 Eastern Illinois        
 71 52  -3  7.0  4.6 Southern Utah           
 72 56  -3  7.6  3.9 Howard                  
 73 51  -3  7.0  4.5 Bethune - Cookman       
 74 48  -3  6.4  5.2 Charleston Southern     
 75 34  -3  7.1  4.3 Portland State          
 76 29  -3  7.0  4.4 Murray State            
 77 65  -3  6.7  4.7 Florida A&M             
 78 67  -3  6.0  5.5 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 79 25  -3  7.1  4.3 Northern Colorado       
 80 72  -3  7.4  3.9 Incarnate Word          
 81 89  -3  6.8  4.6 Abilene Christian       
 82 31  -4  7.1  4.2 Sacramento State        
 83 68  -4  6.6  4.7 Grambling               
 84 48  -4  6.1  5.2 South Carolina State    
 85 46  -4  6.5  4.8 Eastern Kentucky        
 86 54  -4  7.5  3.7 Bryant                  
 87 83  -4  6.2  5.1 McNeese State           
 88 79  -4  6.7  4.5 Lamar                   
 89 74  -4  6.1  5.2 Campbell                
 90 70  -4  7.0  4.1 Southeast Louisiana     
 91 61  -5  6.9  4.1 Northwestern State      
 92 35  -5  7.0  4.0 Lehigh                  
 93 **  -5  7.2  3.7 North Alabama           
 94 65  -5  6.3  4.7 Alabama A&M             
 95 24  -5  6.3  4.6 North Carolina Central  
 96 51  -5  6.3  4.6 Fordham                 
 97 32  -5  6.9  3.9 Wagner                  
 98 80  -5  6.4  4.5 Marist                  
 99 24  -6  6.3  4.5 Morgan State            
100 31  -5  5.8  5.0 Georgetown              
101 24  -6  6.1  4.6 Savannah State          
102 22  -6  6.1  4.6 Norfolk State           
103 29  -6  6.1  4.6 Brown                   
104 24  -6  6.5  4.0 Hampton                 
105 86  -6  6.4  4.1 Stetson                 
106 65  -6  6.6  3.9 Valparaiso              
107 19  -6  6.2  4.3 Gardner - Webb          
108 30  -6  5.8  4.8 Bucknell                
109 30  -6  5.7  4.8 Lafayette               
110 59  -7  6.1  4.3 Butler                  
111 12  -7  6.4  3.9 Tennessee Tech          
112 53  -7  5.3  5.2 Jackson State           
113 13  -7  6.9  3.3 Virginia Military       
114 48  -7  6.1  4.3 Stephen F. Austin       
115 18  -8  6.4  3.8 Robert Morris           
116 61  -8  6.9  3.2 Davidson                
117 13  -8  6.1  4.0 Delaware State          
118 17  -8  5.7  4.4 Presbyterian            
119 48  -9  6.4  3.5 Jacksonville            
120 27  -8  5.8  4.2 Alabama State           
121 27 -10  6.5  3.1 Morehead State          
122 17  -9  5.6  4.1 Texas Southern          
123  7 -10  6.5  3.0 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
124  7 -11  6.1  3.1 Mississippi Valley State
125  7 -13  5.8  2.8 Houston Baptist         

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net