15 Jan 2019: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2018 season

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  5  15  9.6  7.3 Clemson                  129 48   0  7.9  4.7 South Dakota            
  2  5  13  9.4  6.8 Alabama                  130 49   0  7.8  4.7 Montana                 
  3  6  12  8.8  7.0 North Dakota State       131 65   0  7.3  5.2 Nicholls State          
  4  6  10  9.0  6.4 Georgia                  132 37   0  7.5  4.9 South Florida           
  5 14  11 10.2  5.2 Oklahoma                 133 26   0  7.5  4.9 The Citadel             
  6 13  10  9.7  5.6 Ohio State               134 34   0  7.1  5.3 Louisiana Tech          
  7  7   9  8.1  7.1 Mississippi State        135 37   0  8.0  4.4 Southern Illinois       
  8 19   9  8.5  6.7 Auburn                   136 37   0  8.0  4.4 Western Michigan        
  9 22   9  9.2  5.9 Texas A&M                137 56   0  7.0  5.3 Duquesne                
 10 15   9  8.7  6.3 Florida                  138 73   0  7.8  4.4 Illinois                
 11 25   9  9.1  5.9 Missouri                 139 44   0  7.4  4.8 Mercer                  
 12 18   8  8.4  6.5 Iowa                     140 52   0  7.3  4.9 Alcorn State            
 13 13   8  8.9  6.0 Princeton                141 40   0  6.9  5.3 North Dakota            
 14 39   8  9.2  5.7 Utah State               142 44   0  7.8  4.3 Idaho State             
 15 28   8  9.1  5.7 West Virginia            143 66   0  7.5  4.6 Colorado State          
 16 10   8  8.2  6.6 Notre Dame               144 30   0  7.3  4.9 Holy Cross              
 17 12   8  8.5  6.3 Michigan                 145 49   0  7.8  4.3 Hawaii                  
 18 14   8  9.0  5.8 South Dakota State       146 84   0  7.7  4.4 San Diego               
 19 13   8  8.5  6.2 Louisiana State          147 39   0  7.1  5.1 East Tennessee State    
 20 18   8  9.1  5.6 Eastern Washington       148 38  -1  7.8  4.3 Liberty                 
 21 11   8  8.6  6.1 Penn State               149 59  -1  7.4  4.7 Richmond                
 22 22   8  9.0  5.6 Central Florida          150 54  -1  7.4  4.7 Northeast Louisiana     
 23 16   7  7.8  6.8 Washington               151 40  -1  6.5  5.6 Pennsylvania            
 24 18   7  8.8  5.8 Washington State         152 57  -1  7.8  4.3 Nevada - Las Vegas      
 25 19   7  8.3  6.2 Texas                    153 37  -1  7.8  4.2 Monmouth                
 26 39   7  9.2  5.3 Oklahoma State           154 49  -1  8.0  4.1 Oregon State            
 27 20   7  8.5  6.0 Boise State              155 46  -1  7.0  5.1 Western Kentucky        
 28 52   6  7.8  6.5 Fresno State             156 55  -1  7.7  4.3 Louisville              
 29 13   6  8.1  6.2 Utah                     157 30  -1  7.0  5.0 Tulsa                   
 30 49   7  8.8  5.6 Syracuse                 158 86  -1  7.3  4.7 Dayton                  
 31 24   6  8.1  6.2 James Madison            159 38  -1  7.6  4.4 California Poly         
 32 52   6  7.9  6.4 Army                     160 42  -1  7.7  4.2 Old Dominion            
 33 29   6  7.8  6.4 Kentucky                 161 52  -1  7.2  4.8 Southern                
 34 16   6  8.2  6.0 Stanford                 162 32  -1  7.4  4.6 Austin Peay             
 35 54   6  8.6  5.6 Ohio                     163 53  -1  6.8  5.1 North Carolina - Charlot
 36 21   6  8.0  6.2 Appalachian State        164 45  -1  6.8  5.1 Columbia                
 37 13   6  8.5  5.7 North Carolina State     165 47  -1  7.4  4.5 New Mexico              
 38 35   6  8.1  6.0 Wisconsin                166 42  -1  7.2  4.7 Coastal Carolina        
 39 22   5  8.0  6.1 Boston College           167 59  -1  7.0  4.9 Sacred Heart            
 40 60   5  7.7  6.3 Virginia                 168 55  -1  6.3  5.6 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 41 29   5  7.9  6.1 Iowa State               169 37  -2  8.0  3.8 Massachusetts           
 42 29   5  7.6  6.4 Dartmouth                170 60  -2  7.4  4.5 Prairie View            
 43 47   5  8.0  6.0 Pittsburgh               171 57  -2  7.3  4.6 Central Connecticut     
 44 34   5  8.8  5.2 Texas Tech               172 31  -2  7.1  4.7 Tennessee State         
 45 32   5  8.1  5.8 Kennesaw State           173 42  -2  7.0  4.8 Albany                  
 46 15   5  8.3  5.6 Oregon                   174 36  -2  7.2  4.6 Northern Arizona        
 47 50   5  7.8  6.1 Cincinnati               175 86  -2  6.9  5.0 Central Arkansas        
 48 41   5  8.2  5.7 South Carolina           176 30  -2  7.3  4.5 East Carolina           
 49 42   5  8.0  5.9 Minnesota                177 96  -2  6.4  5.5 Drake                   
 50 58   5  8.2  5.7 Vanderbilt               178 46  -2  6.6  5.3 Akron                   
 51 49   5  8.3  5.6 Duke                     179 23  -2  6.9  4.9 Cornell                 
 52 29   5  8.5  5.4 Arizona State            180 54  -2  7.1  4.6 San Jose State          
 53 37   5  7.4  6.5 Texas Christian          181 43  -2  6.5  5.3 Rutgers                 
 54 39   5  7.7  6.1 Northwestern             182 44  -2  7.2  4.6 Ball State              
 55 30   4  7.2  6.6 Colgate                  183 41  -2  6.9  4.8 Tennessee - Martin      
 56 40   4  8.4  5.4 Georgia Tech             184 30  -2  7.2  4.5 Georgia State           
 57 49   4  8.4  5.3 Wake Forest              185 35  -2  7.0  4.7 Missouri State          
 58 18   4  7.4  6.4 Miami - Florida          186 34  -2  7.1  4.5 Idaho                   
 59 60   4  8.5  5.3 Purdue                   187 57  -2  6.1  5.7 William & Mary          
 60 68   4  8.8  4.9 Mississippi              188 18  -2  7.5  4.0 Eastern Illinois        
 61 58   4  8.4  5.3 Nebraska                 189 35  -2  7.1  4.5 Portland State          
 62 38   4  7.7  6.0 Kansas State             190 66  -3  7.5  4.0 Incarnate Word          
 63 36   4  8.9  4.9 Memphis                  191 96  -3  7.1  4.5 Sam Houston State       
 64 31   4  7.6  6.1 Brigham Young            192 46  -3  7.0  4.6 Kent State              
 65 35   4  8.3  5.3 Temple                   193 57  -3  7.6  3.9 Howard                  
 66 34   4  8.4  5.2 California - Davis       194 32  -3  6.4  5.1 Central Michigan        
 67 50   4  8.3  5.3 Baylor                   195 31  -3  7.1  4.4 Murray State            
 68 45   4  7.9  5.7 Southern California      196 63  -3  6.7  4.8 Florida A&M             
 69 34   4  7.8  5.8 Illinois State           197 54  -3  7.0  4.4 Bethune - Cookman       
 70 47   3  8.8  4.7 Toledo                   198 32  -3  7.2  4.3 Bowling Green           
 71 41   3  8.1  5.4 Indiana                  199 88  -3  6.8  4.7 Abilene Christian       
 72 52   3  8.2  5.3 Maryland                 200 74  -3  6.8  4.6 Lamar                   
 73 42   3  6.5  6.9 Michigan State           201 25  -3  7.7  3.7 Western Carolina        
 74 44   3  8.4  5.1 Virginia Tech            202 27  -3  7.1  4.3 South Alabama           
 75 67   3  7.9  5.6 Alabama - Birmingham     203 24  -3  7.1  4.2 Northern Colorado       
 76 35   3  7.2  6.2 California               204 31  -4  7.4  3.9 New Mexico State        
 77 40   3  7.2  6.1 Stony Brook              205 33  -3  6.5  4.9 Texas State - San Marcos
 78 49   3  8.0  5.4 Air Force                206 49  -3  6.2  5.2 South Carolina State    
 79 56   3  7.9  5.5 Florida State            207 71  -3  5.9  5.5 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
 80 37   3  8.4  4.9 Arizona                  208 52  -3  6.2  5.2 Charleston Southern     
 81 45   2  8.2  5.0 Jacksonville State       209 54  -4  6.8  4.4 Southern Utah           
 82 72   2  8.3  4.9 Buffalo                  210 25  -4  6.3  5.0 Texas - San Antonio     
 83 42   2  7.7  5.5 Georgia Southern         211 46  -4  6.4  4.8 Eastern Kentucky        
 84 50   2  7.1  6.1 Northern Iowa            212 70  -4  6.6  4.6 Grambling               
 85 38   2  7.6  5.6 Harvard                  213 31  -4  6.7  4.4 Rice                    
 86 37   2  7.4  5.8 Troy State               214 71  -4  5.9  5.3 Campbell                
 87 40   2  8.0  5.2 Samford                  215 56  -4  7.5  3.5 Bryant                  
 88 26   2  7.6  5.6 Maine                    216 31  -4  7.0  4.1 Sacramento State        
 89 52   2  7.4  5.7 Tennessee                217 **  -5  7.2  3.8 North Alabama           
 90 22   2  8.8  4.3 Houston                  218 61  -4  6.3  4.8 Alabama A&M             
 91 42   2  7.6  5.5 Colorado                 219 83  -4  6.1  5.0 McNeese State           
 92 50   2  8.0  5.1 California - Los Angeles 220 61  -5  7.0  4.0 Northwestern State      
 93 74   2  7.8  5.3 Miami - Ohio             221 79  -5  6.4  4.6 Marist                  
 94 54   2  8.1  5.0 Florida Atlantic         222 73  -5  6.9  4.0 Southeast Louisiana     
 95 61   2  7.9  5.2 Middle Tennessee State   223 35  -5  6.8  4.0 Lehigh                  
 96 63   2  7.9  5.1 Florida International    224 26  -5  6.5  4.4 Texas - El Paso         
 97 56   2  6.9  6.1 Wyoming                  225 31  -6  7.0  3.7 Wagner                  
 98 44   2  7.6  5.5 Arkansas State           226 29  -5  5.9  5.0 Georgetown              
 99 75   2  7.7  5.3 Kansas                   227 51  -5  6.2  4.7 Fordham                 
100 33   2  8.0  4.9 Towson                   228 84  -6  6.7  4.0 Stetson                 
101 67   2  7.5  5.5 Eastern Michigan         229 25  -5  6.2  4.6 Morgan State            
102 39   2  7.2  5.8 Weber State              230 28  -5  6.3  4.5 North Carolina Central  
103 38   2  7.9  5.1 North Carolina           231 25  -5  6.1  4.7 Savannah State          
104 52   1  7.8  5.2 North Texas              232 16  -6  6.8  3.9 Connecticut             
105 36   1  7.4  5.5 Marshall                 233 24  -6  6.1  4.6 Norfolk State           
106 44   1  7.3  5.7 Delaware                 234 28  -6  6.1  4.5 Brown                   
107 40   1  7.4  5.5 Western Illinois         235 25  -7  6.6  3.9 Hampton                 
108 42   1  7.8  5.0 Yale                     236 18  -6  6.3  4.2 Gardner - Webb          
109 59   1  7.6  5.3 Nevada - Reno            237 57  -7  7.3  3.1 Davidson                
110 39   1  8.0  4.8 Southeast Missouri State 238 66  -7  6.7  3.8 Valparaiso              
111 54   1  7.3  5.6 Wofford                  239 30  -6  5.7  4.8 Lafayette               
112 57   1  7.1  5.7 Youngstown State         240 50  -6  5.3  5.3 Jackson State           
113 55   1  7.3  5.5 Tulane                   241 31  -7  5.8  4.7 Bucknell                
114 47   1  6.9  5.9 New Hampshire            242 13  -7  7.0  3.2 Virginia Military       
115 21   1  7.9  4.9 Rhode Island             243 60  -7  6.1  4.2 Butler                  
116 49   1  7.6  5.2 Navy                     244 12  -8  6.4  3.8 Tennessee Tech          
117 27   1  7.2  5.6 Elon                     245 49  -7  6.0  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
118 38   1  6.9  5.9 Northern Illinois        246 19  -8  6.5  3.6 Robert Morris           
119 25   1  7.8  4.9 Indiana State            247 14  -8  6.0  4.2 Delaware State          
120 60   1  7.2  5.6 Villanova                248 47  -9  6.4  3.4 Jacksonville            
121 60   1  7.0  5.7 North Carolina A&T       249 17  -9  5.6  4.3 Presbyterian            
122 61   0  7.4  5.3 Arkansas                 250 26 -10  6.5  3.1 Morehead State          
123 44   0  7.2  5.5 Southern Mississippi     251 26  -9  5.8  3.9 Alabama State           
124 58   0  8.2  4.5 Louisiana - Lafayette    252 15 -10  5.5  4.1 Texas Southern          
125 37   0  6.6  6.0 San Diego State          253  7 -10  6.5  2.9 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
126 43   0  7.3  5.3 Montana State            254  7 -11  6.2  3.0 Mississippi Valley State
127 42   0  7.9  4.7 Southern Methodist       255  7 -14  5.7  2.7 Houston Baptist         
128 45   0  7.3  5.2 Furman                  

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net