prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 100 Jacksonville State 71 51.7, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 6.1
83% 109 Utah State 60 45.8, 240 New Mexico State 13 15.7
83% 33 Hawaii 43 62.6, 174 Rice 29 36.0
83% 17 Miami - Florida 77 54.3, 241 Savannah State 0 6.6
82% 38 Oregon 62 61.5, 231 Portland State 14 21.3
79% 14 Notre Dame 24 53.8, 208 Ball State 16 12.8
78% 2 Ohio State 52 50.6, 130 Rutgers 3 9.4
75% 8 Oklahoma State 55 51.9, 178 South Alabama 13 15.0
74% 1 Alabama 57 49.1, 88 Arkansas State 7 12.1
73% 46 Texas Tech 77 59.3, 244 Lamar 0 20.5
73% 40 Washington State 31 54.4, 217 San Jose State 0 17.6
73% 13 Central Florida 38 48.6, 213 South Carolina State 0 11.4
72% 43 Missouri 40 43.0, 148 Wyoming 13 21.3
72% 9 Washington 45 44.9, 168 North Dakota 3 10.2
71% 23 Louisville 31 56.7, 207 Indiana State 7 21.6
71% 3 Oklahoma 49 54.4, 64 California - Los Angel 21 26.3
70% 34 Boise State 62 45.9, 187 Connecticut 7 13.7
70% 7 Auburn 63 46.9, 225 Alabama State 9 8.1
69% 128 Wofford 59 40.3, 251 Virginia Military 14 8.3
69% 115 North Texas 58 55.1, 246 Incarnate Word 16 27.2
69% 10 Wisconsin 45 45.0, 157 New Mexico 14 11.8
68% 192 Saint Francis - Pennsy 45 35.0, 249 Delaware State 14 9.7
68% 112 Central Arkansas 26 41.2, 222 Murray State 13 16.1
68% 94 North Carolina A&T 45 36.0, 216 Gardner - Webb 6 12.2
68% 61 Appalachian State 45 39.5, 221 North Carolina - Charl 9 14.8
68% 56 South Dakota 43 47.7, 186 Northern Colorado 28 23.3
68% 28 North Carolina State 41 39.3, 167 Georgia State 7 12.7
68% 20 James Madison 17 47.1, 218 Norfolk State 0 14.5
68% 18 Louisiana State 31 42.6, 154 Southeast Louisiana 0 13.9
68% 15 Virginia Tech 62 36.1, 166 William & Mary 17 8.9
68% 11 Texas Christian 42 44.8, 106 Southern Methodist 12 23.2
67% 227 Duquesne 23 46.5, 229 Valparaiso 21 30.2
67% 201 Bethune - Cookman 79 40.0, 255 Houston Baptist 16 13.7
67% 165 McNeese State 51 38.9, 255 Houston Baptist 34 13.2
67% 159 Akron 41 41.4, 243 Morgan State 7 21.0
67% 133 Nevada - Las Vegas 52 40.3, 232 Texas - El Paso 24 19.8
67% 116 Delaware 37 33.6, 236 Lafayette 0 9.5
67% 98 Tennessee 59 40.3, 223 East Tennessee State 3 16.7
67% 90 Louisiana Tech 54 42.5, 196 Southern 17 27.0
67% 84 Troy State 59 41.2, 210 Florida A&M 7 21.1
67% 83 Illinois State 48 39.2, 200 Eastern Illinois 10 17.0
67% 81 Richmond 52 42.5, 203 Fordham 7 24.0
67% 47 Boston College 62 36.8, 175 Holy Cross 14 19.2
67% 36 Wake Forest 51 37.3, 160 Towson 20 19.4
67% 29 Texas 28 41.2, 102 Tulsa 21 22.5
67% 26 South Dakota State 45 44.1, 131 Montana State 14 21.8
67% 21 Michigan 49 39.9, 91 Western Michigan 3 21.9
66% 138 Mercer 45 44.0, 238 Jacksonville 3 26.5
66% 104 Kennesaw State 49 34.8, 211 Tennessee Tech 10 18.1
66% 99 Montana 48 41.6, 205 Drake 16 23.9
66% 68 Syracuse 62 42.7, 202 Wagner 10 26.2
66% 5 Penn State 51 40.9, 57 Pittsburgh 6 25.5
65% 143 Monmouth 56 37.4, 212 Hampton 28 25.0
65% 113 Stony Brook 50 37.7, 179 Bryant 21 26.0
65% 89 Weber State 24 32.1, 204 California Poly 17 18.3
65% 63 San Diego State 28 40.6, 124 Sacramento State 14 27.8
65% 35 Florida State 36 36.6, 114 Samford 26 22.3
65% 6 Georgia 41 31.7, 50 South Carolina 17 19.9
64% 110 Marshall 32 33.9, 181 Eastern Kentucky 16 23.7
64% 101 Maryland 45 41.0, 184 Bowling Green 14 31.5
64% 97 Sam Houston State 41 49.2, 107 Prairie View 32 43.8
64% 85 Villanova 31 36.8, 161 Lehigh 9 27.9
64% 51 Mississippi 76 40.8, 111 Southern Illinois 41 31.2
64% 49 Indiana 20 35.5, 93 Virginia 16 26.3
64% 42 Utah 17 32.0, 105 Northern Illinois 6 21.7
64% 4 Clemson 28 37.7, 32 Texas A&M 26 27.5
63% 180 Austin Peay 24 33.6, 230 Presbyterian 0 25.2
63% 155 Georgia Southern 34 41.6, 145 Massachusetts 13 37.4
63% 129 Tulane 42 30.4, 189 Nicholls State 17 22.8
63% 108 Maine 31 32.9, 144 Western Kentucky 28 26.3
63% 96 Vanderbilt 41 33.3, 121 Nevada - Reno 10 27.2
63% 80 Baylor 37 29.7, 137 Texas - San Antonio 20 22.3
63% 60 California 21 29.2, 135 Brigham Young 18 22.6
63% 39 West Virginia 52 31.9, 62 Youngstown State 17 25.5
62% 16 Stanford 17 31.5, 24 Southern California 3 26.0
60% 82 Army 38 33.4, 140 Liberty 14 28.8
60% 78 Eastern Washington 31 40.2, 120 Northern Arizona 26 35.9
59% 72 Florida Atlantic 33 37.0, 95 Air Force 27 33.5
58% 190 Sacred Heart 30 25.2, 224 Bucknell 14 21.8
58% 66 Houston 45 37.8, 55 Arizona 18 34.6
57% 158 Cincinnati 21 26.8, 151 Miami - Ohio 0 23.4
56% 156 Coastal Carolina 47 33.6, 147 Alabama - Birmingham 24 31.2
56% 25 Iowa 13 28.3, 27 Iowa State 3 25.1
55% 152 Florida International 28 30.9, 193 Old Dominion 20 28.7
55% 79 Minnesota 21 27.9, 67 Fresno State 14 25.5
54% 226 Texas State - San Marc 36 29.8, 245 Texas Southern 20 28.0
52% 45 South Florida 49 33.5, 30 Georgia Tech 38 32.9
51% 176 Southeast Missouri Sta 40 24.0, 199 Dayton 21 23.5
50% 234 North Alabama 25 52.5, 237 Alabama A&M 20 52.2
50% 19 Mississippi State 31 28.8, 37 Kansas State 10 29.0
49% 146 Middle Tennessee State 61 23.5, 164 Tennessee - Martin 37 23.9
49% 58 Arizona State 16 30.7, 41 Michigan State 13 30.9
48% 214 Campbell 13 26.1, 235 Georgetown 8 26.9
48% 209 Kent State 54 28.0, 206 Howard 14 28.8
48% 169 Rhode Island 45 22.1, 149 Albany 26 23.1
47% 70 Colorado 33 33.5, 87 Nebraska 28 35.2
46% 126 Colgate 10 21.3, 119 New Hampshire 3 23.3
44% 188 Tennessee - Chattanoog 29 22.0, 177 The Citadel 28 24.9
43% 48 Navy 22 39.2, 22 Memphis 21 42.3
42% 153 Elon 45 26.5, 103 Furman 7 29.8
38% 44 Duke 21 22.1, 31 Northwestern 7 27.8
37% 127 California - Davis 54 30.1, 92 San Diego 21 38.6
36% 163 Oregon State 48 28.7, 86 Southern Utah 25 39.0
36% 132 Buffalo 36 22.2, 74 Temple 29 32.6
35% 220 Northwestern State 34 22.6, 150 Grambling 7 35.7
35% 183 Kansas 31 25.4, 122 Central Michigan 7 37.0
35% 139 Northeast Louisiana 21 32.3, 118 Southern Mississippi 20 43.2
35% 136 Illinois 34 21.3, 59 Western Illinois 14 34.0
35% 117 Eastern Michigan 20 21.9, 53 Purdue 19 34.2
35% 75 Kentucky 27 20.9, 54 Florida 16 32.3
34% 171 East Carolina 41 27.6, 69 North Carolina 19 41.1
32% 195 Colorado State 34 25.8, 71 Arkansas 27 43.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
24 1.00 71 1.26 12 1.36 5 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 89 72.7 1.22
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net