prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 6 Georgia 49 47.8, 144 Middle Tennessee State 7 11.1
96% 31 Oregon 35 56.4, 220 San Jose State 22 15.0
95% 64 Tennessee 24 44.4, 232 Texas - El Paso 0 7.9
95% 33 Louisville 20 44.3, 146 Western Kentucky 17 21.7
95% 5 Clemson 38 48.2, 143 Georgia Southern 7 8.9
95% 4 Penn State 63 55.0, 205 Kent State 10 7.4
94% 25 Memphis 59 46.5, 182 Georgia State 22 18.3
94% 21 Texas A&M 48 51.2, 151 Northeast Louisiana 10 18.9
92% 154 Albany 30 38.2, 242 Morgan State 27 10.7
92% 75 Kentucky 48 42.7, 226 Murray State 10 16.5
92% 16 Michigan 45 52.6, 112 Southern Methodist 20 22.0
91% 29 James Madison 73 43.5, 237 Robert Morris 7 4.5
88% 166 New Mexico 42 43.2, 246 New Mexico State 25 22.8
88% 104 Western Michigan 68 45.5, 248 Delaware State 0 14.2
88% 49 Kansas State 41 32.4, 162 Texas - San Antonio 17 9.5
86% 102 Utah State 73 40.3, 223 Tennessee Tech 12 18.8
85% 127 Monmouth 24 38.0, 240 Lafayette 20 20.5
85% 91 Stony Brook 28 36.6, 211 Fordham 6 19.4
85% 20 Mississippi State 56 49.0, 185 Louisiana - Lafayette 10 15.4
84% 59 Indiana 38 40.5, 198 Ball State 10 18.9
84% 39 South Florida 25 40.0, 136 Illinois 19 22.9
83% 15 Stanford 30 39.0, 103 California - Davis 10 20.1
81% 56 Florida 48 37.7, 148 Colorado State 10 18.2
81% 13 North Dakota State 38 69.0, 234 North Alabama 7 23.6
80% 24 South Dakota State 90 64.8, 249 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 6 14.5
78% 14 Notre Dame 22 30.9, 76 Vanderbilt 17 13.6
74% 165 Austin Peay 78 43.0, 251 Morehead State 40 25.9
74% 67 Richmond 35 32.7, 186 Saint Francis - Pennsy 27 15.5
74% 1 Alabama 62 44.8, 45 Mississippi 7 24.3
73% 216 Abilene Christian 38 56.6, 255 Houston Baptist 13 26.9
73% 181 South Alabama 41 32.0, 219 Texas State - San Marc 31 17.7
70% 81 Minnesota 26 32.1, 175 Miami - Ohio 3 12.0
69% 62 California 45 48.9, 194 Idaho State 23 25.7
68% 164 McNeese State 20 31.6, 199 Nicholls State 10 17.3
68% 118 Pennsylvania 34 36.3, 222 Bucknell 17 15.0
68% 108 Northern Illinois 24 30.8, 149 Central Michigan 16 20.1
68% 87 Kennesaw State 62 37.6, 227 Alabama State 13 13.3
68% 73 Princeton 50 47.8, 228 Butler 7 24.3
68% 61 Navy 51 46.2, 171 Lehigh 21 31.4
67% 208 East Tennessee State 27 34.9, 252 Virginia Military 24 17.9
67% 189 Bryant 37 40.9, 236 Marist 27 26.8
67% 163 Alcorn State 27 42.1, 244 Texas Southern 15 19.8
67% 153 Florida International 63 39.0, 180 Massachusetts 24 31.0
67% 147 Cincinnati 63 34.6, 235 Alabama A&M 7 17.4
67% 121 Dartmouth 41 32.5, 233 Georgetown 0 11.7
67% 83 Florida Atlantic 49 36.7, 190 Bethune - Cookman 28 25.3
67% 68 Arizona 62 42.0, 126 Southern Utah 31 32.1
67% 58 Colorado 45 28.7, 132 New Hampshire 14 17.1
67% 8 Oklahoma State 44 44.8, 22 Boise State 21 35.7
66% 125 Youngstown State 42 38.2, 225 Valparaiso 7 24.4
66% 117 Central Arkansas 33 29.9, 172 Southeast Louisiana 25 22.1
66% 23 Iowa 38 26.8, 53 Northern Iowa 14 19.5
66% 9 Washington 21 26.5, 40 Utah 7 19.3
66% 3 Oklahoma 37 41.3, 28 Iowa State 27 28.3
65% 150 Coastal Carolina 58 36.6, 215 Campbell 21 27.7
65% 137 Nevada - Reno 37 40.1, 169 Oregon State 35 31.9
65% 111 Delaware 27 31.7, 191 Cornell 10 18.0
65% 41 Missouri 40 35.8, 66 Purdue 37 30.0
65% 2 Ohio State 40 33.8, 12 Texas Christian 28 25.9
64% 204 Northwestern State 49 34.9, 243 Lamar 48 25.7
64% 135 Montana State 47 33.2, 197 Wagner 24 24.8
64% 37 Washington State 59 40.1, 82 Eastern Washington 24 31.8
64% 35 Duke 40 31.9, 80 Baylor 27 27.4
64% 18 Miami - Florida 49 38.2, 65 Toledo 24 31.1
63% 138 Western Carolina 28 37.4, 217 Gardner - Webb 10 28.2
63% 79 Western Illinois 31 32.9, 88 Montana 27 30.8
61% 122 Sacramento State 28 38.7, 174 Northern Colorado 25 35.6
61% 48 Texas Tech 63 35.1, 52 Houston 49 32.3
59% 201 California Poly 44 27.7, 213 Brown 15 24.4
58% 115 Buffalo 35 30.2, 109 Eastern Michigan 28 28.8
56% 74 Army 28 38.8, 47 Hawaii 21 37.7
54% 140 Columbia 41 32.0, 160 Central Connecticut 24 30.3
54% 57 Syracuse 30 33.4, 43 Florida State 7 32.7
52% 38 Texas 37 25.8, 26 Southern California 14 25.5
51% 134 Harvard 36 29.4, 101 San Diego 14 28.7
48% 93 Virginia 45 31.9, 71 Ohio 31 32.4
46% 63 Fresno State 38 28.4, 72 California - Los Angel 14 29.3
45% 157 Alabama - Birmingham 31 27.8, 128 Tulane 24 28.7
43% 70 San Diego State 28 28.0, 55 Arizona State 21 29.1
43% 36 Boston College 41 29.2, 34 Wake Forest 34 31.0
42% 84 Troy State 24 31.6, 90 Nebraska 19 34.0
38% 188 Tennessee - Chattanoog 34 19.5, 184 Tennessee - Martin 24 22.0
37% 241 Jackson State 18 20.4, 212 Florida A&M 16 27.9
37% 224 North Carolina - Charl 28 25.8, 203 Old Dominion 25 28.4
37% 210 Indiana State 55 27.4, 206 Eastern Illinois 41 33.3
37% 124 Mercer 30 24.1, 110 Samford 24 29.2
37% 96 Weber State 27 26.3, 60 South Dakota 10 28.7
36% 92 Temple 35 27.7, 94 Maryland 14 31.2
35% 250 Incarnate Word 31 31.3, 229 Stephen F. Austin 7 40.0
35% 193 Bowling Green 42 29.6, 183 Eastern Kentucky 35 35.6
35% 168 Kansas 55 24.3, 119 Rutgers 14 29.6
35% 131 Nevada - Las Vegas 46 35.1, 114 Prairie View 17 39.1
34% 245 Duquesne 31 19.3, 196 Dayton 26 28.9
34% 187 Wyoming 17 18.8, 123 Wofford 14 25.5
34% 176 Holy Cross 31 23.1, 69 Yale 28 37.5
34% 161 Southeast Missouri Sta 48 23.1, 106 Southern Illinois 44 32.5
34% 107 Arkansas State 29 32.8, 99 Tulsa 20 38.6
34% 77 Pittsburgh 24 28.8, 32 Georgia Tech 19 35.5
33% 202 Connecticut 56 22.9, 145 Rhode Island 49 34.5
33% 179 Missouri State 40 28.1, 113 Northern Arizona 8 35.4
33% 155 Akron 39 17.7, 46 Northwestern 34 35.6
33% 105 North Texas 44 34.7, 86 Arkansas 17 42.7
33% 17 Louisiana State 22 18.8, 7 Auburn 21 29.2
32% 173 North Dakota 24 29.0, 100 Sam Houston State 23 44.3
29% 158 Towson 45 10.4, 85 Villanova 35 26.2
12% 130 Brigham Young 24 6.7, 10 Wisconsin 21 35.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.98 59 0.93 8 1.19 14 1.10 12 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 75 74.8 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net