prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 25 James Madison 51 39.3, 170 William & Mary 0 8.6
96% 43 South Florida 20 50.8, 154 East Carolina 13 27.3
96% 7 Auburn 34 46.8, 118 Arkansas 3 13.7
95% 49 Jacksonville State 48 47.2, 229 Tennessee Tech 20 9.6
95% 22 Memphis 52 51.2, 181 South Alabama 35 20.4
95% 2 Ohio State 49 53.2, 139 Tulane 6 10.8
94% 121 Colgate 45 31.1, 240 Lafayette 0 5.3
94% 40 Mississippi 38 48.3, 197 Kent State 17 20.2
94% 8 Washington 27 37.2, 50 Arizona State 20 17.4
93% 13 Miami - Florida 31 46.8, 125 Florida International 17 16.3
93% 4 Penn State 63 47.1, 137 Illinois 24 15.4
93% 3 Oklahoma 28 47.8, 73 Army 21 18.7
92% 79 Villanova 49 30.0, 222 Bucknell 7 4.0
92% 37 Syracuse 51 51.0, 201 Connecticut 21 19.7
92% 17 Central Florida 56 49.7, 99 Florida Atlantic 36 25.8
91% 11 Louisiana State 38 40.4, 88 Louisiana Tech 21 15.1
90% 1 Alabama 45 44.6, 24 Texas A&M 23 17.8
89% 81 Weber State 45 34.7, 178 Northern Colorado 28 16.0
88% 174 Alcorn State 56 45.6, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 16.4
88% 115 Montana State 43 42.9, 228 Portland State 23 23.8
88% 90 Eastern Washington 70 41.3, 180 California Poly 17 24.9
86% 65 Florida State 37 27.9, 113 Northern Illinois 19 14.4
85% 53 Appalachian State 72 39.7, 226 Gardner - Webb 7 8.6
85% 48 Houston 70 46.2, 246 Texas Southern 14 9.0
85% 21 Michigan 56 39.2, 98 Nebraska 10 17.2
82% 131 Prairie View 62 47.3, 251 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 22.1
81% 168 Texas - San Antonio 25 34.3, 224 Texas State - San Marc 21 17.7
79% 148 Western Carolina 52 46.9, 250 Virginia Military 50 19.6
79% 92 Troy State 35 36.2, 157 Northeast Louisiana 27 26.3
77% 16 North Dakota State 38 30.4, 106 Delaware 10 6.7
75% 134 Southern Mississippi 40 38.8, 167 Rice 22 27.5
75% 85 Montana 41 42.5, 130 Sacramento State 34 27.6
73% 57 Northern Iowa 44 38.8, 210 Hampton 0 11.3
72% 29 North Carolina State 37 33.2, 110 Marshall 20 23.1
70% 202 Dayton 42 44.3, 253 Davidson 21 17.3
70% 96 California - Davis 44 41.0, 183 Idaho 21 23.3
68% 78 Princeton 51 49.6, 150 Monmouth 9 33.4
68% 71 Temple 31 34.0, 105 Tulsa 17 26.2
68% 58 San Diego State 23 28.8, 103 Eastern Michigan 20 19.0
68% 31 Duke 55 37.0, 190 North Carolina Central 13 14.9
67% 221 Florida A&M 31 33.9, 239 Savannah State 13 22.5
67% 195 Southern 29 34.4, 245 Alabama A&M 27 20.1
67% 191 Bryant 49 38.3, 241 Robert Morris 46 21.1
67% 184 Grambling 34 31.6, 234 Alabama State 0 14.7
67% 164 Southeast Louisiana 30 39.6, 247 Lamar 24 22.6
67% 159 Tennessee State 41 36.8, 211 Eastern Illinois 40 25.5
67% 146 Western Kentucky 28 29.1, 199 Ball State 20 21.2
67% 144 Columbia 23 26.7, 235 Georgetown 15 12.2
67% 119 Pennsylvania 30 43.9, 173 Lehigh 10 31.3
67% 83 Baylor 26 37.6, 116 Kansas 7 28.5
67% 80 Illinois State 35 38.1, 171 Colorado State 19 23.4
67% 74 Utah State 42 37.3, 102 Air Force 32 30.7
67% 70 Toledo 63 43.4, 136 Nevada - Reno 44 29.1
67% 62 Hawaii 42 44.2, 227 Duquesne 21 28.2
67% 28 Iowa State 26 35.2, 147 Akron 13 14.6
67% 6 Clemson 49 32.5, 44 Georgia Tech 21 20.7
67% 5 Georgia 43 39.8, 34 Missouri 29 30.1
66% 198 Massachusetts 49 36.4, 213 North Carolina - Charl 31 30.8
66% 108 Western Michigan 34 35.1, 182 Georgia State 15 26.0
66% 100 Brigham Young 30 26.1, 185 McNeese State 3 12.8
66% 84 Arkansas State 27 39.3, 111 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 31.9
66% 30 West Virginia 35 34.8, 45 Kansas State 6 28.2
65% 104 Buffalo 42 31.2, 169 Rutgers 13 23.9
65% 82 Arizona 35 44.2, 140 Oregon State 14 38.5
65% 76 Yale 30 35.7, 194 Cornell 24 20.0
64% 133 Harvard 31 32.4, 216 Brown 17 18.5
64% 41 Florida 47 24.6, 93 Tennessee 21 20.6
64% 19 Stanford 38 32.4, 46 Oregon 31 28.2
63% 176 Sacred Heart 41 31.6, 207 Wagner 14 25.6
63% 135 Coastal Carolina 30 35.8, 175 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 31.7
63% 94 Stony Brook 36 28.9, 67 Richmond 10 26.9
63% 39 Southern California 39 28.9, 26 Washington State 36 26.7
62% 188 Central Connecticut 24 31.3, 217 Fordham 13 28.5
62% 177 Miami - Ohio 38 29.3, 205 Bowling Green 23 27.6
62% 36 Michigan State 35 26.1, 55 Indiana 21 23.8
61% 72 North Texas 47 36.4, 149 Liberty 7 34.2
60% 124 Dartmouth 34 29.8, 151 Holy Cross 14 26.6
56% 248 Stetson 19 29.7, 242 Marist 14 27.2
56% 27 Notre Dame 56 30.4, 47 Wake Forest 27 29.4
55% 77 Virginia 27 31.0, 51 Louisville 3 30.3
53% 161 Tennessee - Chattanoog 27 25.2, 122 Samford 20 24.5
48% 127 Elon 31 25.6, 158 Charleston Southern 22 26.4
48% 91 North Carolina 38 27.6, 86 Pittsburgh 35 28.0
47% 120 Cincinnati 34 26.4, 89 Ohio 30 27.1
45% 186 Albany 35 17.9, 162 Saint Francis - Pennsy 28 19.2
45% 18 Wisconsin 28 20.6, 20 Iowa 17 21.3
42% 165 Northern Arizona 31 25.4, 143 Southern Utah 23 26.9
42% 97 Maryland 42 25.2, 66 Minnesota 13 26.5
37% 238 Stephen F. Austin 24 26.2, 220 Abilene Christian 21 31.3
37% 192 Eastern Kentucky 23 29.0, 145 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 31.6
37% 189 Tennessee - Martin 37 27.3, 132 Austin Peay 7 31.0
37% 69 Purdue 30 24.3, 32 Boston College 13 29.3
37% 52 South Carolina 37 21.5, 61 Vanderbilt 14 24.3
36% 219 Norfolk State 17 17.1, 212 South Carolina State 7 22.8
36% 33 Texas 31 21.8, 12 Texas Christian 16 26.1
35% 196 Idaho State 25 25.8, 172 North Dakota 21 36.7
34% 223 East Tennessee State 29 21.8, 126 Furman 27 33.7
33% 243 New Mexico State 27 24.4, 231 Texas - El Paso 20 33.6
33% 208 Howard 41 27.5, 187 Bethune - Cookman 35 36.5
32% 156 Central Michigan 17 21.0, 101 Maine 5 31.7
32% 129 Southern Methodist 31 29.6, 59 Navy 30 39.7
31% 193 Nicholls State 27 29.0, 107 Sam Houston State 7 39.8
17% 179 The Citadel 38 18.2, 117 Mercer 31 31.5
14% 68 Kentucky 28 20.8, 10 Mississippi State 7 35.6
12% 38 Texas Tech 41 36.5, 9 Oklahoma State 17 53.7
5% 209 Old Dominion 49 9.0, 14 Virginia Tech 35 45.4
3% 233 Morgan State 16 10.3, 56 North Carolina A&T 13 46.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.75 55 1.14 8 1.33 13 0.90 19 0.95 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 81 77.7 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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