prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 54 Georgia Tech 63 51.0, 208 Bowling Green 17 19.4
97% 7 Auburn 24 42.8, 134 Southern Mississippi 13 8.1
97% 4 Georgia 38 42.8, 112 Tennessee 12 10.2
97% 1 Alabama 56 62.1, 173 Louisiana - Lafayette 14 4.2
95% 83 Montana 48 39.6, 189 California Poly 28 25.2
95% 6 Oklahoma 66 49.8, 78 Baylor 33 23.6
94% 135 Mercer 48 41.1, 239 Virginia Military 38 18.6
94% 17 Miami - Florida 47 38.6, 100 North Carolina 10 15.9
93% 128 Southern Methodist 63 64.5, 255 Houston Baptist 27 21.5
93% 21 Texas A&M 24 44.8, 137 Arkansas 17 22.7
92% 216 Butler 24 42.8, 251 Morehead State 21 23.6
92% 105 North Carolina A&T 31 25.8, 233 South Carolina State 16 0.9
92% 11 Oklahoma State 48 43.5, 106 Kansas 28 24.1
91% 118 Wofford 45 34.1, 240 Gardner - Webb 14 14.0
91% 102 Florida International 55 52.6, 252 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 9 16.5
90% 60 Jacksonville State 48 43.7, 147 Austin Peay 32 23.7
90% 45 Arizona State 52 46.5, 154 Oregon State 24 26.0
90% 41 Michigan State 31 35.3, 152 Central Michigan 20 11.3
89% 164 McNeese State 17 32.4, 245 Stephen F. Austin 10 9.9
89% 38 Appalachian State 52 41.4, 159 South Alabama 7 15.2
87% 98 Ohio 58 50.5, 179 Massachusetts 42 31.6
87% 26 Boise State 34 37.3, 169 Wyoming 14 15.3
87% 9 Washington 35 28.8, 66 Brigham Young 7 8.9
86% 110 Cincinnati 49 33.7, 200 Connecticut 7 18.4
86% 81 Wake Forest 56 45.2, 182 Rice 24 26.4
86% 51 Indiana 24 34.4, 185 Rutgers 17 17.3
86% 10 Louisiana State 45 39.8, 36 Mississippi 16 22.5
85% 162 Nicholls State 50 37.7, 243 Lamar 27 14.7
85% 56 Northern Iowa 33 43.8, 207 Indiana State 0 17.1
85% 20 Central Florida 45 44.5, 95 Pittsburgh 14 26.7
84% 5 Clemson 27 42.3, 39 Syracuse 23 23.9
83% 133 East Carolina 37 40.5, 172 Old Dominion 35 30.1
83% 14 James Madison 63 37.5, 94 Richmond 10 24.0
81% 71 Kennesaw State 24 36.7, 129 Samford 10 21.1
78% 80 Hawaii 44 43.8, 205 San Jose State 41 27.5
76% 158 Alabama - Birmingham 28 38.3, 214 North Carolina - Charl 7 22.7
74% 191 Bethune - Cookman 35 35.9, 247 Savannah State 20 21.8
74% 18 Texas Christian 17 30.0, 33 Iowa State 14 16.8
73% 8 Michigan 20 30.5, 53 Northwestern 17 16.9
71% 213 Norfolk State 54 33.9, 250 Delaware State 28 16.7
71% 116 San Diego 49 42.8, 248 Stetson 10 12.8
71% 96 Western Michigan 40 34.6, 175 Miami - Ohio 39 25.6
70% 160 Alcorn State 20 36.2, 206 Southern 3 28.1
70% 29 North Carolina State 35 33.0, 68 Virginia 21 22.3
68% 193 Texas - San Antonio 30 29.8, 238 Texas - El Paso 21 13.8
68% 103 Troy State 45 35.7, 126 Coastal Carolina 21 27.4
68% 55 Colorado 38 34.1, 97 California - Los Angel 16 23.7
67% 174 Monmouth 54 38.0, 211 Wagner 47 26.6
67% 131 Towson 44 31.3, 155 The Citadel 27 22.8
67% 127 Prairie View 22 36.6, 192 Grambling 16 28.8
67% 107 Elon 30 24.6, 150 New Hampshire 9 17.3
66% 180 Southeast Louisiana 24 33.8, 201 Northwestern State 17 26.1
66% 109 Colgate 23 23.8, 183 William & Mary 0 15.2
66% 63 Vanderbilt 31 31.4, 148 Tennessee State 27 21.1
66% 50 Princeton 45 37.0, 140 Columbia 10 26.1
66% 49 Fresno State 49 37.0, 69 Toledo 27 31.2
66% 48 Boston College 45 30.7, 59 Temple 35 22.5
66% 30 Washington State 28 28.0, 44 Utah 24 22.4
65% 198 Idaho 20 40.1, 228 Portland State 7 31.6
65% 89 Yale 35 28.5, 104 Maine 14 19.5
65% 47 Southern California 24 35.2, 85 Arizona 20 31.7
64% 176 Ball State 52 26.9, 181 Kent State 24 23.0
64% 130 Sam Houston State 34 34.4, 136 Central Arkansas 31 31.0
64% 72 Eastern Washington 34 37.3, 122 Montana State 17 33.6
63% 203 Drake 41 36.6, 237 Jacksonville 9 29.8
63% 178 Charleston Southern 48 27.6, 226 Hampton 14 21.8
63% 88 Western Illinois 45 26.3, 101 Youngstown State 38 23.8
63% 86 Stony Brook 29 23.0, 70 Villanova 27 19.7
63% 64 Purdue 42 30.1, 108 Nebraska 28 27.6
63% 58 Florida State 28 26.2, 73 Louisville 24 24.6
63% 31 Texas 19 25.3, 75 Kansas State 14 22.9
62% 77 South Dakota 31 37.2, 113 Southern Illinois 24 35.3
62% 23 West Virginia 42 41.6, 32 Texas Tech 34 39.7
62% 15 North Dakota State 21 29.8, 12 South Dakota State 17 26.6
61% 224 Brown 35 19.2, 230 Georgetown 7 16.7
61% 114 Dartmouth 37 27.5, 123 Pennsylvania 14 23.0
60% 149 Furman 44 37.5, 146 Western Carolina 38 35.2
60% 43 Kentucky 24 26.2, 34 South Carolina 10 24.6
57% 218 Campbell 30 45.3, 212 North Alabama 7 42.8
55% 62 Army 42 28.1, 79 Buffalo 13 27.3
52% 209 Eastern Illinois 52 32.0, 225 Tennessee Tech 38 31.8
51% 188 Georgia State 46 27.3, 161 Northeast Louisiana 14 27.1
46% 46 Oregon 42 33.8, 61 California 24 34.2
44% 25 Notre Dame 38 24.9, 13 Stanford 17 25.9
42% 153 Liberty 52 30.1, 157 New Mexico 43 31.5
39% 28 Virginia Tech 31 24.7, 24 Duke 14 26.6
38% 3 Ohio State 27 39.2, 2 Penn State 26 41.4
37% 196 Idaho State 56 28.8, 177 Northern Arizona 42 32.9
37% 186 North Dakota 38 24.5, 171 Northern Colorado 13 26.4
37% 139 Georgia Southern 28 26.6, 90 Arkansas State 21 28.9
37% 115 Marshall 20 25.1, 121 Western Kentucky 17 27.8
36% 194 Cornell 43 24.8, 151 Sacred Heart 24 30.0
35% 219 Florida A&M 55 19.1, 197 North Carolina Central 14 28.1
35% 125 Northern Illinois 26 22.9, 93 Eastern Michigan 23 27.8
34% 253 Davidson 40 23.4, 223 Valparaiso 35 39.3
34% 241 Alabama A&M 21 12.1, 244 Jackson State 16 19.3
34% 236 Incarnate Word 44 26.1, 227 Abilene Christian 34 37.0
34% 156 Middle Tennessee State 25 31.8, 99 Florida Atlantic 24 37.1
33% 229 Murray State 45 20.5, 163 Tennessee - Martin 38 31.6
32% 246 Marist 28 25.0, 202 Dayton 17 34.0
32% 166 Missouri State 24 20.5, 65 Illinois State 21 37.3
32% 143 Rhode Island 23 22.3, 119 Harvard 16 37.2
32% 84 Louisiana Tech 29 31.4, 42 North Texas 27 39.5
32% 35 Florida 13 20.2, 19 Mississippi State 6 30.3
30% 217 East Tennessee State 17 19.3, 141 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 30.9
23% 249 Lafayette 31 17.0, 195 Central Connecticut 24 27.5
19% 142 Nevada - Reno 28 29.8, 92 Air Force 25 41.5
8% 220 Bucknell 19 17.7, 170 Holy Cross 16 29.7
6% 145 Tulane 40 26.5, 27 Memphis 24 43.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.19 52 0.98 11 1.12 18 1.11 19 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 109 82 80.0 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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