prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 48 Kennesaw State 56 46.8, 252 Gardner - Webb 17 6.7
97% 22 Princeton 48 53.4, 230 Brown 10 6.9
96% 46 Jacksonville State 49 56.6, 209 Eastern Illinois 22 17.9
95% 206 Southeast Louisiana 62 56.9, 255 Houston Baptist 52 24.1
95% 167 Charleston Southern 58 60.1, 255 Houston Baptist 6 19.7
95% 10 Notre Dame 19 41.6, 107 Pittsburgh 14 19.2
95% 2 Ohio State 30 46.6, 67 Minnesota 14 15.4
94% 1 Alabama 39 54.8, 34 Missouri 10 23.4
93% 96 Samford 73 46.7, 232 Virginia Military 22 16.2
93% 70 Maryland 34 41.8, 203 Rutgers 7 16.6
92% 21 South Dakota State 36 44.1, 135 Youngstown State 7 22.5
91% 194 Howard 55 49.7, 251 Delaware State 13 27.4
90% 132 Montana State 24 37.1, 208 Idaho 23 15.9
90% 97 Western Michigan 42 46.4, 214 Bowling Green 35 30.7
90% 55 Army 52 38.8, 195 San Jose State 3 15.8
90% 29 Boise State 31 43.3, 159 Nevada - Reno 27 23.3
89% 89 Georgia Southern 15 39.3, 229 Texas State - San Marc 13 19.1
88% 39 Fresno State 27 30.1, 149 Wyoming 3 9.9
88% 37 Mississippi 37 45.2, 133 Arkansas 33 29.4
87% 131 Harvard 33 32.0, 192 Holy Cross 31 16.6
87% 78 Colgate 31 28.5, 155 Cornell 0 11.1
87% 35 Utah State 59 49.2, 143 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 27.8
87% 28 Texas 23 39.7, 74 Baylor 17 24.6
87% 25 Utah 42 35.6, 100 Arizona 10 18.5
86% 238 Jackson State 23 34.3, 253 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 17.1
86% 160 Central Arkansas 27 33.7, 243 Stephen F. Austin 17 15.4
86% 157 Louisiana - Lafayette 66 43.3, 207 New Mexico State 38 29.5
86% 66 Dartmouth 42 38.2, 163 Sacred Heart 0 19.7
86% 45 Houston 42 44.7, 164 East Carolina 20 27.8
85% 76 California - Davis 44 50.2, 141 Idaho State 37 34.1
85% 54 North Texas 30 36.3, 121 Southern Mississippi 7 22.2
85% 11 Iowa 42 30.5, 68 Indiana 16 19.7
83% 79 Towson 29 36.9, 204 William & Mary 13 18.1
81% 177 Monmouth 36 36.2, 231 Bucknell 19 22.5
79% 191 Grambling 34 33.4, 247 Texas Southern 21 18.0
79% 63 Northwestern 34 35.5, 115 Nebraska 31 23.9
79% 30 Appalachian State 35 36.1, 102 Arkansas State 9 23.5
77% 52 Boston College 38 36.9, 114 Louisville 20 24.6
75% 122 Sam Houston State 42 39.1, 200 Northwestern State 28 28.6
75% 13 North Dakota State 34 32.9, 106 Western Illinois 7 17.0
73% 150 San Diego 36 37.7, 196 Dayton 34 26.6
72% 84 Brigham Young 49 34.2, 98 Hawaii 23 26.1
68% 175 Alcorn State 35 28.5, 221 Alabama A&M 26 17.7
68% 144 Miami - Ohio 31 29.5, 176 Kent State 6 20.5
68% 75 Illinois State 51 34.5, 119 Southern Illinois 3 23.7
67% 223 Duquesne 48 36.6, 242 Robert Morris 24 21.1
67% 126 Alabama - Birmingham 42 37.0, 213 Rice 0 27.8
67% 91 Yale 35 34.8, 146 Mercer 28 23.9
67% 88 Florida International 24 36.2, 148 Middle Tennessee State 21 25.9
67% 61 South Florida 25 37.8, 113 Tulsa 24 30.8
67% 57 Purdue 46 31.1, 124 Illinois 7 21.9
67% 50 Virginia Tech 22 34.1, 127 North Carolina 19 22.1
67% 20 James Madison 37 29.9, 73 Villanova 0 19.7
66% 234 Marist 20 33.3, 250 Jacksonville 17 28.0
66% 128 Pennsylvania 13 29.6, 169 Columbia 10 20.9
66% 120 Missouri State 29 36.9, 173 Indiana State 26 31.6
66% 117 Southeast Missouri Sta 31 40.0, 140 Austin Peay 27 34.2
66% 109 Louisiana Tech 31 29.5, 188 Texas - San Antonio 3 21.1
66% 92 Buffalo 24 35.2, 138 Akron 6 27.7
66% 60 San Diego State 21 27.0, 82 Air Force 17 20.5
66% 18 Florida 37 25.5, 64 Vanderbilt 27 18.9
66% 15 Central Florida 31 46.5, 51 Memphis 30 40.6
66% 8 Michigan 38 27.4, 23 Wisconsin 13 19.0
65% 142 Tennessee - Chattanoog 26 33.6, 182 Western Carolina 6 29.0
65% 125 Marshall 42 34.3, 168 Old Dominion 20 30.2
65% 65 Northern Iowa 42 30.5, 90 South Dakota 28 26.3
64% 183 South Alabama 45 29.0, 228 Alabama State 7 24.3
64% 59 Temple 24 29.8, 129 Navy 17 24.8
63% 110 Northern Illinois 24 31.8, 105 Ohio 21 28.4
63% 104 Stony Brook 35 21.6, 136 New Hampshire 7 18.9
63% 56 Southern California 31 28.2, 43 Colorado 20 24.9
62% 190 Bethune - Cookman 28 22.1, 210 South Carolina State 26 19.9
58% 93 Delaware 28 23.8, 69 Elon 16 22.6
56% 33 Texas A&M 26 27.4, 42 South Carolina 23 26.5
53% 80 Eastern Michigan 28 37.8, 77 Toledo 26 37.4
51% 147 Richmond 27 32.1, 171 Albany 24 32.0
49% 186 Southern Utah 48 29.6, 162 Sacramento State 27 29.7
46% 237 Hampton 24 20.0, 239 Presbyterian 23 21.2
46% 26 Duke 28 31.4, 41 Georgia Tech 14 32.0
45% 216 Morgan State 18 26.1, 227 Savannah State 11 26.9
43% 233 Georgetown 13 16.2, 241 Lafayette 6 17.1
40% 137 Ball State 24 24.2, 154 Central Michigan 23 25.6
37% 244 Valparaiso 35 26.9, 226 Butler 17 28.9
37% 189 Eastern Kentucky 35 25.7, 172 Tennessee - Martin 34 29.7
37% 9 Louisiana State 36 24.2, 5 Georgia 16 26.4
36% 246 Morehead State 35 36.6, 249 Davidson 28 42.1
36% 165 Colorado State 20 34.6, 116 New Mexico 18 38.1
36% 152 Furman 34 28.5, 95 Wofford 14 33.7
36% 44 Iowa State 30 23.8, 12 West Virginia 14 27.8
35% 240 Lamar 27 35.9, 202 Incarnate Word 21 42.5
35% 145 Liberty 22 30.5, 87 Troy State 16 35.7
34% 219 Portland State 35 31.1, 193 Northern Colorado 14 36.6
34% 211 Central Connecticut 48 34.7, 198 Bryant 14 40.5
34% 187 East Tennessee State 26 22.7, 161 The Citadel 23 30.1
34% 166 North Dakota 41 22.3, 94 Montana 14 29.2
34% 134 Maine 38 23.8, 86 Rhode Island 36 30.3
34% 103 Weber State 14 28.2, 49 Eastern Washington 6 36.1
34% 53 Oregon 30 25.2, 7 Washington 27 32.6
33% 235 Wagner 23 21.3, 181 Saint Francis - Pennsy 22 33.9
33% 112 California - Los Angel 37 24.1, 99 California 7 32.7
32% 225 Abilene Christian 28 20.2, 158 Nicholls State 12 30.6
31% 217 Murray State 45 27.1, 139 Tennessee State 21 39.3
28% 81 Kansas State 31 28.4, 16 Oklahoma State 12 36.3
26% 222 North Carolina - Charl 40 17.4, 130 Western Kentucky 14 31.9
25% 245 Fordham 43 22.4, 205 Lehigh 14 33.3
24% 71 Virginia 16 22.4, 17 Miami - Florida 13 32.6
23% 36 Texas Tech 17 29.0, 19 Texas Christian 14 41.1
15% 248 Stetson 23 14.0, 184 Drake 21 32.5
14% 185 Florida A&M 22 14.2, 118 North Carolina A&T 21 30.1
12% 212 Southern 38 24.3, 151 Prairie View 0 40.0
12% 199 Northeast Louisiana 45 28.2, 123 Coastal Carolina 20 42.6
8% 62 Michigan State 21 18.3, 3 Penn State 17 43.8
6% 101 Tennessee 30 10.7, 24 Auburn 24 33.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.82 51 0.90 13 0.81 25 0.97 15 0.92 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 113 76 83.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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