prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 97% 47 Wisconsin 31 42.3, 201 Rutgers 17 7.7 97% 2 Clemson 77 53.6, 145 Louisville 16 9.0 96% 215 Grambling 24 44.8, 255 Mississippi Valley Sta 19 18.3 96% 28 South Dakota State 59 46.9, 147 Missouri State 7 20.1 96% 20 Fresno State 48 44.3, 164 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 18.3 95% 157 Nicholls State 41 48.8, 253 Houston Baptist 20 22.4 95% 103 Weber State 26 41.6, 226 Sacramento State 14 16.2 95% 5 Ohio State 36 51.9, 81 Nebraska 31 25.8 94% 113 Yale 46 36.9, 232 Brown 16 10.6 94% 17 Mississippi State 45 34.3, 110 Louisiana Tech 3 12.2 94% 6 North Dakota State 17 38.7, 155 Youngstown State 7 4.7 93% 73 Tennessee 14 38.5, 183 North Carolina - Charl 3 15.7 93% 65 Jacksonville State 21 44.8, 192 Tennessee - Martin 14 17.8 92% 124 North Carolina A&T 37 30.8, 237 Norfolk State 20 6.3 92% 45 California - Davis 42 50.1, 199 Northern Arizona 20 21.9 91% 49 Colgate 41 34.7, 233 Fordham 0 9.4 91% 40 Kennesaw State 49 41.4, 210 Campbell 0 9.8 91% 18 Utah State 56 51.9, 134 Hawaii 17 30.2 90% 69 Eastern Washington 48 44.4, 193 Northern Colorado 13 25.7 89% 78 Alabama - Birmingham 52 32.5, 196 Texas - San Antonio 3 12.1 89% 76 Toledo 45 44.6, 153 Ball State 13 27.8 89% 32 Boise State 21 35.8, 93 Brigham Young 16 20.0 87% 148 Tulsa 49 33.4, 218 Connecticut 19 16.5 87% 24 Washington State 19 36.8, 94 California 13 21.7 86% 206 Alabama A&M 45 44.8, 254 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 25.3 86% 60 Memphis 59 44.3, 161 East Carolina 41 31.5 86% 55 Southern California 38 44.0, 143 Oregon State 21 28.8 85% 39 Appalachian State 23 38.9, 132 Coastal Carolina 7 23.2 85% 14 Central Florida 52 38.7, 56 Temple 40 23.8 84% 197 Duquesne 47 38.2, 244 Wagner 30 25.1 84% 122 Arkansas State 38 38.5, 181 South Alabama 14 25.6 83% 174 Sacred Heart 38 43.0, 241 Robert Morris 7 24.1 83% 66 Cincinnati 42 34.1, 137 Navy 0 19.5 82% 127 Wyoming 24 28.9, 189 San Jose State 9 14.8 80% 36 Georgia Tech 38 39.7, 109 North Carolina 28 26.6 79% 219 Marist 35 34.6, 239 Valparaiso 24 25.0 79% 80 Eastern Michigan 17 32.2, 160 Central Michigan 7 18.4 79% 67 Oregon 42 39.1, 100 California - Los Angel 21 28.3 78% 97 Troy State 26 39.5, 107 Louisiana - Lafayette 16 28.6 78% 64 Delaware 21 36.9, 195 Albany 16 21.2 78% 44 Texas Christian 14 30.0, 90 Kansas State 13 17.2 75% 30 Iowa State 27 30.0, 91 Kansas 3 19.3 74% 139 Montana State 49 36.1, 177 California Poly 42 25.9 74% 114 Middle Tennessee State 29 31.4, 176 Western Kentucky 10 20.2 74% 10 Princeton 14 34.9, 46 Dartmouth 9 22.6 71% 235 Stetson 48 42.2, 248 Morehead State 24 31.9 71% 98 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 41.3, 162 Tennessee State 21 28.5 70% 85 Buffalo 51 31.9, 118 Miami - Ohio 42 22.7 69% 29 North Carolina State 47 32.8, 72 Florida State 28 22.9 68% 202 Saint Francis - Pennsy 27 34.6, 214 Bryant 14 26.2 68% 35 Army 17 32.1, 79 Air Force 14 22.6 68% 3 Oklahoma 51 48.5, 22 Texas Tech 46 40.4 67% 136 Holy Cross 40 28.9, 228 Lafayette 14 20.5 67% 115 Harvard 52 26.3, 165 Columbia 18 17.7 67% 95 San Diego State 31 28.6, 135 New Mexico 23 20.2 67% 75 Elon 24 33.4, 116 Rhode Island 21 24.6 67% 25 Notre Dame 31 30.4, 71 Northwestern 21 22.3 67% 21 Washington 27 26.0, 43 Stanford 23 16.8 67% 4 Georgia 34 27.2, 34 Kentucky 17 17.8 67% 1 Alabama 29 32.4, 8 Louisiana State 0 21.8 66% 194 Abilene Christian 49 31.4, 229 Northwestern State 47 24.3 66% 125 Montana 57 34.6, 208 Southern Utah 14 25.6 66% 104 Idaho State 48 40.3, 178 Portland State 45 32.7 66% 77 Samford 35 32.3, 106 Wofford 20 24.8 66% 41 Syracuse 41 48.5, 102 Wake Forest 24 39.6 66% 26 Auburn 28 26.6, 27 Texas A&M 24 20.2 66% 7 Michigan 42 32.1, 9 Penn State 7 26.4 65% 101 Northern Illinois 36 23.1, 133 Akron 26 18.3 64% 240 Alabama State 30 27.4, 238 Texas Southern 21 22.5 64% 120 Indiana State 51 37.6, 140 South Dakota 48 33.9 64% 99 Western Illinois 34 33.9, 129 Southern Illinois 31 31.0 63% 209 Bethune - Cookman 30 28.6, 227 Morgan State 28 26.2 62% 138 Furman 16 25.1, 141 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 23.5 62% 42 Boston College 31 32.4, 89 Virginia Tech 21 30.0 61% 70 Northern Iowa 26 25.4, 53 Illinois State 16 23.7 57% 170 Pennsylvania 20 24.1, 168 Cornell 7 23.0 54% 186 Kent State 35 32.3, 211 Bowling Green 28 31.7 52% 169 Monmouth 37 32.1, 142 Charleston Southern 3 31.9 50% 182 The Citadel 38 37.1, 187 Western Carolina 24 37.1 47% 247 Lehigh 45 24.7, 231 Bucknell 17 25.1 47% 151 San Diego 27 29.6, 175 Drake 10 30.0 47% 12 West Virginia 42 29.2, 33 Texas 41 29.6 46% 245 Gardner - Webb 38 19.6, 249 Presbyterian 20 20.4 45% 146 Southern Mississippi 26 23.5, 112 Marshall 24 24.1 44% 82 Ohio 59 37.3, 108 Western Michigan 14 38.1 43% 222 Southeast Louisiana 23 25.5, 200 McNeese State 6 26.8 38% 58 Michigan State 24 25.0, 59 Maryland 3 26.6 38% 23 Purdue 38 22.3, 11 Iowa 36 24.2 37% 251 Jacksonville 48 26.6, 246 Butler 44 29.3 37% 188 Howard 31 32.1, 159 Florida A&M 23 34.6 37% 184 Massachusetts 62 35.9, 130 Liberty 59 39.6 37% 144 Villanova 45 26.4, 123 Richmond 21 29.5 37% 87 Arizona 42 26.6, 61 Colorado 34 29.2 36% 224 Texas - El Paso 34 21.7, 223 Rice 26 25.9 35% 51 South Carolina 48 32.1, 50 Mississippi 44 37.0 34% 185 Incarnate Word 43 36.1, 166 Sam Houston State 26 43.0 34% 158 East Tennessee State 21 27.1, 149 Mercer 18 34.4 34% 54 Arizona State 38 25.7, 13 Utah 20 32.0 34% 15 Missouri 38 30.3, 16 Florida 17 35.8 33% 250 Jackson State 34 12.6, 207 Prairie View 28 23.5 33% 156 Illinois 55 24.6, 86 Minnesota 31 34.4 33% 74 Pittsburgh 23 22.2, 52 Virginia 13 30.6 32% 213 Texas State - San Marc 40 20.8, 172 Georgia State 31 31.7 32% 128 Florida Atlantic 49 27.1, 92 Florida International 14 36.5 32% 88 Baylor 35 35.2, 38 Oklahoma State 31 42.6 29% 119 Tulane 41 24.1, 96 South Florida 15 34.0 25% 190 Idaho 31 18.6, 117 North Dakota 27 30.6 24% 236 Tennessee Tech 27 27.4, 171 Murray State 24 40.3 24% 152 Maine 35 26.2, 68 Towson 28 38.8 24% 48 Duke 20 21.7, 31 Miami - Florida 12 30.6 22% 252 Delaware State 25 21.9, 204 Savannah State 6 35.1 15% 216 Eastern Kentucky 17 23.3, 131 Austin Peay 13 38.2 14% 126 Southern Methodist 45 32.4, 37 Houston 31 49.4 13% 217 Lamar 38 20.1, 150 Central Arkansas 24 40.8 13% 203 New Mexico State 52 25.5, 154 Alcorn State 42 42.5 12% 121 New Hampshire 35 11.5, 19 James Madison 24 30.8 11% 198 Northeast Louisiana 44 19.7, 84 Georgia Southern 25 36.1 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 11 0.50 46 0.90 19 0.91 22 0.85 19 1.07 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 117 78 87.1 0.90 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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