prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
97% 44 Appalachian State 45 41.7, 180 Georgia State 17 11.6
97% 37 Dartmouth 49 45.1, 238 Brown 7 3.6
97% 21 Washington 42 47.8, 143 Oregon State 23 16.0
97% 17 Penn State 20 44.4, 190 Rutgers 7 12.4
97% 15 South Dakota State 49 52.7, 140 South Dakota 27 23.7
97% 14 Louisiana State 42 49.2, 225 Rice 10 2.9
97% 8 Princeton 42 44.7, 179 Pennsylvania 14 10.0
97% 5 Oklahoma 55 53.4, 99 Kansas 40 21.5
97% 4 Georgia 66 58.6, 163 Massachusetts 27 15.6
97% 1 Alabama 50 59.0, 147 The Citadel 17 6.3
96% 7 North Dakota State 65 44.2, 126 Southern Illinois 17 10.9
96% 3 Michigan 31 41.5, 77 Indiana 20 13.3
96% 2 Clemson 35 43.5, 43 Duke 6 13.7
95% 115 Wofford 45 41.7, 252 Presbyterian 21 8.6
95% 86 Northern Iowa 37 37.6, 173 Missouri State 0 16.4
95% 76 Brigham Young 45 44.0, 203 New Mexico State 10 16.1
95% 68 California - Davis 56 50.4, 209 Sacramento State 13 22.7
94% 194 Sam Houston State 42 50.5, 255 Houston Baptist 20 24.6
94% 85 Troy State 12 37.1, 204 Texas State - San Marc 7 12.5
94% 30 Auburn 53 43.9, 136 Liberty 0 17.1
94% 11 Mississippi State 52 35.5, 104 Arkansas 6 11.0
93% 113 Marshall 23 34.6, 222 Texas - San Antonio 0 12.0
93% 28 Florida 63 43.7, 171 Idaho 10 15.9
93% 9 Utah State 29 53.7, 183 Colorado State 24 23.8
91% 35 Eastern Washington 74 40.8, 160 Portland State 23 19.9
91% 20 Iowa 63 41.6, 134 Illinois 0 18.9
90% 215 Alabama A&M 42 39.3, 254 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 21.4
90% 199 Drake 43 39.1, 251 Morehead State 6 21.9
90% 75 Toledo 56 42.8, 191 Kent State 34 25.7
90% 36 Boise State 45 42.2, 137 New Mexico 14 24.9
89% 146 East Carolina 55 37.9, 220 Connecticut 21 22.0
89% 22 Washington State 69 40.5, 78 Arizona 28 25.2
88% 110 Louisiana - Lafayette 48 45.6, 214 South Alabama 38 26.1
88% 94 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 49.3, 182 Eastern Illinois 32 30.7
88% 13 Fresno State 23 29.2, 105 San Diego State 14 9.5
87% 207 Prairie View 66 35.9, 249 Alabama State 13 21.0
87% 165 Dayton 34 46.2, 250 Jacksonville 7 28.7
86% 162 Alcorn State 24 28.5, 242 Jackson State 3 8.7
86% 159 Monmouth 56 38.1, 239 Gardner - Webb 42 23.5
86% 106 North Carolina 49 47.0, 198 Western Carolina 26 28.7
86% 88 Nevada - Reno 21 39.4, 188 San Jose State 12 25.0
86% 38 Temple 27 42.5, 120 South Florida 17 27.0
86% 12 Ohio State 52 38.6, 73 Maryland 51 26.2
85% 40 South Carolina 49 31.8, 154 Tennessee - Chattanoog 9 14.2
84% 247 Delaware State 41 42.1, 255 Houston Baptist 7 26.4
83% 122 North Carolina A&T 45 32.2, 223 North Carolina Central 0 17.3
83% 100 Arkansas State 31 38.4, 150 Northeast Louisiana 17 25.3
83% 47 North Carolina State 52 41.2, 164 Louisville 10 25.3
83% 46 Kentucky 34 29.8, 103 Middle Tennessee State 23 15.8
80% 25 Texas A&M 41 33.6, 71 Alabama - Birmingham 20 19.0
78% 156 Old Dominion 77 50.4, 236 Virginia Military 14 33.8
78% 67 Illinois State 35 28.2, 123 Youngstown State 28 15.8
76% 19 Central Florida 38 33.6, 50 Cincinnati 13 23.2
74% 197 South Carolina State 21 24.3, 228 Savannah State 17 13.1
72% 10 Missouri 50 35.9, 72 Tennessee 17 26.4
71% 193 Western Kentucky 40 28.1, 213 Texas - El Paso 16 17.4
71% 16 Utah 30 31.5, 87 Colorado 7 20.5
70% 145 Nicholls State 44 34.2, 205 Southeast Louisiana 0 22.3
68% 91 Samford 38 33.1, 151 East Tennessee State 27 23.6
67% 218 Eastern Kentucky 37 32.0, 244 Tennessee Tech 6 24.8
67% 153 California Poly 38 37.3, 219 Southern Utah 24 26.0
67% 141 Holy Cross 32 26.8, 226 Georgetown 31 16.9
67% 109 Florida International 42 29.5, 176 North Carolina - Charl 35 19.5
67% 82 North Texas 41 34.2, 108 Florida Atlantic 38 26.0
67% 62 Memphis 28 47.2, 116 Southern Methodist 18 40.8
67% 60 Houston 48 39.9, 102 Tulane 17 29.5
67% 48 Miami - Florida 38 30.6, 117 Virginia Tech 14 23.0
67% 39 Georgia Tech 30 34.7, 58 Virginia 27 25.5
66% 229 Stetson 45 36.3, 241 Valparaiso 31 29.6
66% 178 Sacred Heart 13 26.3, 211 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 19.1
66% 167 Tennessee State 31 32.5, 184 Tennessee - Martin 28 26.9
66% 158 San Diego 31 35.0, 210 Marist 14 28.4
66% 157 Columbia 24 28.0, 170 Cornell 21 21.8
66% 139 Hawaii 35 42.6, 148 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 37.5
66% 130 Navy 37 28.4, 149 Tulsa 29 22.6
66% 92 Harvard 45 31.3, 96 Yale 27 25.6
66% 55 Ohio 52 39.4, 66 Buffalo 17 32.7
66% 31 James Madison 38 37.7, 57 Towson 17 31.5
66% 26 Kennesaw State 60 32.8, 74 Jacksonville State 52 24.4
65% 121 Weber State 26 35.2, 131 Idaho State 13 29.6
65% 118 Georgia Southern 41 28.8, 152 Coastal Carolina 17 24.4
65% 51 Pittsburgh 34 37.8, 101 Wake Forest 13 31.7
65% 18 Notre Dame 36 39.4, 34 Syracuse 3 34.2
64% 217 Northwestern State 35 29.3, 245 Stephen F. Austin 23 25.8
64% 187 Austin Peay 48 33.4, 172 Murray State 23 30.7
64% 65 Texas Christian 16 29.5, 84 Baylor 9 25.6
64% 59 Oregon 31 37.0, 52 Arizona State 29 34.3
64% 24 Texas 24 25.5, 23 Iowa State 10 21.2
63% 232 Davidson 41 37.4, 248 Butler 38 34.2
63% 119 Maine 27 24.1, 114 Elon 26 21.5
61% 63 Northwestern 24 27.9, 83 Minnesota 14 26.2
60% 95 Rhode Island 24 26.1, 107 New Hampshire 21 24.9
55% 135 Southern Mississippi 21 23.8, 133 Louisiana Tech 20 23.2
48% 227 Fordham 17 22.3, 243 Bucknell 14 22.7
47% 196 Charleston Southern 12 16.9, 206 Campbell 7 17.5
47% 61 Vanderbilt 36 33.9, 49 Mississippi 29 34.2
45% 127 Furman 35 28.3, 144 Mercer 30 29.0
44% 235 Wagner 41 38.4, 240 Robert Morris 7 39.6
44% 70 Nebraska 9 26.3, 53 Michigan State 6 27.1
37% 192 Central Arkansas 16 27.6, 177 Abilene Christian 7 30.9
36% 233 Morgan State 44 15.8, 230 Norfolk State 27 20.2
36% 202 Lamar 21 22.0, 216 McNeese State 17 26.5
36% 89 Florida State 22 26.7, 42 Boston College 21 30.2
36% 79 Kansas State 21 30.4, 27 Texas Tech 6 34.4
36% 45 Army 28 16.1, 41 Colgate 14 21.1
35% 186 Duquesne 38 27.2, 169 Central Connecticut 31 31.8
35% 98 California - Los Angel 34 26.0, 64 Southern California 27 30.0
35% 56 Wisconsin 47 24.2, 32 Purdue 44 29.8
34% 231 Bryant 56 36.6, 181 Howard 55 45.3
34% 208 Bethune - Cookman 33 25.9, 166 Florida A&M 19 32.3
34% 195 Northern Arizona 31 22.3, 125 North Dakota 16 30.2
34% 175 Richmond 10 23.3, 161 William & Mary 6 29.2
34% 97 Indiana State 15 29.9, 111 Western Illinois 13 36.2
34% 33 Oklahoma State 45 36.2, 6 West Virginia 41 41.7
33% 237 Lehigh 34 22.4, 224 Lafayette 3 31.1
33% 174 Ball State 42 28.2, 128 Western Michigan 41 34.8
33% 138 Villanova 42 16.7, 93 Delaware 21 27.2
33% 132 Montana State 29 29.1, 124 Montana 25 36.0
33% 129 Wyoming 35 16.8, 69 Air Force 27 24.9
21% 112 Miami - Ohio 13 17.4, 80 Northern Illinois 7 28.0
14% 253 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 15 28.5, 246 Texas Southern 10 44.4
13% 201 Bowling Green 21 23.5, 142 Akron 6 36.2
13% 185 Albany 25 15.0, 54 Stony Brook 23 35.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.26 54 0.96 9 1.20 24 1.02 29 1.06 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 123 93 93.8 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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