prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
95% 30 South Carolina 28 42.9, 177 Akron 3 14.9
94% 43 North Carolina State 58 45.3, 147 East Carolina 3 19.6
94% 9 North Dakota State 52 39.8, 123 Montana State 10 7.8
93% 51 Appalachian State 30 41.5, 116 Louisiana - Lafayette 19 22.2
93% 2 Clemson 42 43.3, 49 Pittsburgh 10 18.5
92% 26 Eastern Washington 42 42.2, 134 Nicholls State 21 21.0
91% 29 Kennesaw State 13 41.1, 118 Wofford 10 21.1
90% 21 South Dakota State 51 44.0, 131 Duquesne 6 22.6
86% 11 Central Florida 56 46.2, 50 Memphis 41 32.0
85% 10 Ohio State 45 39.2, 66 Northwestern 24 24.9
83% 31 Iowa State 27 32.5, 198 Drake 24 11.3
79% 1 Alabama 35 36.0, 3 Georgia 28 24.4
67% 168 Liberty 52 34.7, 235 Norfolk State 17 24.5
67% 5 Oklahoma 39 45.4, 25 Texas 27 36.9
65% 137 The Citadel 43 26.9, 195 Charleston Southern 14 22.6
64% 160 Alcorn State 37 30.0, 157 Southern 28 26.7
64% 112 Virginia Tech 41 30.6, 93 Marshall 20 26.5
64% 63 California - Davis 23 30.6, 103 Northern Iowa 16 25.9
62% 36 Stanford 23 25.1, 61 California 13 23.2
61% 110 Weber State 48 28.0, 90 Southeast Missouri Sta 23 26.4
61% 89 Alabama - Birmingham 27 28.2, 77 Middle Tennessee State 25 26.7
54% 22 Washington 10 23.0, 18 Utah 3 22.5
50% 47 Colgate 23 20.2, 34 James Madison 20 20.2
48% 100 Northern Illinois 30 23.6, 76 Buffalo 29 23.8
36% 28 Fresno State 19 22.9, 24 Boise State 16 27.4
35% 117 Maine 55 25.8, 67 Jacksonville State 27 30.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.28 11 1.28 1 1.26 4 1.16 7 1.07 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 26 23 19.3 1.19
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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